{"locations":[{"code":"ZWE","name":"Zimbabwe","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/ZWE/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.04 in 1950 → 3.72 in 2023 (−47%). The trend broke around 1978 and 1996: −0.01 → −0.16 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.041,"last":3.724,"breaks":[{"year":1978,"slope_before":-0.0116,"slope_after":-0.161},{"year":1996,"slope_before":-0.161,"slope_after":-0.00785}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 140k in 1950 → 497k in 2023 (×3.5). The trend broke around 2012: direction reversed (+5.95k → −1.48k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":140.3,"last":496.9,"breaks":[{"year":2012,"slope_before":5.95,"slope_after":-1.48}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 41.6% in 2024 (+42 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2012. Fastest growth in 2010–2015: 6.4% → 22.7%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":41.6428,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2012,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2010,"to":2015,"start":6.4,"end":22.7428}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 12.5% in 1960 → 40.5% in 2025 (+28 pp). The trend broke around 1996 and 2015: +0.57 → +0.06 → +0.76 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":12.467,"last":40.4951,"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":0.568,"slope_after":0.0565},{"year":2015,"slope_before":0.0565,"slope_after":0.756}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 6,083 PPP dollars in 1990 → 5,529 PPP dollars in 2025 (−9%). Peak: 6,582 PPP dollars in 1998; the latest value is 16% lower. The trend broke around 1999 and 2006: +94 → −413 → +101 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":6082.8688,"last":5529.2331,"peak":{"year":1998,"value":6582.3769},"breaks":[{"year":1999,"slope_before":93.8,"slope_after":-413},{"year":2006,"slope_before":-413,"slope_after":101}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1983–1993: 6.20 → 4.39. Over the same years: births 364k → 352k; internet 0% (1994); urban share 24.1% → 30.9%; GDP per person (PPP) 5,509 PPP dollars (1993).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1983,"to":1993,"start":6.197,"end":4.391,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1983,"to":1993,"start":364.3,"end":351.6},{"id":"internet_users","year":1994,"value":0.0017},{"id":"urban_population","from":1983,"to":1993,"start":24.0973,"end":30.8753},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1993,"value":5509.107}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 4.11 → 3.72; births 518k → 497k; internet 15.5% → 38.7%; urban share 32.9% → 39.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 5,032 PPP dollars → 5,218 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.111,"end":3.724,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":518.2,"end":496.9},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":15.5,"end":38.6748},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":32.9019,"end":39.2919},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":5031.7092,"end":5218.0453}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.48).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.92,"r_changes":0.484,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 31 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.43); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.04).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":31,"r_levels":-0.433,"r_changes":-0.04,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.97); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.44). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.971,"r_changes":-0.444,"effective_pairs_changes":6,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.52); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.17).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":0.52,"r_changes":0.166,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +33%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":3.7841,"gap_pct":80.2},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.9,"actual":3.7841,"gap_pct":30.49},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.756,"actual":3.7841,"gap_pct":37.3},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.69,"actual":3.7841,"gap_pct":40.67},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.69,"actual":3.7841,"gap_pct":40.67},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.854,"actual":3.7841,"gap_pct":32.59},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.827,"actual":3.7841,"gap_pct":33.86},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.202,"actual":3.7841,"gap_pct":18.18},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.646,"actual":3.7841,"gap_pct":3.79},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.626,"actual":3.7841,"gap_pct":4.36},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.385,"actual":3.724,"gap_pct":10.01}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":32.59,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected this level (3.72) already around 2009: reality is 14 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.724,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2009,"years":14,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected this level (3.72) already around 2004: reality is 19 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.724,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2004,"years":19,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.70 (−28% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.98 (−47% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.48.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.724},"values":{"2050":2.695,"2100":1.975},"low_2100":1.475}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 2 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 9; median gap +16%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":296.398,"actual":475.96,"gap_pct":60.58},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":459.237,"actual":475.96,"gap_pct":3.64},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":365.786,"actual":475.96,"gap_pct":30.12},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":366.97,"actual":475.96,"gap_pct":29.7},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":377.826,"actual":475.96,"gap_pct":25.97},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":410.294,"actual":475.96,"gap_pct":16},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":401.66,"actual":475.96,"gap_pct":18.5},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":474.149,"actual":475.96,"gap_pct":0.38},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":535.147,"actual":475.96,"gap_pct":-11.06},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":531.101,"actual":475.96,"gap_pct":-10.38},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":493.84,"actual":496.9,"gap_pct":0.62}],"actual_lower":2,"actual_higher":9,"median_gap_pct":16,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection did not expect today's level (497k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":496.9,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (497k, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":496.9,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 577k (+16% vs 2023), 2100 — 500k (+1% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 226k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":496.9},"values":{"2050":576.7,"2100":500.3},"low_2100":226.2}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=ZWE&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}