{"locations":[{"code":"AUT","name":"Австрия","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/country/AUT/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости","unit":"детей на женщину"},{"id":"births","title":"Рождения","unit":"тыс. рождений в год"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Пользователи интернета","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Городское население","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"ВВП на душу населения по ППС","unit":"долл. 2021 года по ППС"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"Как менялись показатели","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР): 2,09 в 1950 → 1,30 в 2025 (−38%). Максимум — 2,82 в 1963; последнее значение на 54% ниже. Порог: ниже 1,5 — с 2018. Переломы тренда около 1963 и 1978 года: +0,07 → −0,09 → 0 в год.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":2.089,"last":1.3,"peak":{"year":1963,"value":2.817},"thresholds":[{"threshold":1.5,"year":2018,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1963,"slope_before":0.0743,"slope_after":-0.0922},{"year":1978,"slope_before":-0.0922,"slope_after":-0.00365}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Рождения: 108 тыс. в 1950 → 76,1 тыс. в 2025 (−29%). Максимум — 135 тыс. в 1963; последнее значение на 44% ниже. Переломы тренда около 1964 и 1976 года: +2,69 тыс. → −3,9 тыс. → −0,24 тыс. в год.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":107.5,"last":76.067,"peak":{"year":1963,"value":134.8},"breaks":[{"year":1964,"slope_before":2.69,"slope_after":-3.9},{"year":1976,"slope_before":-3.9,"slope_after":-0.24}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Интернет: 0,1% в 1990 → 91,9% в 2025 (+92 п. п.). Пороги: выше 10% — с 1998, выше 50% — с 2004, выше 90% — с 2021. Быстрее всего рос в 2002–2007: 36,6% → 69,4%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":0.13,"last":91.9257,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1998,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2004,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2021,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2002,"to":2007,"start":36.56,"end":69.37}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Доля горожан: 49,9% в 1960 → 69,7% в 2025 (+20 п. п.). Порог: выше 50% — с 1961. Переломы тренда около 1980 и 1991 года: +0,22 → +1 → +0,11 в год.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":49.9006,"last":69.7152,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1961,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1980,"slope_before":0.224,"slope_after":1.02},{"year":1991,"slope_before":1.02,"slope_after":0.114}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"ВВП на душу (ППС): 43 258 долл. ППС в 1990 → 63 970 долл. ППС в 2025 (+48%). Перелом тренда около 2007 года: изменение замедлилось (+1 009 → +281 в год).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":43258.1144,"last":63970.4009,"breaks":[{"year":2007,"slope_before":1010,"slope_after":281}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"Что менялось одновременно","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Самое быстрое снижение показателя «Рождаемость (СКР)» — в 1967–1977: 2,63 → 1,62. В эти же годы: рождения 128 тыс. → 85 тыс.; доля горожан 51% → 53,5%; по остальным за эти годы данных нет.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":2.629,"end":1.623,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":127.7,"end":85.01},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":51.0003,"end":53.5194},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"За последние 10 лет (2015–2025): рождаемость (СКР) 1,49 → 1,30; рождения 83,6 тыс. → 76,1 тыс.; интернет 83,9% → 91,9%; доля горожан 67,6% → 69,7%; ВВП на душу (ППС) 60 952 долл. ППС → 63 970 долл. ППС.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.492,"end":1.3,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":83.58,"end":76.067},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":83.9401,"end":91.9257},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":67.5576,"end":69.7152},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":60951.6037,"end":63970.4009}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"Связь между показателями","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и рождения (1950–2025, 76 лет): уровни сильно связаны, в одну сторону (r = 0,98); годовые изменения тоже связаны (r = 0,94). Изменения совпадают и год к году — это больше, чем общий тренд.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.975,"r_changes":0.94,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и интернет (1990–2025, 36 лет): уровни почти не связаны (r = −0,15); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,04).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.148,"r_changes":0.043,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и доля горожан (1960–2025, 66 лет): уровни сильно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,84); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = −0,01). Похоже на общий тренд: оба меняются со временем, но не синхронно год к году.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.835,"r_changes":-0.005,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и ВВП на душу (ППС) (1990–2025, 36 лет): уровни почти не связаны (r = −0,22); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,08).