{"locations":[{"code":"CHN","name":"Китай","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/country/CHN/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости","unit":"детей на женщину"},{"id":"births","title":"Рождения","unit":"тыс. рождений в год"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Пользователи интернета","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Городское население","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"ВВП на душу населения по ППС","unit":"долл. 2021 года по ППС"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"Как менялись показатели","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР): 5,81 в 1950 → 1,00 в 2023 (−83%). Максимум — 7,51 в 1963; последнее значение на 87% ниже. Пороги: ниже 2,1 — с 1991, ниже 1,5 — с 2019. Переломы тренда около 1970 и 1977 года: +0,02 → −0,49 → −0,03 в год.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.813,"last":1,"peak":{"year":1963,"value":7.513},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1991,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2019,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1970,"slope_before":0.0168,"slope_after":-0.492},{"year":1977,"slope_before":-0.492,"slope_after":-0.0335}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Рождения: 22,3 млн в 1950 → 7,92 млн в 2025 (−64%). Максимум — 33,5 млн в 1963; последнее значение на 76% ниже. Перелом тренда около 1968 года: направление сменилось (+329 тыс. → −291 тыс. в год).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":22293,"last":7920,"peak":{"year":1963,"value":33461},"breaks":[{"year":1968,"slope_before":329,"slope_after":-291}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Интернет: 0% в 1990 → 91,6% в 2025 (+92 п. п.). Пороги: выше 10% — с 2006, выше 50% — с 2015, выше 90% — с 2023. Быстрее всего рос в 2019–2024: 64,1% → 92%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":0,"last":91.6,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2006,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2015,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2023,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2019,"to":2024,"start":64.0809,"end":92}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Доля горожан: 19,7% в 1960 → 66,3% в 2025 (+47 п. п.). Минимум — 16,8% в 1963; с тех пор +50 п. п. Порог: выше 50% — с 2011. Переломы тренда около 1976 и 1995 года: −0,09 → +0,68 → +1,3 в год.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":19.7456,"last":66.343,"trough":{"year":1963,"value":16.8363},"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2011,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":-0.0921,"slope_after":0.677},{"year":1995,"slope_before":0.677,"slope_after":1.32}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"ВВП на душу (ППС): 1 667 долл. ППС в 1990 → 25 067 долл. ППС в 2025 (×15). Перелом тренда около 2003 года: изменение ускорилось (+261 → +757 в год).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":1666.8141,"last":25066.5215,"breaks":[{"year":2003,"slope_before":261,"slope_after":757}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"Что менялось одновременно","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Самое быстрое снижение показателя «Рождаемость (СКР)» — в 1968–1978: 6,51 → 2,72. В эти же годы: рождения 31,7 млн → 20,2 млн; доля горожан 17,6% → 17,9%; по остальным за эти годы данных нет.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":6.508,"end":2.716,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":31650,"end":20249},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":17.6204,"end":17.9152},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"За последние 10 лет (2013–2023): рождаемость (СКР) 1,71 → 1,00; рождения 18,3 млн → 8,9 млн; интернет 45,8% → 90,6%; доля горожан 54,5% → 65,5%; ВВП на душу (ППС) 13 081 долл. ППС → 22 687 долл. ППС.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.714,"end":1,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":18297,"end":8900},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":45.8,"end":90.6},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":54.49,"end":65.5301},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":13080.8788,"end":22687.252}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"Связь между показателями","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и рождения (1950–2023, 74 года): уровни сильно связаны, в одну сторону (r = 0,80); годовые изменения тоже связаны (r = 0,95). Изменения совпадают и год к году — это больше, чем общий тренд.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.799,"r_changes":0.954,"effective_pairs_changes":47,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и интернет (1990–2023, 32 года): уровни заметно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,47); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = −0,13).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":32,"r_levels":-0.47,"r_changes":-0.132,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и доля горожан (1960–2023, 64 года): уровни заметно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,69); годовые изменения связаны слабо (r = −0,34).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.689,"r_changes":-0.338,"effective_pairs_changes":56,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и ВВП на душу (ППС) (1990–2023, 34 года): уровни заметно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,53); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,14).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.533,"r_changes":0.135,"effective_pairs_changes":31,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Прогнозы против факта","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 9 из 11 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — в 2; медиана расхождения −12%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":1.611,"gap_pct":-15.21},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":1.611,"gap_pct":-15.21},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.611,"gap_pct":-12.92},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.611,"gap_pct":-12.92},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.825,"actual":1.611,"gap_pct":-11.73},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.837,"actual":1.611,"gap_pct":-12.3},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.511,"actual":1.611,"gap_pct":6.62},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.694,"actual":1.611,"gap_pct":-4.9},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.591,"actual":1.611,"gap_pct":1.26},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.635,"actual":1.611,"gap_pct":-1.47},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.19,"actual":1,"gap_pct":-15.97}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":2,"median_gap_pct":-12.3,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 1,18 (+18% к 2023), 2100 — 1,35 (+35% к 2023); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 0,85.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1},"values":{"2050":1.184,"2100":1.345},"low_2100":0.846}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 12 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — ни в одном; медиана расхождения −40%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":17592.779,"actual":9647.5,"gap_pct":-45.16},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":17442.979,"actual":9647.5,"gap_pct":-44.69},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":16972.775,"actual":9647.5,"gap_pct":-43.16},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":16637.684,"actual":9647.5,"gap_pct":-42.01},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":17379.817,"actual":9647.5,"gap_pct":-44.49},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":16694.726,"actual":9647.5,"gap_pct":-42.21},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":13744.84,"actual":9647.5,"gap_pct":-29.81},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":15282.851,"actual":9647.5,"gap_pct":-36.87},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":13875.861,"actual":9647.5,"gap_pct":-30.47},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":14803.892,"actual":9647.5,"gap_pct":-34.83},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":15420.031,"actual":9647.5,"gap_pct":-37.44},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":10441.801,"actual":7920,"gap_pct":-24.15}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-39.72,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Прогноз ООН 2002 года не ждал сегодняшнего уровня (7,92 млн, 2025) до конца своего горизонта (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":7920,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Прогноз ООН 2022 года ждал сегодняшнего уровня (7,92 млн, 2025) только около 2064 года — реальность обогнала его на 39 лет.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":7920,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2064,"years":39,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Национальная статистика за 2025 год: 7,92 млн — на 9% ниже среднего варианта ООН-2024 (8,71 млн).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"estimate","un_medium_births_k":8709,"actual_births_k":7920,"gap_pct":-9.1,"un_lower95_births_k":6496,"below_lower95":false,"source":"National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), Statistical Communiqué on National Economic and Social Development","source_url":"https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202602/t20260228_1962662.html"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 7,37 млн (−7% к 2025), 2100 — 3,1 млн (−61% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 643 тыс.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":7920},"values":{"2050":7371,"2100":3100},"low_2100":643.1}}]}],"caveat":"Совпадение по времени не доказывает причину: на показатели действует много общего — доходы, города, образование, сама эпоха. Наблюдения подсказывают, куда смотреть, а не что чем вызвано.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/?c=CHN&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text — готовая формулировка с числами; data — те же числа для расчётов. Первый показатель — главный: с ним сравниваются остальные. Связь проверяется по уровням (r) и по изменениям год к году (r_changes: из изменений убран их линейный тренд, значимость с поправкой на автокорреляцию); lag — сдвиг, при котором изменения совпадают лучше. Ошибки ООН: факт / прогноз − 1; МВФ: факт − прогноз. view_url открывает тот же вид на сайте."}