{"locations":[{"code":"CAF","name":"Центрально-африканская республика","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/country/CAF/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости","unit":"детей на женщину"},{"id":"births","title":"Рождения","unit":"тыс. рождений в год"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Пользователи интернета","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Городское население","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"ВВП на душу населения по ППС","unit":"долл. 2021 года по ППС"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"Как менялись показатели","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР): 5,93 в 1950 → 6,01 в 2023 (+1%). Переломы тренда около 1987 и 2001 года: +0,01 → −0,02 → +0,02 в год.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.93,"last":6.012,"breaks":[{"year":1987,"slope_before":0.0056,"slope_after":-0.0213},{"year":2001,"slope_before":-0.0213,"slope_after":0.0151}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Рождения: 65,2 тыс. в 1950 → 239 тыс. в 2023 (×3,7).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":65.22,"last":238.9}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Интернет: 0% в 1990 → 13,8% в 2024 (+14 п. п.). Порог: выше 10% — с 2022. Быстрее всего рос в 2017–2022: 4% → 13,8%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":13.7825,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2022,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2017,"to":2022,"start":4,"end":13.7536}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Доля горожан: 20,1% в 1960 → 44,6% в 2025 (+24 п. п.). Переломы тренда около 1978 и 2012 года: +0,95 → +0,08 → +0,45 в год.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":20.1234,"last":44.5532,"breaks":[{"year":1978,"slope_before":0.953,"slope_after":0.0769},{"year":2012,"slope_before":0.0769,"slope_after":0.448}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"ВВП на душу (ППС): 1 481 долл. ППС в 1990 → 1 123 долл. ППС в 2025 (−24%). Максимум — 1 578 долл. ППС в 2012; последнее значение на 29% ниже.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":1481.2526,"last":1122.7608,"peak":{"year":2012,"value":1577.9805}}}]},{"id":"together","title":"Что менялось одновременно","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Самый быстрый рост показателя «Рождаемость (СКР)» — в 2004–2014: 5,78 → 6,10. В эти же годы: рождения 174 тыс. → 206 тыс.; интернет 0,2% → 2,7%; доля горожан 38% → 39,6%; ВВП на душу (ППС) 1 236 долл. ППС → 1 002 долл. ППС.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2004,"to":2014,"start":5.784,"end":6.099,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2004,"to":2014,"start":174.2,"end":206.4},{"id":"internet_users","from":2004,"to":2014,"start":0.2234,"end":2.7},{"id":"urban_population","from":2004,"to":2014,"start":37.9627,"end":39.6227},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2004,"to":2014,"start":1236.2853,"end":1001.856}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"За последние 10 лет (2013–2023): рождаемость (СКР) 6,08 → 6,01; рождения 207 тыс. → 239 тыс.; интернет 2,5% → 13,8%; доля горожан 39,3% → 43,7%; ВВП на душу (ППС) 997 долл. ППС → 1 133 долл. ППС.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":6.075,"end":6.012,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":207.3,"end":238.9},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.5,"end":13.8417},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":39.3043,"end":43.6984},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":996.8964,"end":1132.6764}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"Связь между показателями","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и рождения (1950–2023, 74 года): уровни почти не связаны (r = 0,08); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,09).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.079,"r_changes":0.089,"effective_pairs_changes":36,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и интернет (1990–2023, 27 лет): уровни заметно связаны, в одну сторону (r = 0,50); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = −0,29).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":27,"r_levels":0.495,"r_changes":-0.287,"effective_pairs_changes":24,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и доля горожан (1960–2023, 64 года): уровни почти не связаны (r = 0,01); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = −0,23).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":0.01,"r_changes":-0.229,"effective_pairs_changes":13,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и ВВП на душу (ППС) (1990–2023, 34 года): уровни почти не связаны (r = −0,31); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,00).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.314,"r_changes":-0.002,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Прогнозы против факта","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 0 из 11 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — в 11; медиана расхождения +59%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.408,"actual":6.1089,"gap_pct":79.25},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.79,"actual":6.1089,"gap_pct":61.18},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.662,"actual":6.1089,"gap_pct":66.82},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.673,"actual":6.1089,"gap_pct":66.32},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.673,"actual":6.1089,"gap_pct":66.32},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.847,"actual":6.1089,"gap_pct":58.8},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.024,"actual":6.1089,"gap_pct":51.81},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.994,"actual":6.1089,"gap_pct":52.95},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.016,"actual":6.1089,"gap_pct":52.11},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.754,"actual":6.1089,"gap_pct":28.5},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":5.83,"actual":6.012,"gap_pct":3.12}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":58.8,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 3,36 (−44% к 2023), 2100 — 2,03 (−66% к 2023); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 1,53.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":6.012},"values":{"2050":3.362,"2100":2.027},"low_2100":1.527}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 1 из 11 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — в 10; медиана расхождения +28%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":150.217,"actual":211.66,"gap_pct":40.9},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":166.245,"actual":211.66,"gap_pct":27.32},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":153.179,"actual":211.66,"gap_pct":38.18},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":153.993,"actual":211.66,"gap_pct":37.45},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":165.121,"actual":211.66,"gap_pct":28.18},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":157.932,"actual":211.66,"gap_pct":34.02},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":167.322,"actual":211.66,"gap_pct":26.5},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":163.768,"actual":211.66,"gap_pct":29.24},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":167.193,"actual":211.66,"gap_pct":26.6},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":165.835,"actual":211.66,"gap_pct":27.63},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":243.462,"actual":238.9,"gap_pct":-1.87}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":28.18,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Прогноз ООН 2017 года не ждал сегодняшнего уровня (239 тыс., 2023) до конца своего горизонта (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":238.9,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Прогноз ООН 2022 года ждал такого уровня (239 тыс.) уже около 2022 года — реальность отстаёт от него на 1 год.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":238.9,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 304 тыс. (+27% к 2023), 2100 — 277 тыс. (+16% к 2023); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 141 тыс.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":238.9},"values":{"2050":304,"2100":276.6},"low_2100":141.3}}]}],"caveat":"Совпадение по времени не доказывает причину: на показатели действует много общего — доходы, города, образование, сама эпоха. Наблюдения подсказывают, куда смотреть, а не что чем вызвано.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/?c=CAF&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text — готовая формулировка с числами; data — те же числа для расчётов. Первый показатель — главный: с ним сравниваются остальные. Связь проверяется по уровням (r) и по изменениям год к году (r_changes: из изменений убран их линейный тренд, значимость с поправкой на автокорреляцию); lag — сдвиг, при котором изменения совпадают лучше. Ошибки ООН: факт / прогноз − 1; МВФ: факт − прогноз. view_url открывает тот же вид на сайте."}