{"locations":[{"code":"ZMB","name":"Zambia","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/ZMB/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.78 in 1950 → 4.10 in 2023 (−40%). Peak: 7.42 in 1975; the latest value is 45% lower. The trend broke around 1976: direction reversed (+0.03 → −0.06 a year).","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.779,"last":4.101,"peak":{"year":1975,"value":7.421},"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":0.0273,"slope_after":-0.0603}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 116k in 1950 → 686k in 2023 (×5.9).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":116.3,"last":685.6}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 17.1% in 2024 (+17 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2016. Fastest growth in 2013–2018: 4.8% → 14.3%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":17.101,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2016,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2013,"to":2018,"start":4.8,"end":14.3}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 17.2% in 1960 → 45.9% in 2025 (+29 pp). The trend broke around 1978 and 2002: +1.3 → −0.18 → +0.41 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":17.2236,"last":45.9172,"breaks":[{"year":1978,"slope_before":1.34,"slope_after":-0.181},{"year":2002,"slope_before":-0.181,"slope_after":0.414}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 2,425 PPP dollars in 1990 → 3,742 PPP dollars in 2025 (+54%). Low: 2,111 PPP dollars in 1994; +77% since then. The trend broke around 2001 and 2013: −17 → +117 → +9 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":2425.1113,"last":3742.2565,"trough":{"year":1994,"value":2110.5833},"breaks":[{"year":2001,"slope_before":-16.9,"slope_after":117},{"year":2013,"slope_before":117,"slope_after":8.95}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2007–2017: 5.61 → 4.57. Over the same years: births 543k → 627k; internet 1.9% → 12.2%; urban share 38.4% → 42.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 2,796 PPP dollars → 3,613 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2007,"to":2017,"start":5.612,"end":4.567,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2007,"to":2017,"start":542.5,"end":626.8},{"id":"internet_users","from":2007,"to":2017,"start":1.9,"end":12.2},{"id":"urban_population","from":2007,"to":2017,"start":38.4035,"end":42.7296},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2007,"to":2017,"start":2796.3529,"end":3612.506}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 5.01 → 4.10; births 600k → 686k; internet 4.8% → 16.5%; urban share 41.2% → 45%; GDP per person (PPP) 3,535 PPP dollars → 3,673 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":5.014,"end":4.101,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":600.3,"end":685.6},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.8,"end":16.4507},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":41.1682,"end":45.0286},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3535.2245,"end":3673.4842}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.50).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.917,"r_changes":0.498,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 31 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.33). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":31,"r_levels":-0.953,"r_changes":-0.334,"effective_pairs_changes":11,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.57); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.48).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.569,"r_changes":0.485,"effective_pairs_changes":10,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.14). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.92,"r_changes":0.145,"effective_pairs_changes":24,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −1.9%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.428,"actual":4.539,"gap_pct":32.41},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.47,"actual":4.539,"gap_pct":1.54},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.169,"actual":4.539,"gap_pct":8.88},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.164,"actual":4.539,"gap_pct":9.01},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.161,"actual":4.539,"gap_pct":9.08},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.758,"actual":4.539,"gap_pct":-4.6},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.304,"actual":4.539,"gap_pct":-28},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.468,"actual":4.539,"gap_pct":-16.99},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.142,"actual":4.539,"gap_pct":-11.73},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.901,"actual":4.539,"gap_pct":-7.39},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4.179,"actual":4.101,"gap_pct":-1.87}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-1.87,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (4.10) already around 2011: reality is 12 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.101,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2011,"years":12,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (4.10, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.101,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.81 (−31% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.08 (−49% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.58.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4.101},"values":{"2050":2.811,"2100":2.079},"low_2100":1.579}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 6; median gap +7.3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":413.564,"actual":633.16,"gap_pct":53.1},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":576.303,"actual":633.16,"gap_pct":9.87},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":481.439,"actual":633.16,"gap_pct":31.51},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":510.983,"actual":633.16,"gap_pct":23.91},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":497.794,"actual":633.16,"gap_pct":27.19},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":590.292,"actual":633.16,"gap_pct":7.26},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":764.911,"actual":633.16,"gap_pct":-17.22},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":698.45,"actual":633.16,"gap_pct":-9.35},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":681.979,"actual":633.16,"gap_pct":-7.16},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":655.725,"actual":633.16,"gap_pct":-3.44},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":694.807,"actual":685.6,"gap_pct":-1.33}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":7.26,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection expected this level (686k) already around 2013: reality is 10 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":685.6,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2013,"years":10,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected this level (686k) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":685.6,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 881k (+28% vs 2023), 2100 — 926k (+35% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 448k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":685.6},"values":{"2050":880.9,"2100":925.6},"low_2100":447.5}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=ZMB&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}