{"locations":[{"code":"CZE","name":"Чехия","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/country/CZE/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости","unit":"детей на женщину"},{"id":"births","title":"Рождения","unit":"тыс. рождений в год"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Пользователи интернета","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Городское население","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"ВВП на душу населения по ППС","unit":"долл. 2021 года по ППС"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"Как менялись показатели","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР): 2,82 в 1950 → 1,28 в 2025 (−55%). Минимум — 1,14 в 1999; с тех пор +13%. Пороги: ниже 2,1 — с 1980, ниже 1,5 — с 2023. Переломы тренда около 1991 и 1997 года: −0,02 → −0,12 → +0,02 в год.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":2.818,"last":1.28,"trough":{"year":1999,"value":1.136},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1980,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2023,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1991,"slope_before":-0.0168,"slope_after":-0.117},{"year":1997,"slope_before":-0.117,"slope_after":0.0199}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Рождения: 189 тыс. в 1950 → 77,6 тыс. в 2025 (−59%). Максимум — 195 тыс. в 1974; последнее значение на 60% ниже. Переломы тренда около 1978 и 1996 года: +0,29 тыс. → −3,53 тыс. → +0,23 тыс. в год.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":189.1,"last":77.636,"peak":{"year":1974,"value":195.3},"breaks":[{"year":1978,"slope_before":0.292,"slope_after":-3.53},{"year":1996,"slope_before":-3.53,"slope_after":0.228}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Интернет: 0% в 1990 → 87,7% в 2024 (+88 п. п.). Пороги: выше 10% — с 2001, выше 50% — с 2007. Быстрее всего рос в 2005–2010: 35,3% → 68,8%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":87.6878,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2001,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2007,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2005,"to":2010,"start":35.27,"end":68.82}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Доля горожан: 59,6% в 1960 → 72,9% в 2025 (+13 п. п.). Переломы тренда около 1975 и 1982 года: +0,53 → +1,2 → −0,08 в год.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":59.5591,"last":72.8754,"breaks":[{"year":1975,"slope_before":0.532,"slope_after":1.19},{"year":1982,"slope_before":1.19,"slope_after":-0.0776}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"ВВП на душу (ППС): 27 918 долл. ППС в 1990 → 49 292 долл. ППС в 2025 (+77%). Минимум — 24 574 долл. ППС в 1993; с тех пор +101%. Переломы тренда около 2000 и 2006 года: +346 → +1 399 → +656 в год.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":27918.1375,"last":49292.4879,"trough":{"year":1993,"value":24573.9915},"breaks":[{"year":2000,"slope_before":346,"slope_after":1400},{"year":2006,"slope_before":1400,"slope_after":656}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"Что менялось одновременно","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Самое быстрое снижение показателя «Рождаемость (СКР)» — в 1988–1998: 1,93 → 1,16. В эти же годы: рождения 131 тыс. → 90 тыс.; интернет 3,9% (1998); доля горожан 75,3% → 74,3%; ВВП на душу (ППС) 27 801 долл. ППС (1998).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1988,"to":1998,"start":1.928,"end":1.156,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1988,"to":1998,"start":130.9,"end":89.96},{"id":"internet_users","year":1998,"value":3.9},{"id":"urban_population","from":1988,"to":1998,"start":75.3103,"end":74.2547},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1998,"value":27801.4388}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"За последние 10 лет (2015–2025): рождаемость (СКР) 1,59 → 1,28; рождения 111 тыс. → 77,6 тыс.; интернет 75,7% → 87,7%; доля горожан 73% → 72,9%; ВВП на душу (ППС) 42 067 долл. ППС → 49 292 долл. ППС.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.589,"end":1.28,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":110.9,"end":77.636},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":75.6688,"end":87.6878},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":73.037,"end":72.8754},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":42066.576,"end":49292.4879}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"Связь между показателями","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и рождения (1950–2025, 76 лет): уровни сильно связаны, в одну сторону (r = 0,93); годовые изменения тоже связаны (r = 0,93). Изменения совпадают и год к году — это больше, чем общий тренд.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.928,"r_changes":0.934,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и интернет (1990–2024, 33 года): уровни заметно связаны, в одну сторону (r = 0,56); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,29).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":33,"r_levels":0.561,"r_changes":0.29,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и доля горожан (1960–2025, 66 лет): уровни заметно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,56); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = −0,20).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.556,"r_changes":-0.198,"effective_pairs_changes":53,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и ВВП на душу (ППС) (1990–2025, 36 лет): уровни почти не связаны (r = 0,34); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,25).