{"locations":[{"code":"YEM","name":"Yemen","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/YEM/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.97 in 1950 → 4.59 in 2023 (−42%). Peak: 8.86 in 1985; the latest value is 48% lower. The trend broke around 1988 and 2009: +0.03 → −0.2 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.971,"last":4.59,"peak":{"year":1985,"value":8.864},"breaks":[{"year":1988,"slope_before":0.0283,"slope_after":-0.196},{"year":2009,"slope_before":-0.196,"slope_after":-0.0128}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 244k in 1950 → 1.39M in 2023 (×5.7). The trend broke around 2011: change sped up (+14.2k → +35.4k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":243.6,"last":1387,"breaks":[{"year":2011,"slope_before":14.2,"slope_after":35.4}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 17.5% in 2019 (+17 pp). Peak: 24.6% in 2016; the latest value is 29% lower. Threshold: above 10% since 2010. Fastest growth in 2006–2011: 1.2% → 14.9%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2019,"first":0,"last":17.491,"peak":{"year":2016,"value":24.5792},"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2010,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2006,"to":2011,"start":1.2478,"end":14.905}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 3.4% in 1960 → 37% in 2025 (+34 pp). The trend broke around 1973 and 1996: +0.3 → +0.77 → +0.43 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":3.4,"last":37.0337,"breaks":[{"year":1973,"slope_before":0.302,"slope_after":0.768},{"year":1996,"slope_before":0.768,"slope_after":0.432}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1991–2001: 8.46 → 6.14. Over the same years: births 725k → 812k; internet 0% → 0.1%; urban share 21% → 27.1%.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1991,"to":2001,"start":8.459,"end":6.143,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1991,"to":2001,"start":724.7,"end":812.4},{"id":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2001,"start":0,"end":0.0908},{"id":"urban_population","from":1991,"to":2001,"start":20.9822,"end":27.1034}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 4.62 → 4.59; births 1.04M → 1.39M; internet 20% (2013); urban share 31.4% → 36.6%.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.623,"end":4.59,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1040,"end":1387},{"id":"internet_users","year":2013,"value":20},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":31.4427,"end":36.5708}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.84); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.82). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.84,"r_changes":0.824,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2019, 23 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.77); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.32). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2019,"years":23,"r_levels":-0.771,"r_changes":-0.318,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.85); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.03). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.851,"r_changes":-0.027,"effective_pairs_changes":10,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +6.4%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.01,"actual":4.6083,"gap_pct":-8.02},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.35,"actual":4.6083,"gap_pct":-27.43},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.974,"actual":4.6083,"gap_pct":-22.86},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.501,"actual":4.6083,"gap_pct":2.38},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.333,"actual":4.6083,"gap_pct":6.35},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.077,"actual":4.6083,"gap_pct":13.03},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.387,"actual":4.6083,"gap_pct":5.04},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.572,"actual":4.6083,"gap_pct":29.01},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.786,"actual":4.6083,"gap_pct":21.72},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.837,"actual":4.6083,"gap_pct":20.1},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.64,"actual":4.59,"gap_pct":26.1}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":8,"median_gap_pct":6.35,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (4.59) already around 2020: reality is 3 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.59,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2020,"years":3,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection expected this level (4.59) already around 2015: reality is 8 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.59,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2015,"years":8,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.81 (−39% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.91 (−58% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.41.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4.59},"values":{"2050":2.81,"2100":1.913},"low_2100":1.413}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 2 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 9; median gap +20%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1084.603,"actual":1209.9,"gap_pct":11.55},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1562.282,"actual":1209.9,"gap_pct":-22.56},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1392.704,"actual":1209.9,"gap_pct":-13.13},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1039.869,"actual":1209.9,"gap_pct":16.35},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1007.949,"actual":1209.9,"gap_pct":20.04},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":947.564,"actual":1209.9,"gap_pct":27.69},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1026.464,"actual":1209.9,"gap_pct":17.87},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":784.715,"actual":1209.9,"gap_pct":54.18},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":869.032,"actual":1209.9,"gap_pct":39.22},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":877.135,"actual":1209.9,"gap_pct":37.94},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1011.668,"actual":1387,"gap_pct":37.1}],"actual_lower":2,"actual_higher":9,"median_gap_pct":20.04,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected this level (1.39M) already around 2013: reality is 10 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1387,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2013,"years":10,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection did not expect today's level (1.39M, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1387,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.59M (+15% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.37M (−1% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 653k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1387},"values":{"2050":1593,"2100":1370},"low_2100":653}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=YEM&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}