{"locations":[{"code":"VUT","name":"Vanuatu","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/VUT/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.04 in 1950 → 3.60 in 2023 (−49%). The trend broke around 2005: change slowed down (−0.06 → −0.03 a year).","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.039,"last":3.596,"breaks":[{"year":2005,"slope_before":-0.0598,"slope_after":-0.0311}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 2.15k in 1950 → 8.99k in 2023 (×4.2). The trend broke around 2006 and 2014: +0.08k → +0.24k → +0.03k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.145,"last":8.988,"breaks":[{"year":2006,"slope_before":0.0848,"slope_after":0.242},{"year":2014,"slope_before":0.242,"slope_after":0.0328}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 22.4% in 2015 (+22 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2012. Fastest growth in 2010–2015: 8% → 22.4%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2015,"first":0,"last":22.3514,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2012,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2010,"to":2015,"start":8,"end":22.3514}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 8% in 1960 → 22.3% in 2025 (+14 pp). Peak: 24.9% in 2016; the latest value is 10% lower. The trend broke around 2013: direction reversed (+0.28 → −0.29 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":7.9758,"last":22.322,"peak":{"year":2016,"value":24.8655},"breaks":[{"year":2013,"slope_before":0.279,"slope_after":-0.294}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 3,532 PPP dollars in 1990 → 3,867 PPP dollars in 2025 (+9%). Low: 3,315 PPP dollars in 2002; +17% since then.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":3531.7875,"last":3866.9981,"trough":{"year":2002,"value":3314.7126}}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1993–2003: 5.02 → 4.29. Over the same years: births 5.94k → 6.33k; internet 3.9% (2003); urban share 19.7% → 22.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 3,495 PPP dollars → 3,373 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1993,"to":2003,"start":5.023,"end":4.293,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1993,"to":2003,"start":5.944,"end":6.334},{"id":"internet_users","year":2003,"value":3.9033},{"id":"urban_population","from":1993,"to":2003,"start":19.676,"end":22.4641},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1993,"to":2003,"start":3495.4928,"end":3372.773}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 4.04 → 3.60; births 8.46k → 8.99k; internet 11.3% (2013); urban share 24.8% → 22.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 3,749 PPP dollars → 3,783 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.038,"end":3.596,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":8.458,"end":8.988},{"id":"internet_users","year":2013,"value":11.3},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":24.8407,"end":22.2652},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3748.7651,"end":3782.8265}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.98); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.54). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.976,"r_changes":0.545,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2015, 21 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.77); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.20). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2015,"years":21,"r_levels":-0.772,"r_changes":-0.203,"effective_pairs_changes":17,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.98); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.03). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.978,"r_changes":0.028,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.42); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.16).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.422,"r_changes":0.163,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +20%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.85,"actual":3.8518,"gap_pct":35.15},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.26,"actual":3.8518,"gap_pct":18.15},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.887,"actual":3.8518,"gap_pct":33.42},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.995,"actual":3.8518,"gap_pct":28.61},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.009,"actual":3.8518,"gap_pct":28.01},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.229,"actual":3.8518,"gap_pct":19.29},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.523,"actual":3.8518,"gap_pct":9.33},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.215,"actual":3.8518,"gap_pct":19.81},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.218,"actual":3.8518,"gap_pct":19.7},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.222,"actual":3.8518,"gap_pct":19.55},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.656,"actual":3.596,"gap_pct":-1.64}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":19.7,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (3.60) already around 2006: reality is 17 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.596,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2006,"years":17,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (3.60, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.596,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.80 (−22% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.12 (−41% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.62.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.596},"values":{"2050":2.804,"2100":2.12},"low_2100":1.62}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +26%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.706,"actual":8.9099,"gap_pct":32.86},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.66,"actual":8.9099,"gap_pct":16.32},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.777,"actual":8.9099,"gap_pct":31.47},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.544,"actual":8.9099,"gap_pct":36.15},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.962,"actual":8.9099,"gap_pct":27.98},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.479,"actual":8.9099,"gap_pct":19.13},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.76,"actual":8.9099,"gap_pct":14.82},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.997,"actual":8.9099,"gap_pct":27.34},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.078,"actual":8.9099,"gap_pct":25.88},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.081,"actual":8.9099,"gap_pct":25.83},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":9.531,"actual":8.988,"gap_pct":-5.7}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":25.88,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection expected today's level (8.99k, 2023) only around 2036: reality is 13 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":8.988,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2036,"years":13,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection did not expect today's level (8.99k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":8.988,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 11.6k (+29% vs 2023), 2100 — 12k (+33% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 5.75k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":8.988},"values":{"2050":11.55,"2100":11.97},"low_2100":5.746}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=VUT&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}