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":0.336,"r_changes":0.247,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Прогнозы против факта","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 7 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — в 5; медиана расхождения −3,6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.425,"actual":1.5542,"gap_pct":9.07},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.449,"actual":1.5542,"gap_pct":7.26},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.51,"actual":1.5542,"gap_pct":2.93},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.425,"actual":1.5542,"gap_pct":9.07},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.396,"actual":1.5542,"gap_pct":11.33},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.624,"actual":1.5542,"gap_pct":-4.3},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.653,"actual":1.5542,"gap_pct":-5.98},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.712,"actual":1.5542,"gap_pct":-9.22},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.602,"actual":1.5542,"gap_pct":-2.98},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.631,"actual":1.5542,"gap_pct":-4.71},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.682,"actual":1.5542,"gap_pct":-7.6},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.701,"actual":1.28,"gap_pct":-24.75}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-3.64,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Прогноз ООН 1998 года ждал такого уровня (1,28) уже около 2012 года — реальность отстаёт от него на 13 лет.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":1.28,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2012,"years":13,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Прогноз ООН 2004 года ждал такого уровня (1,28) уже около 2012 года — реальность отстаёт от него на 13 лет.","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":1.28,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2012,"years":13,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 1,57 (+22% к 2025), 2100 — 1,62 (+26% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 1,12.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.28},"values":{"2050":1.566,"2100":1.616},"low_2100":1.116}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 7 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — в 5; медиана расхождения −3,8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":70.856,"actual":95.7618,"gap_pct":35.15},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":75.756,"actual":95.7618,"gap_pct":26.41},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":79.121,"actual":95.7618,"gap_pct":21.03},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":78.408,"actual":95.7618,"gap_pct":22.13},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":78.658,"actual":95.7618,"gap_pct":21.74},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":99.276,"actual":95.7618,"gap_pct":-3.54},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":107.753,"actual":95.7618,"gap_pct":-11.13},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":108.95,"actual":95.7618,"gap_pct":-12.1},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":99.749,"actual":95.7618,"gap_pct":-4},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":101.113,"actual":95.7618,"gap_pct":-5.29},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":104.167,"actual":95.7618,"gap_pct":-8.07},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":96.896,"actual":77.636,"gap_pct":-19.88}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-3.77,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Прогноз ООН 1998 года ждал такого уровня (77,6 тыс.) уже около 2016 года — реальность отстаёт от него на 9 лет.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":77.636,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2016,"years":9,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Прогноз ООН 2017 года не ждал сегодняшнего уровня (77,6 тыс., 2025) до конца своего горизонта (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":77.636,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Национальная статистика за 2025 год: 77,6 тыс. — на 11% ниже среднего варианта ООН-2024 (86,9 тыс.).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"provisional","un_medium_births_k":86.93,"actual_births_k":77.636,"gap_pct":-10.7,"un_lower95_births_k":76.01,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Eurostat demo_gind (births) / demo_find (TFR), retrieved 2026-10-01","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/demo_gind?format=JSON&lang=EN&indic_de=LBIRTH&sinceTimePeriod=2015&geo=CZ"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 89,1 тыс. (+15% к 2025), 2100 — 69,9 тыс. (−10% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 27,7 тыс.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":77.636},"values":{"2050":89.06,"2100":69.91},"low_2100":27.71}}]}],"caveat":"Совпадение по времени не доказывает причину: на показатели действует много общего — доходы, города, образование, сама эпоха. Наблюдения подсказывают, куда смотреть, а не что чем вызвано.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/?c=CZE&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text — готовая формулировка с числами; data — те же числа для расчётов. Первый показатель — главный: с ним сравниваются остальные. Связь проверяется по уровням (r) и по изменениям год к году (r_changes: из изменений убран их линейный тренд, значимость с поправкой на автокорреляцию); lag — сдвиг, при котором изменения совпадают лучше. Ошибки ООН: факт / прогноз − 1; МВФ: факт − прогноз. view_url открывает тот же вид на сайте."}