{"locations":[{"code":"AUS","name":"Австралия","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/country/AUS/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Суммарный коэффициент рождаемости","unit":"детей на женщину"},{"id":"births","title":"Рождения","unit":"тыс. рождений в год"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Пользователи интернета","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Городское население","unit":"% населения"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"ВВП на душу населения по ППС","unit":"долл. 2021 года по ППС"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"Как менялись показатели","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР): 3,06 в 1950 → 1,48 в 2024 (−52%). Максимум — 3,54 в 1961; последнее значение на 58% ниже. Пороги: ниже 2,1 — с 1976, ниже 1,5 — с 2024. Переломы тренда около 1961 и 1979 года: +0,04 → −0,09 → 0 в год.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2024,"first":3.063,"last":1.481,"peak":{"year":1961,"value":3.542},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1976,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2024,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1961,"slope_before":0.0392,"slope_after":-0.0875},{"year":1979,"slope_before":-0.0875,"slope_after":-0.0047}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Рождения: 189 тыс. в 1950 → 290 тыс. в 2025 (+53%). Переломы тренда около 1972 и 1978 года: +3,12 тыс. → −5,56 тыс. → +1,84 тыс. в год.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":188.8,"last":289.6,"breaks":[{"year":1972,"slope_before":3.12,"slope_after":-5.56},{"year":1978,"slope_before":-5.56,"slope_after":1.84}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Интернет: 0,6% в 1990 → 96,1% в 2024 (+96 п. п.). Пороги: выше 10% — с 1997, выше 50% — с 2001, выше 90% — с 2018. Быстрее всего рос в 1996–2001: 3,3% → 52,7%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0.585,"last":96.1314,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1997,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2001,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2018,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1996,"to":2001,"start":3.28,"end":52.6893}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Доля горожан: 81,6% в 1960 → 87,7% в 2025 (+6,1 п. п.). Переломы тренда около 1973 и 1999 года: +0,35 → −0,04 → +0,11 в год.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":81.5939,"last":87.7193,"breaks":[{"year":1973,"slope_before":0.352,"slope_after":-0.0362},{"year":1999,"slope_before":-0.0362,"slope_after":0.106}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"ВВП на душу (ППС): 36 268 долл. ППС в 1990 → 60 194 долл. ППС в 2025 (+66%). Перелом тренда около 2005 года: изменение замедлилось (+1 213 → +527 в год).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":36267.7411,"last":60194.0634,"breaks":[{"year":2005,"slope_before":1210,"slope_after":527}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"Что менялось одновременно","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Самое быстрое снижение показателя «Рождаемость (СКР)» — в 1971–1981: 2,95 → 1,94. В эти же годы: рождения 280 тыс. → 235 тыс.; доля горожан 85,6% → 85,7%; по остальным за эти годы данных нет.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1971,"to":1981,"start":2.948,"end":1.94,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1971,"to":1981,"start":279.9,"end":235.2},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1971,"to":1981,"start":85.5579,"end":85.7072},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"За последние 10 лет (2014–2024): рождаемость (СКР) 1,81 → 1,48; рождения 300 тыс. → 292 тыс.; интернет 84% → 96,1%; доля горожан 86,7% → 87,6%; ВВП на душу (ППС) 55 489 долл. ППС → 60 310 долл. ППС.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":1.805,"end":1.481,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":300.3,"end":292.318},{"id":"internet_users","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":84,"end":96.1314},{"id":"urban_population","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":86.7221,"end":87.6021},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":55489.0688,"end":60309.5832}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"Связь между показателями","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и рождения (1950–2024, 75 лет): уровни заметно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,64); годовые изменения тоже связаны (r = 0,85). Изменения совпадают и год к году — это больше, чем общий тренд.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2024,"years":75,"r_levels":-0.636,"r_changes":0.851,"effective_pairs_changes":48,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и интернет (1990–2024, 32 года): уровни почти не связаны (r = −0,35); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,04).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":32,"r_levels":-0.346,"r_changes":0.044,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и доля горожан (1960–2024, 65 лет): уровни сильно связаны, в разные стороны (r = −0,82); годовые изменения надёжной связи не показывают (r = 0,07). Похоже на общий тренд: оба меняются со временем, но не синхронно год к году.