{"locations":[{"code":"ESP","name":"Испания","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/country/ESP/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости","unit":"детей на женщину"},{"id":"births","title":"Рождения","unit":"тыс. рождений в год"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Пользователи интернета","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Городское население","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"ВВП на душу населения по ППС","unit":"долл. 2021 года по ППС"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"Как менялись показатели","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР): 2,47 в 1950 → 1,10 в 2024 (−55%). Максимум — 3,00 в 1964; последнее значение на 63% ниже. Пороги: ниже 2,1 — с 1981, ниже 1,5 — с 1987. Переломы тренда около 1972 и 1989 года: +0,03 → −0,1 → 0 в год.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2024,"first":2.47,"last":1.1,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":2.998},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1981,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":1987,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1972,"slope_before":0.0265,"slope_after":-0.104},{"year":1989,"slope_before":-0.104,"slope_after":-0.000322}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Рождения: 563 тыс. в 1950 → 321 тыс. в 2025 (−43%). Максимум — 692 тыс. в 1964; последнее значение на 54% ниже. Переломы тренда около 1975 и 1986 года: +4,27 тыс. → −24,6 тыс. → −1,11 тыс. в год.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":563,"last":321.442,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":692},"breaks":[{"year":1975,"slope_before":4.27,"slope_after":-24.6},{"year":1986,"slope_before":-24.6,"slope_after":-1.11}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Интернет: 0% в 1990 → 95,8% в 2024 (+96 п. п.). Пороги: выше 10% — с 2000, выше 50% — с 2006, выше 90% — с 2019. Быстрее всего рос в 1999–2004: 7,1% → 44%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0.0129,"last":95.7575,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2000,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2006,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2019,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1999,"to":2004,"start":7.09,"end":44.01}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Доля горожан: 56,5% в 1960 → 80,5% в 2025 (+24 п. п.). Порог: выше 75% — с 1991. Переломы тренда около 1971 и 1985 года: +1 → +0,48 → +0,17 в год.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":56.4544,"last":80.5149,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1991,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1971,"slope_before":0.997,"slope_after":0.478},{"year":1985,"slope_before":0.478,"slope_after":0.173}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"ВВП на душу (ППС): 31 773 долл. ППС в 1990 → 49 318 долл. ППС в 2025 (+55%). Переломы тренда около 2007 и 2013 года: +876 → −675 → +625 в год.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":31773.2267,"last":49318.1056,"breaks":[{"year":2007,"slope_before":876,"slope_after":-675},{"year":2013,"slope_before":-675,"slope_after":625}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"Что менялось одновременно","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Самое быстрое снижение показателя «Рождаемость (СКР)» — в 1976–1986: 2,76 → 1,55. В эти же годы: рождения 678 тыс. → 442 тыс.; доля горожан 69,6% → 73,8%; по остальным за эти годы данных нет.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1976,"to":1986,"start":2.764,"end":1.554,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1976,"to":1986,"start":678,"end":442.4},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1976,"to":1986,"start":69.6163,"end":73.804},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"За последние 10 лет (2014–2024): рождаемость (СКР) 1,32 → 1,10; рождения 425 тыс. → 317 тыс.; интернет 76,2% → 95,8%; доля горожан 79,1% → 80,3%; ВВП на душу (ППС) 41 339 долл. ППС → 48 460 долл. ППС.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":1.315,"end":1.1,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":424.7,"end":317.255},{"id":"internet_users","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":76.1867,"end":95.7575},{"id":"urban_population","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":79.1197,"end":80.3152},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":41339.4111,"end":48460.2914}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"Связь между показателями","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и рождения (1950–2024, 75 лет): уровни сильно связаны, в одну сторону (r = 0,97); годовые изменения тоже связаны (r = 0,92). Изменения совпадают и год к году — это больше, чем общий тренд.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2024,"years":75,"r_levels":0.973,"r_changes":0.921,"effective_pairs_changes":24,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и интернет (1990–2024, 35 лет): уровни почти не связаны (r = 0,18); годовые изменения связаны слабо (r = 0,48).