{"locations":[{"code":"GLP","name":"Гваделупа","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/country/GLP/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости","unit":"детей на женщину"},{"id":"births","title":"Рождения","unit":"тыс. рождений в год"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Пользователи интернета","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Городское население","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"ВВП на душу населения по ППС","unit":"долл. 2021 года по ППС"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"Как менялись показатели","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР): 5,59 в 1950 → 2,09 в 2023 (−63%). Максимум — 5,86 в 1962; последнее значение на 64% ниже. Порог: ниже 2,1 — с 2023. Переломы тренда около 1966 и 1980 года: 0 → −0,24 → −0,01 в год.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.592,"last":2.089,"peak":{"year":1962,"value":5.856},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2023,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":0.00296,"slope_after":-0.239},{"year":1980,"slope_before":-0.239,"slope_after":-0.00622}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Рождения: 8,61 тыс. в 1950 → 4,23 тыс. в 2023 (−51%). Максимум — 11 тыс. в 1962; последнее значение на 61% ниже. Переломы тренда около 1966 и 1977 года: +0,16 тыс. → −0,3 тыс. → −0,06 тыс. в год.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":8.609,"last":4.233,"peak":{"year":1962,"value":10.95},"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":0.157,"slope_after":-0.304},{"year":1977,"slope_before":-0.304,"slope_after":-0.0619}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"Что менялось одновременно","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Самое быстрое снижение показателя «Рождаемость (СКР)» — в 1968–1978: 5,22 → 2,58. В эти же годы: рождения 10,5 тыс. → 6,57 тыс.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":5.218,"end":2.584,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":10.5,"end":6.573}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"За последние 10 лет (2013–2023): рождаемость (СКР) 2,22 → 2,09; рождения 5,32 тыс. → 4,23 тыс.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.216,"end":2.089,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":5.323,"end":4.233}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"Связь между показателями","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и рождения (1950–2023, 74 года): уровни сильно связаны, в одну сторону (r = 0,88); годовые изменения тоже связаны (r = 0,91). Изменения совпадают и год к году — это больше, чем общий тренд.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.877,"r_changes":0.914,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Прогнозы против факта","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 0 из 11 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — в 11; медиана расхождения +8,8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":2.1284,"gap_pct":12.02},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":2.1284,"gap_pct":12.02},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.865,"actual":2.1284,"gap_pct":14.12},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.859,"actual":2.1284,"gap_pct":14.49},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.957,"actual":2.1284,"gap_pct":8.76},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.957,"actual":2.1284,"gap_pct":8.76},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.993,"actual":2.1284,"gap_pct":6.79},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.027,"actual":2.1284,"gap_pct":5},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.105,"actual":2.1284,"gap_pct":1.11},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.92,"actual":2.1284,"gap_pct":10.85},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.018,"actual":2.089,"gap_pct":3.52}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":8.76,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 1,89 (−10% к 2023), 2100 — 1,78 (−15% к 2023); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 1,28.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.089},"values":{"2050":1.889,"2100":1.779},"low_2100":1.279}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 10 из 11 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — в 1; медиана расхождения −17%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.171,"actual":4.8818,"gap_pct":-31.92},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.003,"actual":4.8818,"gap_pct":-18.68},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.695,"actual":4.8818,"gap_pct":-14.28},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.659,"actual":4.8818,"gap_pct":-13.73},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.879,"actual":4.8818,"gap_pct":-16.96},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.16,"actual":4.8818,"gap_pct":-20.75},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.996,"actual":4.8818,"gap_pct":-18.58},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.073,"actual":4.8818,"gap_pct":-19.61},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.801,"actual":4.8818,"gap_pct":-15.85},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.856,"actual":4.8818,"gap_pct":0.53},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4.589,"actual":4.233,"gap_pct":-7.76}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-16.96,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Прогноз ООН 2002 года не ждал сегодняшнего уровня (4,23 тыс., 2023) до конца своего горизонта (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.233,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Прогноз ООН 2012 года не ждал сегодняшнего уровня (4,23 тыс., 2023) до конца своего горизонта (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.233,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 3,21 тыс. (−24% к 2023), 2100 — 2,17 тыс. (−49% к 2023); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 0,76 тыс.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4.233},"values":{"2050":3.214,"2100":2.165},"low_2100":0.757}}]}],"caveat":"Совпадение по времени не доказывает причину: на показатели действует много общего — доходы, города, образование, сама эпоха. Наблюдения подсказывают, куда смотреть, а не что чем вызвано.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/?c=GLP&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text — готовая формулировка с числами; data — те же числа для расчётов. Первый показатель — главный: с ним сравниваются остальные. Связь проверяется по уровням (r) и по изменениям год к году (r_changes: из изменений убран их линейный тренд, значимость с поправкой на автокорреляцию); lag — сдвиг, при котором изменения совпадают лучше. Ошибки ООН: факт / прогноз − 1; МВФ: факт − прогноз. view_url открывает тот же вид на сайте."}