{"locations":[{"code":"CAN","name":"Канада","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/country/CAN/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости","unit":"детей на женщину"},{"id":"births","title":"Рождения","unit":"тыс. рождений в год"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Пользователи интернета","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Городское население","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"ВВП на душу населения по ППС","unit":"долл. 2021 года по ППС"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"Как менялись показатели","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР): 3,37 в 1950 → 1,26 в 2025 (−63%). Максимум — 3,86 в 1959; последнее значение на 67% ниже. Пороги: ниже 2,1 — с 1972, ниже 1,5 — с 2019. Переломы тренда около 1960 и 1973 года: +0,05 → −0,17 → −0,01 в год.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":3.374,"last":1.26,"peak":{"year":1959,"value":3.855},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1972,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2019,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1960,"slope_before":0.0487,"slope_after":-0.169},{"year":1973,"slope_before":-0.169,"slope_after":-0.00537}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Рождения: 359 тыс. в 1950 → 373 тыс. в 2025 (+4%). Максимум — 464 тыс. в 1959; последнее значение на 20% ниже. Переломы тренда около 1961 и 1967 года: +10,1 тыс. → −20,7 тыс. → +0,28 тыс. в год.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":359.1,"last":372.521,"peak":{"year":1959,"value":463.5},"breaks":[{"year":1961,"slope_before":10.1,"slope_after":-20.7},{"year":1967,"slope_before":-20.7,"slope_after":0.278}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Интернет: 0,4% в 1990 → 94,4% в 2024 (+94 п. п.). Пороги: выше 10% — с 1997, выше 50% — с 2000, выше 90% — с 2015. Быстрее всего рос в 1996–2001: 6,8% → 60,2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0.361,"last":94.3533,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1997,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2000,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2015,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1996,"to":2001,"start":6.76,"end":60.2}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Доля горожан: 69% в 1960 → 82,9% в 2025 (+14 п. п.). Порог: выше 75% — с 1969. Переломы тренда около 1969 и 1982 года: +0,76 → −0,02 → +0,17 в год.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":69.0418,"last":82.8757,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1969,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":0.76,"slope_after":-0.0199},{"year":1982,"slope_before":-0.0199,"slope_after":0.174}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"ВВП на душу (ППС): 40 475 долл. ППС в 1990 → 57 990 долл. ППС в 2025 (+43%). Минимум — 39 023 долл. ППС в 1992; с тех пор +49%. Переломы тренда около 1996 и 2003 года: +469 → +1 358 → +321 в год.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":40475.0964,"last":57989.5785,"trough":{"year":1992,"value":39023.1668},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":469,"slope_after":1360},{"year":2003,"slope_before":1360,"slope_after":321}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"Что менялось одновременно","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Самое быстрое снижение показателя «Рождаемость (СКР)» — в 1962–1972: 3,68 → 1,94. В эти же годы: рождения 453 тыс. → 337 тыс.; доля горожан 70,4% → 76%; по остальным за эти годы данных нет.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1962,"to":1972,"start":3.678,"end":1.938,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1962,"to":1972,"start":452.8,"end":336.7},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1962,"to":1972,"start":70.4488,"end":76.0211},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"За последние 10 лет (2015–2025): рождаемость (СКР) 1,60 → 1,26; рождения 385 тыс. → 373 тыс.; интернет 90% → 94,4%; доля горожан 81,2% → 82,9%; ВВП на душу (ППС) 55 661 долл. ППС → 57 990 долл. ППС.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.601,"end":1.26,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":384.6,"end":372.521},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":90,"end":94.3533},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":81.2466,"end":82.8757},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":55660.8456,"end":57989.5785}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"Связь между показателями","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и рождения (1950–2025, 76 лет): уровни сильно связаны, в одну сторону (r = 0,74); годовые изменения тоже связаны (r = 0,86). Изменения совпадают и год к году — это больше, чем общий тренд.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.737,"r_changes":0.864,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и интернет (1990–2024, 35 лет): уровни заметно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,57); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = −0,11).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.566,"r_changes":-0.112,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и доля горожан (1960–2025, 66 лет): уровни сильно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,81); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = −0,46). Похоже на общий тренд: оба меняются со временем, но не синхронно год к году.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.807,"r_changes":-0.46,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и ВВП на душу (ППС) (1990–2025, 36 лет): уровни заметно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,62); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,10).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.621,"r_changes":0.101,"effective_pairs_changes":35,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Прогнозы против факта","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 12 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — ни в одном; медиана расхождения −16%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.855,"actual":1.3483,"gap_pct":-27.32},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.738,"actual":1.3483,"gap_pct":-22.42},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.547,"actual":1.3483,"gap_pct":-12.84},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.613,"actual":1.3483,"gap_pct":-16.41},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.602,"actual":1.3483,"gap_pct":-15.84},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.715,"actual":1.3483,"gap_pct":-21.38},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.763,"actual":1.3483,"gap_pct":-23.52},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.737,"actual":1.3483,"gap_pct":-22.38},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.555,"actual":1.3483,"gap_pct":-13.29},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.557,"actual":1.3483,"gap_pct":-13.4},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.484,"actual":1.3483,"gap_pct":-9.14},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.481,"actual":1.26,"gap_pct":-14.92}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-16.13,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 1,39 (+10% к 2025), 2100 — 1,49 (+19% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 0,99.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.26},"values":{"2050":1.389,"2100":1.494},"low_2100":0.994}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 11 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — в 1; медиана расхождения −6,8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":424.436,"actual":363.0109,"gap_pct":-14.47},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":388.899,"actual":363.0109,"gap_pct":-6.66},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":352.531,"actual":363.0109,"gap_pct":2.97},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":385.85,"actual":363.0109,"gap_pct":-5.92},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":378.413,"actual":363.0109,"gap_pct":-4.07},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":412.597,"actual":363.0109,"gap_pct":-12.02},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":421.328,"actual":363.0109,"gap_pct":-13.84},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":425.336,"actual":363.0109,"gap_pct":-14.65},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":390.029,"actual":363.0109,"gap_pct":-6.93},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":392.04,"actual":363.0109,"gap_pct":-7.4},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":388.124,"actual":363.0109,"gap_pct":-6.47},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":387.306,"actual":372.521,"gap_pct":-3.82}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-6.79,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Национальная статистика за 2025 год: 373 тыс. — на 3% выше среднего варианта ООН-2024 (361 тыс.).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"provisional","un_medium_births_k":361.1,"actual_births_k":372.521,"gap_pct":3.2,"un_lower95_births_k":293.9,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Statistics Canada tables 13-10-0414-01 and 13-10-0418-01","source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1310041401"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 380 тыс. (+2% к 2025), 2100 — 452 тыс. (+21% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 207 тыс.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":372.521},"values":{"2050":380.3,"2100":451.8},"low_2100":207.1}}]}],"caveat":"Совпадение по времени не доказывает причину: на показатели действует много общего — доходы, города, образование, сама эпоха. Наблюдения подсказывают, куда смотреть, а не что чем вызвано.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/?c=CAN&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text — готовая формулировка с числами; data — те же числа для расчётов. Первый показатель — главный: с ним сравниваются остальные. Связь проверяется по уровням (r) и по изменениям год к году (r_changes: из изменений убран их линейный тренд, значимость с поправкой на автокорреляцию); lag — сдвиг, при котором изменения совпадают лучше. Ошибки ООН: факт / прогноз − 1; МВФ: факт − прогноз. view_url открывает тот же вид на сайте."}