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2024,"years":65,"r_levels":-0.816,"r_changes":0.068,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Рождаемость (СКР) и ВВП на душу (ППС) (1990–2024, 35 лет): уровни почти не связаны (r = −0,38); годовые изменения связаны слабо (r = 0,47).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.384,"r_changes":0.471,"effective_pairs_changes":32,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Прогнозы против факта","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 10 из 11 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — в 1; медиана расхождения −6,6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":1.7288,"gap_pct":-9.01},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.818,"actual":1.7288,"gap_pct":-4.91},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.695,"actual":1.7288,"gap_pct":1.99},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.843,"actual":1.7288,"gap_pct":-6.2},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.7288,"gap_pct":-6.55},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.7288,"gap_pct":-6.55},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.97,"actual":1.7288,"gap_pct":-12.24},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.872,"actual":1.7288,"gap_pct":-7.65},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.861,"actual":1.7288,"gap_pct":-7.1},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.832,"actual":1.7288,"gap_pct":-5.63},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2024,"period":1,"expected":1.603,"actual":1.481,"gap_pct":-7.61}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-6.55,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождаемость (СКР): прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 1,64 (+11% к 2024), 2100 — 1,63 (+10% к 2024); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 1,13.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2024,"value":1.481},"values":{"2050":1.638,"2100":1.632},"low_2100":1.132}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прошлые прогнозы ООН. Факт оказался ниже прогноза в 6 из 12 выпусков (1998–2022), выше — в 6; медиана расхождения −0,8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":272.427,"actual":299.3236,"gap_pct":9.87},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":276.499,"actual":299.3236,"gap_pct":8.25},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":259.237,"actual":299.3236,"gap_pct":15.46},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":290.079,"actual":299.3236,"gap_pct":3.19},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":284.236,"actual":299.3236,"gap_pct":5.31},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":287.571,"actual":299.3236,"gap_pct":4.09},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":335.192,"actual":299.3236,"gap_pct":-10.7},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":324.289,"actual":299.3236,"gap_pct":-7.7},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":324.655,"actual":299.3236,"gap_pct":-7.8},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":317.978,"actual":299.3236,"gap_pct":-5.87},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":316.494,"actual":299.3236,"gap_pct":-5.43},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":304.069,"actual":289.6,"gap_pct":-4.76}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":-0.78,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Национальная статистика за 2025 год: 290 тыс. — на 5% ниже среднего варианта ООН-2024 (304 тыс.).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"provisional","un_medium_births_k":304.3,"actual_births_k":289.6,"gap_pct":-4.8,"un_lower95_births_k":270.9,"below_lower95":false,"source":"ABS, National, state and territory population, March 2026 (released 17 Sep 2026), Table 1 (310101.xlsx)","source_url":"https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/mar-2026"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Рождения: прогноз ООН-2024 (средний вариант): 2050 — 332 тыс. (+15% к 2025), 2100 — 408 тыс. (+41% к 2025); низкий вариант на 2100 год — 198 тыс.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":289.6},"values":{"2050":332.4,"2100":408.1},"low_2100":198.2}}]}],"caveat":"Совпадение по времени не доказывает причину: на показатели действует много общего — доходы, города, образование, сама эпоха. Наблюдения подсказывают, куда смотреть, а не что чем вызвано.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/?c=AUS&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text — готовая формулировка с числами; data — те же числа для расчётов. Первый показатель — главный: с ним сравниваются остальные. Связь проверяется по уровням (r) и по изменениям год к году (r_changes: из изменений убран их линейный тренд, значимость с поправкой на автокорреляцию); lag — сдвиг, при котором изменения совпадают лучше. Ошибки ООН: факт / прогноз − 1; МВФ: факт − прогноз. view_url открывает тот же вид на сайте."}