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.224,"r_changes":0.077,"effective_pairs_changes":35,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Прогнозы против факта","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 11 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — в 1; медиана расхождения −12%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.65,"actual":1.3751,"gap_pct":-16.66},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.352,"actual":1.3751,"gap_pct":1.71},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.45,"actual":1.3751,"gap_pct":-5.17},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.58,"actual":1.3751,"gap_pct":-12.97},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.545,"actual":1.3751,"gap_pct":-11},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.505,"actual":1.3751,"gap_pct":-8.63},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.433,"actual":1.3751,"gap_pct":-4.04},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.574,"actual":1.3751,"gap_pct":-12.64},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.578,"actual":1.3751,"gap_pct":-12.86},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.561,"actual":1.3751,"gap_pct":-11.91},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.571,"actual":1.3751,"gap_pct":-12.47},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.491,"actual":1.3,"gap_pct":-12.81}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-12.19,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 1,43 (+10% к 2025), 2100 — 1,52 (+17% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 1,02.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.3},"values":{"2050":1.431,"2100":1.519},"low_2100":1.019}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 5 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — в 7; медиана расхождения +2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":75.345,"actual":80.2973,"gap_pct":6.57},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":59.527,"actual":80.2973,"gap_pct":34.89},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":67.948,"actual":80.2973,"gap_pct":18.17},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":74.318,"actual":80.2973,"gap_pct":8.05},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":78.938,"actual":80.2973,"gap_pct":1.72},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":78.533,"actual":80.2973,"gap_pct":2.25},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":74.758,"actual":80.2973,"gap_pct":7.41},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":86.051,"actual":80.2973,"gap_pct":-6.69},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":84.818,"actual":80.2973,"gap_pct":-5.33},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":85.62,"actual":80.2973,"gap_pct":-6.22},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":90.049,"actual":80.2973,"gap_pct":-10.83},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":83.176,"actual":76.067,"gap_pct":-8.55}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":1.98,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Прогноз ООН 1998 года ждал такого уровня (76,1 тыс.) уже около 2020 года — реальность отстаёт от него на 5 лет.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":76.067,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2020,"years":5,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Прогноз ООН 2022 года ждал сегодняшнего уровня (76,1 тыс., 2025) только около 2043 года — реальность обогнала его на 18 лет.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":76.067,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2043,"years":18,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Национальная статистика за 2025 год: 76,1 тыс. — на 1% выше среднего варианта ООН-2024 (75,4 тыс.).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":75.38,"actual_births_k":76.067,"gap_pct":0.9,"un_lower95_births_k":65.2,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Statistik Austria press release, 29 Jun 2026","source_url":"https://www.statistik.at/fileadmin/announcement/2026/06/20260629Demographie.pdf"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 69,9 тыс. (−8% к 2025), 2100 — 58,2 тыс. (−24% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 23,4 тыс.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":76.067},"values":{"2050":69.94,"2100":58.17},"low_2100":23.39}}]}],"caveat":"Совпадение по времени не доказывает причину: на показатели действует много общего — доходы, города, образование, сама эпоха. Наблюдения подсказывают, куда смотреть, а не что чем вызвано.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/?c=AUT&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text — готовая формулировка с числами; data — те же числа для расчётов. Первый показатель — главный: с ним сравниваются остальные. Связь проверяется по уровням (r) и по изменениям год к году (r_changes: из изменений убран их линейный тренд, значимость с поправкой на автокорреляцию); lag — сдвиг, при котором изменения совпадают лучше. Ошибки ООН: факт / прогноз − 1; МВФ: факт − прогноз. view_url открывает тот же вид на сайте."}