{"locations":[{"code":"VIR","name":"US Virgin Islands","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/VIR/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 4.97 in 1950 → 2.09 in 2023 (−58%). Peak: 5.64 in 1965; the latest value is 63% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2023. The trend broke around 1970 and 1976: +0.01 → −0.31 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":4.965,"last":2.09,"peak":{"year":1965,"value":5.64},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2023,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1970,"slope_before":0.0138,"slope_after":-0.313},{"year":1976,"slope_before":-0.313,"slope_after":-0.0269}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.87k in 1950 → 0.96k in 2023 (+10%). Peak: 3.01k in 1994; the latest value is 68% lower. The trend broke around 1970 and 1993: +0.1k → 0k → −0.05k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.868,"last":0.959,"peak":{"year":1994,"value":3.011},"breaks":[{"year":1970,"slope_before":0.103,"slope_after":-0.00323},{"year":1993,"slope_before":-0.00323,"slope_after":-0.0543}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 64.4% in 2017 (+64 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1999, above 50% since 2014. Fastest growth in 2011–2016: 35.6% → 59.6%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2017,"first":0,"last":64.3775,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1999,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2014,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2011,"to":2016,"start":35.6,"end":59.6083}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 55.9% in 1960 → 95.4% in 2025 (+39 pp). Low: 24.4% in 1970; +71 pp since then. Threshold: above 75% since 1992. The trend broke around 1971 and 1999: −3.5 → +2.7 → +0.08 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":55.9288,"last":95.3886,"trough":{"year":1970,"value":24.4176},"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1992,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1971,"slope_before":-3.49,"slope_after":2.68},{"year":1999,"slope_before":2.68,"slope_after":0.0791}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 54,299 PPP dollars in 2002 → 46,479 PPP dollars in 2022 (−14%). Peak: 63,058 PPP dollars in 2008; the latest value is 26% lower. The trend broke around 2008 and 2014: +1,757 → −3,638 → +645 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2002,"to":2022,"first":54299.2299,"last":46479.2997,"peak":{"year":2008,"value":63057.6263},"breaks":[{"year":2008,"slope_before":1760,"slope_after":-3640},{"year":2014,"slope_before":-3640,"slope_after":645}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1970–1980: 5.25 → 3.11. Over the same years: births 2.9k → 2.46k; urban share 24.4% → 39.6%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1970,"to":1980,"start":5.254,"end":3.105,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1970,"to":1980,"start":2.895,"end":2.457},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1970,"to":1980,"start":24.4176,"end":39.5577},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.23 → 2.09; births 1.41k → 0.96k; internet 45.3% (2013); urban share 94.8% → 95.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 43,564 PPP dollars → 46,479 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.229,"end":2.09,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.414,"end":0.959},{"id":"internet_users","year":2013,"value":45.3},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":94.8106,"end":95.2741},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2022,"start":43563.8865,"end":46479.2997}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.05); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.84). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.047,"r_changes":0.842,"effective_pairs_changes":57,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2017, 25 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.79); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.17). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2017,"years":25,"r_levels":-0.791,"r_changes":-0.169,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.77); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.07). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.772,"r_changes":-0.068,"effective_pairs_changes":55,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (2002–2022, 21 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.93); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.65). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2002,"to":2022,"years":21,"r_levels":0.931,"r_changes":0.649,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 9 revisions (2002–2022) and above in 5; median gap +10%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.897,"actual":2.1841,"gap_pct":15.13},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.967,"actual":2.1841,"gap_pct":11.04},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.983,"actual":2.1841,"gap_pct":10.14},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.983,"actual":2.1841,"gap_pct":10.14},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.847,"actual":2.1841,"gap_pct":18.25},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.384,"actual":2.1841,"gap_pct":-8.39},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.184,"actual":2.1841,"gap_pct":0},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.187,"actual":2.1841,"gap_pct":-0.13},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.09,"gap_pct":-0.48}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":10.14,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected today's level (2.09, 2023) only around 2039: reality is 16 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.09,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2039,"years":16,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.09, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.09,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.84 (−12% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.74 (−17% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.24.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.09},"values":{"2050":1.844,"2100":1.737},"low_2100":1.237}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 9 revisions (2002–2022) and above in none; median gap −13%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.767,"actual":1.1866,"gap_pct":-32.85},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.467,"actual":1.1866,"gap_pct":-19.11},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.472,"actual":1.1866,"gap_pct":-19.39},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.327,"actual":1.1866,"gap_pct":-10.58},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.263,"actual":1.1866,"gap_pct":-6.05},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.454,"actual":1.1866,"gap_pct":-18.39},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.369,"actual":1.1866,"gap_pct":-13.32},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.332,"actual":1.1866,"gap_pct":-10.92},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.085,"actual":0.959,"gap_pct":-11.61}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-13.32,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (0.96k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":0.959,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (0.96k, 2023) only around 2033: reality is 10 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":0.959,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2033,"years":10,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.76k (−21% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.56k (−41% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.21k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.959},"values":{"2050":0.759,"2100":0.562},"low_2100":0.208}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=VIR&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}