{"locations":[{"code":"WLF","name":"Wallis and Futuna Islands","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/WLF/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.95 in 1950 → 1.41 in 2023 (−80%). Peak: 7.35 in 1969; the latest value is 81% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 2012, below 1.5 since 2021. The trend broke around 1973 and 2001: +0.02 → −0.17 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.947,"last":1.41,"peak":{"year":1969,"value":7.347},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2012,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2021,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1973,"slope_before":0.0193,"slope_after":-0.173},{"year":2001,"slope_before":-0.173,"slope_after":-0.0423}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.38k in 1950 → 0.1k in 2023 (−74%). Peak: 0.48k in 1987; the latest value is 79% lower. The trend broke around 1962 and 1983: −0.02k → +0.01k → −0.01k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.38,"last":0.098,"peak":{"year":1987,"value":0.475},"breaks":[{"year":1962,"slope_before":-0.0169,"slope_after":0.00957},{"year":1983,"slope_before":0.00957,"slope_after":-0.00954}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1987–1997: 5.63 → 2.63. Over the same years: births 0.48k → 0.27k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":5.633,"end":2.628,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":0.475,"end":0.266}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.83 → 1.41; births 0.15k → 0.1k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.829,"end":1.41,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.151,"end":0.098}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.68); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.75). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.684,"r_changes":0.745,"effective_pairs_changes":63,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −26%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.916,"actual":1.41,"gap_pct":-26.41}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-26.41,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.45 (+3% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.53 (+8% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.03.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.41},"values":{"2050":1.45,"2100":1.527},"low_2100":1.027}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −26%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.132,"actual":0.098,"gap_pct":-25.76}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-25.76,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.09k (−9% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.05k (−52% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.01k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.098},"values":{"2050":0.089,"2100":0.047},"low_2100":0.013}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=WLF&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}