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":0.179,"r_changes":0.477,"effective_pairs_changes":27,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и доля горожан (1960–2024, 65 лет): уровни сильно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,90); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,32). Похоже на общий тренд: оба меняются со временем, но не синхронно год к году.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2024,"years":65,"r_levels":-0.902,"r_changes":0.316,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и ВВП на душу (ППС) (1990–2024, 35 лет): уровни почти не связаны (r = 0,19); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,33).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":0.186,"r_changes":0.33,"effective_pairs_changes":32,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Прогнозы против факта","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 10 из 11 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — в 1; медиана расхождения −14%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.31,"actual":1.2769,"gap_pct":-2.53},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.216,"actual":1.2769,"gap_pct":5.01},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.3,"actual":1.2769,"gap_pct":-1.78},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.488,"actual":1.2769,"gap_pct":-14.19},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.546,"actual":1.2769,"gap_pct":-17.41},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.649,"actual":1.2769,"gap_pct":-22.57},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.585,"actual":1.2769,"gap_pct":-19.44},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.568,"actual":1.2769,"gap_pct":-18.57},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.382,"actual":1.2769,"gap_pct":-7.6},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.391,"actual":1.2769,"gap_pct":-8.2},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2024,"period":1,"expected":1.303,"actual":1.1,"gap_pct":-15.58}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-14.19,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 1,36 (+24% к 2024), 2100 — 1,48 (+35% к 2024); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 0,98.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2024,"value":1.1},"values":{"2050":1.362,"2100":1.483},"low_2100":0.983}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 9 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — в 3; медиана расхождения −8,5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":260.859,"actual":333.2952,"gap_pct":27.77},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":257.681,"actual":333.2952,"gap_pct":29.34},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":306.005,"actual":333.2952,"gap_pct":8.92},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":356.486,"actual":333.2952,"gap_pct":-6.51},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":390.232,"actual":333.2952,"gap_pct":-14.59},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":448.006,"actual":333.2952,"gap_pct":-25.6},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":432.29,"actual":333.2952,"gap_pct":-22.9},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":405.524,"actual":333.2952,"gap_pct":-17.81},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":364.114,"actual":333.2952,"gap_pct":-8.46},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":364.378,"actual":333.2952,"gap_pct":-8.53},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":368.148,"actual":333.2952,"gap_pct":-9.47},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":344.431,"actual":321.442,"gap_pct":-6.67}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":3,"median_gap_pct":-8.5,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Национальная статистика за 2025 год: 321 тыс. — на 3% ниже среднего варианта ООН-2024 (330 тыс.).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"provisional","un_medium_births_k":330,"actual_births_k":321.442,"gap_pct":-2.6,"un_lower95_births_k":276.6,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Eurostat demo_gind (births) / demo_find (TFR), retrieved 2026-10-01","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/demo_gind?format=JSON&lang=EN&indic_de=LBIRTH&sinceTimePeriod=2015&geo=ES"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 318 тыс. (−1% к 2025), 2100 — 245 тыс. (−24% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 93,1 тыс.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":321.442},"values":{"2050":317.7,"2100":244.7},"low_2100":93.09}}]}],"caveat":"Совпадение по времени не доказывает причину: на показатели действует много общего — доходы, города, образование, сама эпоха. Наблюдения подсказывают, куда смотреть, а не что чем вызвано.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/?c=ESP&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text — готовая формулировка с числами; data — те же числа для расчётов. Первый показатель — главный: с ним сравниваются остальные. Связь проверяется по уровням (r) и по изменениям год к году (r_changes: из изменений убран их линейный тренд, значимость с поправкой на автокорреляцию); lag — сдвиг, при котором изменения совпадают лучше. Ошибки ООН: факт / прогноз − 1; МВФ: факт − прогноз. view_url открывает тот же вид на сайте."}