{"locations":[{"code":"FIN","name":"Финляндия","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/country/FIN/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости","unit":"детей на женщину"},{"id":"births","title":"Рождения","unit":"тыс. рождений в год"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Пользователи интернета","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Городское население","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"ВВП на душу населения по ППС","unit":"долл. 2021 года по ППС"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"Как менялись показатели","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР): 3,15 в 1950 → 1,30 в 2025 (−59%). Пороги: ниже 2,1 — с 1969, ниже 1,5 — с 2017. Переломы тренда около 1975 и 2010 года: −0,07 → +0,01 → −0,04 в год.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":3.153,"last":1.3,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1969,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2017,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1975,"slope_before":-0.0657,"slope_after":0.0059},{"year":2010,"slope_before":0.0059,"slope_after":-0.0422}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Рождения: 98,4 тыс. в 1950 → 45,8 тыс. в 2025 (−53%). Переломы тренда около 1972 и 2012 года: −1,45 тыс. → −0,18 тыс. → −1,21 тыс. в год.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":98.37,"last":45.832,"breaks":[{"year":1972,"slope_before":-1.45,"slope_after":-0.184},{"year":2012,"slope_before":-0.184,"slope_after":-1.21}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Интернет: 0,4% в 1990 → 93,7% в 2024 (+93 п. п.). Пороги: выше 10% — с 1995, выше 50% — с 2002, выше 90% — с 2020. Быстрее всего рос в 1998–2003: 25,5% → 69,2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0.401,"last":93.7241,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1995,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1998,"to":2003,"start":25.5,"end":69.22}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Доля горожан: 55,6% в 1960 → 74,5% в 2025 (+19 п. п.). Переломы тренда около 1975 и 1992 года: +0,44 → +0,1 → +0,32 в год.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":55.577,"last":74.5248,"breaks":[{"year":1975,"slope_before":0.439,"slope_after":0.0987},{"year":1992,"slope_before":0.0987,"slope_after":0.316}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"ВВП на душу (ППС): 38 807 долл. ППС в 1990 → 55 735 долл. ППС в 2025 (+44%). Минимум — 34 487 долл. ППС в 1993; с тех пор +62%. Переломы тренда около 1996 и 2005 года: +381 → +1 776 → +97 в год.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":38807.1185,"last":55735.2175,"trough":{"year":1993,"value":34486.7523},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":381,"slope_after":1780},{"year":2005,"slope_before":1780,"slope_after":97.2}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"Что менялось одновременно","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Самое быстрое снижение показателя «Рождаемость (СКР)» — в 1963–1973: 2,68 → 1,50. В эти же годы: рождения 82 тыс. → 57 тыс.; доля горожан 57,4% → 61,6%; по остальным за эти годы данных нет.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":2.675,"end":1.501,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":82.03,"end":57.04},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":57.3763,"end":61.5516},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"За последние 10 лет (2015–2025): рождаемость (СКР) 1,65 → 1,30; рождения 55,2 тыс. → 45,8 тыс.; интернет 86,4% → 93,7%; доля горожан 71,3% → 74,5%; ВВП на душу (ППС) 52 782 долл. ППС → 55 735 долл. ППС.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.645,"end":1.3,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":55.2,"end":45.832},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":86.4221,"end":93.7241},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":71.3055,"end":74.5248},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":52782.4874,"end":55735.2175}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"Связь между показателями","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и рождения (1950–2025, 76 лет): уровни сильно связаны, в одну сторону (r = 0,96); годовые изменения тоже связаны (r = 0,94). Изменения совпадают и год к году — это больше, чем общий тренд.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.958,"r_changes":0.938,"effective_pairs_changes":52,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и интернет (1990–2024, 35 лет): уровни заметно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,48); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,08).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.476,"r_changes":0.079,"effective_pairs_changes":30,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и доля горожан (1960–2025, 66 лет): уровни сильно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,73); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = −0,34). Похоже на общий тренд: оба меняются со временем, но не синхронно год к году.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.727,"r_changes":-0.337,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и ВВП на душу (ППС) (1990–2025, 36 лет): уровни заметно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,49); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = −0,11).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.494,"r_changes":-0.111,"effective_pairs_changes":32,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Прогнозы против факта","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 12 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — ни в одном; медиана расхождения −27%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":1.3292,"gap_pct":-30.04},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.657,"actual":1.3292,"gap_pct":-19.78},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.773,"actual":1.3292,"gap_pct":-25.03},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.3292,"gap_pct":-28.15},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.3292,"gap_pct":-28.15},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.3292,"gap_pct":-28.15},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.932,"actual":1.3292,"gap_pct":-31.2},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.865,"actual":1.3292,"gap_pct":-28.73},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.78,"actual":1.3292,"gap_pct":-25.33},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.791,"actual":1.3292,"gap_pct":-25.78},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.419,"actual":1.3292,"gap_pct":-6.33},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.418,"actual":1.3,"gap_pct":-8.32}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-26.96,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 1,41 (+9% к 2025), 2100 — 1,51 (+16% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 1,01.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.3},"values":{"2050":1.414,"2100":1.509},"low_2100":1.009}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 12 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — ни в одном; медиана расхождения −23%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":57.659,"actual":45.5232,"gap_pct":-21.05},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":51.156,"actual":45.5232,"gap_pct":-11.01},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":55.267,"actual":45.5232,"gap_pct":-17.63},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":58.81,"actual":45.5232,"gap_pct":-22.59},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":59.457,"actual":45.5232,"gap_pct":-23.44},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":60.012,"actual":45.5232,"gap_pct":-24.14},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":62.523,"actual":45.5232,"gap_pct":-27.19},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":60.94,"actual":45.5232,"gap_pct":-25.3},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":59.06,"actual":45.5232,"gap_pct":-22.92},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":60.061,"actual":45.5232,"gap_pct":-24.21},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":47.672,"actual":45.5232,"gap_pct":-4.51},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":47.507,"actual":45.832,"gap_pct":-3.53}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-22.76,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Прогноз ООН 1998 года не ждал сегодняшнего уровня (45,8 тыс., 2025) до конца своего горизонта (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":45.832,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Прогноз ООН 2004 года не ждал сегодняшнего уровня (45,8 тыс., 2025) до конца своего горизонта (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":45.832,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Национальная статистика за 2025 год: 45,8 тыс. — на 4% выше среднего варианта ООН-2024 (43,9 тыс.).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":43.93,"actual_births_k":45.832,"gap_pct":4.3,"un_lower95_births_k":37.65,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Statistics Finland StatFin tables 12dj (births) and 12dt (TFR), updated 1 Jul 2026","source_url":"https://pxdata.stat.fi/PxWeb/api/v1/en/StatFin/synt/12dj.px"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 42,7 тыс. (−7% к 2025), 2100 — 35,1 тыс. (−23% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 13,7 тыс.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":45.832},"values":{"2050":42.66,"2100":35.1},"low_2100":13.7}}]}],"caveat":"Совпадение по времени не доказывает причину: на показатели действует много общего — доходы, города, образование, сама эпоха. Наблюдения подсказывают, куда смотреть, а не что чем вызвано.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/?c=FIN&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text — готовая формулировка с числами; data — те же числа для расчётов. Первый показатель — главный: с ним сравниваются остальные. Связь проверяется по уровням (r) и по изменениям год к году (r_changes: из изменений убран их линейный тренд, значимость с поправкой на автокорреляцию); lag — сдвиг, при котором изменения совпадают лучше. Ошибки ООН: факт / прогноз − 1; МВФ: факт − прогноз. view_url открывает тот же вид на сайте."}