{"locations":[{"code":"WSM","name":"Samoa","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/WSM/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.55 in 1950 → 3.83 in 2023 (−49%). Peak: 7.79 in 1959; the latest value is 51% lower. The trend broke around 1965 and 1990: +0.01 → −0.12 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.553,"last":3.829,"peak":{"year":1959,"value":7.787},"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.00992,"slope_after":-0.116},{"year":1990,"slope_before":-0.116,"slope_after":-0.0265}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 4.72k in 1950 → 5.5k in 2023 (+17%). The trend broke around 1961: direction reversed (+0.1k → 0k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":4.718,"last":5.503,"breaks":[{"year":1961,"slope_before":0.0999,"slope_after":-0.00044}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 21.2% in 2014 (+21 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2011. Fastest growth in 2009–2014: 6% → 21.2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2014,"first":0,"last":21.2,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2011,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2009,"to":2014,"start":6,"end":21.2}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 18.9% in 1960 → 17.5% in 2025 (−1.4 pp). Peak: 22% in 2001; the latest value is 20% lower. The trend broke around 1973 and 2002: +0.16 → +0.03 → −0.2 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":18.8923,"last":17.5064,"peak":{"year":2001,"value":21.975},"breaks":[{"year":1973,"slope_before":0.162,"slope_after":0.0338},{"year":2002,"slope_before":0.0338,"slope_after":-0.198}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 3,991 PPP dollars in 1990 → 7,963 PPP dollars in 2025 (+100%). Low: 3,855 PPP dollars in 1994; +107% since then. The trend broke around 1999 and 2005: +69 → +241 → +73 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":3991.4381,"last":7963.4275,"trough":{"year":1994,"value":3854.5332},"breaks":[{"year":1999,"slope_before":68.6,"slope_after":241},{"year":2005,"slope_before":241,"slope_after":73.4}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1970–1980: 7.34 → 5.86. Over the same years: births 5.8k → 5.76k; urban share 20.3% → 21.2%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1970,"to":1980,"start":7.338,"end":5.861,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1970,"to":1980,"start":5.797,"end":5.763},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1970,"to":1980,"start":20.3471,"end":21.2068},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 4.49 → 3.83; births 6.05k → 5.5k; internet 15.3% (2013); urban share 19.4% → 17.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 6,263 PPP dollars → 7,385 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.491,"end":3.829,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":6.054,"end":5.503},{"id":"internet_users","year":2013,"value":15.3},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":19.3866,"end":17.5013},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":6263.1261,"end":7384.6916}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.38); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.59). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.379,"r_changes":0.589,"effective_pairs_changes":10,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2014, 19 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.24); year-to-year changes are related too (r = −0.55). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2014,"years":19,"r_levels":-0.239,"r_changes":-0.551,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.05); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.28).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.046,"r_changes":-0.276,"effective_pairs_changes":11,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.84); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.05). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.843,"r_changes":0.047,"effective_pairs_changes":27,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +23%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.25,"actual":4.1656,"gap_pct":85.14},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.4,"actual":4.1656,"gap_pct":22.52},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.95,"actual":4.1656,"gap_pct":41.21},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.149,"actual":4.1656,"gap_pct":32.28},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.149,"actual":4.1656,"gap_pct":32.28},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.186,"actual":4.1656,"gap_pct":30.75},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.556,"actual":4.1656,"gap_pct":17.14},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.897,"actual":4.1656,"gap_pct":6.89},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.901,"actual":4.1656,"gap_pct":6.78},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.903,"actual":4.1656,"gap_pct":6.73},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.827,"actual":3.829,"gap_pct":0.05}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":22.52,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected this level (3.83) already around 2010: reality is 13 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.829,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2010,"years":13,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected this level (3.83) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.829,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.86 (−25% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.06 (−46% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.56.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.829},"values":{"2050":2.864,"2100":2.057},"low_2100":1.557}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +25%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.673,"actual":5.9139,"gap_pct":26.55},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.911,"actual":5.9139,"gap_pct":20.42},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.949,"actual":5.9139,"gap_pct":19.5},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.809,"actual":5.9139,"gap_pct":55.26},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.242,"actual":5.9139,"gap_pct":39.41},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.994,"actual":5.9139,"gap_pct":48.07},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.291,"actual":5.9139,"gap_pct":37.82},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.759,"actual":5.9139,"gap_pct":24.27},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.722,"actual":5.9139,"gap_pct":25.24},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.755,"actual":5.9139,"gap_pct":24.37},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":6.023,"actual":5.503,"gap_pct":-8.63}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":25.24,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 6.02k (+9% vs 2023), 2100 — 5.13k (−7% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 2.29k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":5.503},"values":{"2050":6.016,"2100":5.132},"low_2100":2.29}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=WSM&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}