{"locations":[{"code":"VNM","name":"Vietnam","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/VNM/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.15 in 1950 → 1.93 in 2025 (−63%). Peak: 6.39 in 1963; the latest value is 70% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2016. The trend broke around 1970 and 2000: +0.05 → −0.15 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":5.147,"last":1.93,"peak":{"year":1963,"value":6.385},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2016,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1970,"slope_before":0.0486,"slope_after":-0.145},{"year":2000,"slope_before":-0.145,"slope_after":-0.00172}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 973k in 1950 → 1.39M in 2023 (+43%). Peak: 1.92M in 1984; the latest value is 28% lower. The trend broke around 1990 and 1998: +23.7k → −69.4k → +5.8k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":973.3,"last":1388,"peak":{"year":1984,"value":1923},"breaks":[{"year":1990,"slope_before":23.7,"slope_after":-69.4},{"year":1998,"slope_before":-69.4,"slope_after":5.8}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 84.2% in 2024 (+84 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2005, above 50% since 2016. Fastest growth in 2013–2018: 38.5% → 69.8%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":84.15,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2005,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2016,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2013,"to":2018,"start":38.5,"end":69.8479}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 15.3% in 1960 → 38.8% in 2025 (+24 pp). The trend broke around 1969 and 1990: +0.64 → −0.09 → +0.57 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":15.2655,"last":38.8299,"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":0.642,"slope_after":-0.0905},{"year":1990,"slope_before":-0.0905,"slope_after":0.569}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 2,468 PPP dollars in 1990 → 15,457 PPP dollars in 2025 (×6.3). The trend broke around 2014: change sped up (+318 → +572 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":2467.9646,"last":15457.3499,"breaks":[{"year":2014,"slope_before":318,"slope_after":572}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1989–1999: 3.64 → 2.00. Over the same years: births 1.86M → 1.34M; internet 0% → 0.1%; urban share 19.1% → 23.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 2,468 PPP dollars → 4,119 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1989,"to":1999,"start":3.641,"end":1.999,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1989,"to":1999,"start":1863,"end":1342},{"id":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":1999,"start":0,"end":0.129},{"id":"urban_population","from":1989,"to":1999,"start":19.0531,"end":23.8212},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":1999,"start":2467.9646,"end":4119.0537}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 2.10 → 1.93; births 1.72M (2015); internet 45% → 84.2%; urban share 32.4% → 38.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 9,248 PPP dollars → 15,457 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":2.1,"end":1.93,"others":[{"id":"births","year":2015,"value":1717},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":45,"end":84.15},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":32.3811,"end":38.8299},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":9248.024,"end":15457.3499}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.21); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.83). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.209,"r_changes":0.835,"effective_pairs_changes":54,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 30 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.35); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.31).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.355,"r_changes":-0.307,"effective_pairs_changes":27,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.78); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.11). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.777,"r_changes":0.113,"effective_pairs_changes":62,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.60); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.27).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.595,"r_changes":-0.269,"effective_pairs_changes":29,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +0.7%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.9271,"gap_pct":-8.23},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.9271,"gap_pct":-8.23},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.913,"actual":1.9271,"gap_pct":0.74},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.9271,"gap_pct":4.17},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.9271,"gap_pct":4.17},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.9271,"gap_pct":4.17},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.583,"actual":1.9271,"gap_pct":21.74},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.619,"actual":1.9271,"gap_pct":19.03},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.942,"actual":1.9271,"gap_pct":-0.77},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.934,"actual":1.9271,"gap_pct":-0.36},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.019,"actual":1.9271,"gap_pct":-4.55},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.919,"actual":1.93,"gap_pct":0.57}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":0.66,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.75 (−10% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.70 (−12% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.20.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.93},"values":{"2050":1.745,"2100":1.704},"low_2100":1.204}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −0.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1770.427,"actual":1564.3,"gap_pct":-11.64},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1761.776,"actual":1564.3,"gap_pct":-11.21},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1668.538,"actual":1564.3,"gap_pct":-6.25},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1567.334,"actual":1564.3,"gap_pct":-0.19},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1582.926,"actual":1564.3,"gap_pct":-1.18},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1447.326,"actual":1564.3,"gap_pct":8.08},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1330.33,"actual":1564.3,"gap_pct":17.59},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1336.043,"actual":1564.3,"gap_pct":17.08},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1550.815,"actual":1564.3,"gap_pct":0.87},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1558.577,"actual":1564.3,"gap_pct":0.37},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1418.89,"actual":1388,"gap_pct":-2.18}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-0.19,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection did not expect today's level (1.39M, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1388,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (1.39M, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1388,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.15M (−17% vs 2023), 2100 — 783k (−44% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 268k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1388},"values":{"2050":1147,"2100":783},"low_2100":268.3}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=VNM&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}