{"locations":[{"code":"VGB","name":"British Virgin Islands","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/VGB/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.05 in 1950 → 1.05 in 2023 (−79%). Peak: 5.30 in 1955; the latest value is 80% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1984, below 1.5 since 2005. The trend broke around 1956 and 1986: +0.02 → −0.11 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.049,"last":1.045,"peak":{"year":1955,"value":5.303},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1984,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2005,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1956,"slope_before":0.0185,"slope_after":-0.11},{"year":1986,"slope_before":-0.11,"slope_after":-0.0291}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.25k in 1950 → 0.33k in 2023 (+28%). Low: 0.21k in 2002; +56% since then. The trend broke around 1976 and 1982: 0k → −0.01k → 0k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.253,"last":0.325,"trough":{"year":2002,"value":0.209},"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":0.00312,"slope_after":-0.0126},{"year":1982,"slope_before":-0.0126,"slope_after":0.00155}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 77.7% in 2017 (+78 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2002, above 50% since 2016. Fastest growth in 2011–2016: 37.4% → 77.7%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2017,"first":0,"last":77.7043,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2016,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2011,"to":2016,"start":37.4,"end":77.7014}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 12.1% in 1960 → 57.4% in 2025 (+45 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2016. The trend broke around 1980 and 1988: +0.51 → +1.8 → +0.51 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":12.139,"last":57.3952,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2016,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1980,"slope_before":0.51,"slope_after":1.82},{"year":1988,"slope_before":1.82,"slope_after":0.511}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1977–1987: 3.15 → 1.72. Over the same years: births 0.3k → 0.23k; urban share 20.3% → 34.3%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1977,"to":1987,"start":3.148,"end":1.717,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1977,"to":1987,"start":0.301,"end":0.234},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1977,"to":1987,"start":20.3143,"end":34.3222}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.09 → 1.05; births 0.3k → 0.33k; internet 37.6% (2012); urban share 48.2% → 55.6%.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.086,"end":1.045,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.295,"end":0.325},{"id":"internet_users","year":2012,"value":37.6},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":48.164,"end":55.6408}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.12); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.76). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.125,"r_changes":0.764,"effective_pairs_changes":52,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet: too few common years with data (8) to speak of a relationship.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","years":8}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.96); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.05). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.96,"r_changes":-0.049,"effective_pairs_changes":63,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +1.7%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.028,"actual":1.045,"gap_pct":1.65}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":1.65,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (1.05, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.045,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.22 (+17% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.40 (+34% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.90.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.045},"values":{"2050":1.218,"2100":1.397},"low_2100":0.897}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +35%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.24,"actual":0.325,"gap_pct":35.42}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":35.42,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.26k (−19% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.2k (−38% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.07k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.325},"values":{"2050":0.264,"2100":0.202},"low_2100":0.07}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=VGB&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}