{"locations":[{"code":"VEN","name":"Venezuela","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/VEN/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.64 in 1950 → 2.08 in 2023 (−69%). Threshold: below 2.1 since 2022. The trend broke around 1958 and 1989: 0 → −0.11 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.635,"last":2.079,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2022,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1958,"slope_before":-0.00284,"slope_after":-0.105},{"year":1989,"slope_before":-0.105,"slope_after":-0.0409}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 257k in 1950 → 427k in 2023 (+66%). Peak: 602k in 2006; the latest value is 29% lower. The trend broke around 1989 and 2014: +7.56k → +0.73k → −21.2k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":256.9,"last":427,"peak":{"year":2006,"value":601.8},"breaks":[{"year":1989,"slope_before":7.56,"slope_after":0.728},{"year":2014,"slope_before":0.728,"slope_after":-21.2}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 76.7% in 2024 (+77 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2005, above 50% since 2020. Fastest growth in 2008–2013: 25.9% → 54.9%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":76.6789,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2005,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2008,"to":2013,"start":25.88,"end":54.9}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 61.9% in 1960 → 89.3% in 2025 (+27 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 1974. The trend broke around 1976 and 1999: +0.95 → +0.48 → +0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":61.92,"last":89.3219,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1974,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":0.946,"slope_after":0.481},{"year":1999,"slope_before":0.481,"slope_after":0.0403}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1965–1975: 5.98 → 4.69. Over the same years: births 400k → 463k; urban share 66.9% → 75.9%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":5.977,"end":4.686,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":400.1,"end":462.6},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":66.8763,"end":75.8929}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.33 → 2.08; births 583k → 427k; internet 54.9% → 76.3%; urban share 88.9% → 89.2%.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.334,"end":2.079,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":582.5,"end":427},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":54.9,"end":76.3319},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":88.8787,"end":89.2496}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.85); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.04). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.85,"r_changes":0.039,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 31 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.90); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.03). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":31,"r_levels":-0.904,"r_changes":0.031,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.99); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.25). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.989,"r_changes":-0.251,"effective_pairs_changes":16,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −3.9%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.203,"actual":2.1733,"gap_pct":-1.35},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.203,"actual":2.1733,"gap_pct":-1.35},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.203,"actual":2.1733,"gap_pct":-1.35},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.261,"actual":2.1733,"gap_pct":-3.88},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.261,"actual":2.1733,"gap_pct":-3.88},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.261,"actual":2.1733,"gap_pct":-3.88},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.257,"actual":2.1733,"gap_pct":-3.71},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.278,"actual":2.1733,"gap_pct":-4.6},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.282,"actual":2.1733,"gap_pct":-4.76},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.283,"actual":2.1733,"gap_pct":-4.81},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.171,"actual":2.079,"gap_pct":-4.24}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-3.88,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected today's level (2.08, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.079,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.08, 2023) only around 2029: reality is 6 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.079,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2029,"years":6,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.83 (−12% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.72 (−17% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.22.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.079},"values":{"2050":1.826,"2100":1.717},"low_2100":1.217}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −12%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":572.817,"actual":520.73,"gap_pct":-9.09},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":572.818,"actual":520.73,"gap_pct":-9.09},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":579.454,"actual":520.73,"gap_pct":-10.13},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":590.563,"actual":520.73,"gap_pct":-11.82},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":591.786,"actual":520.73,"gap_pct":-12.01},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":591.785,"actual":520.73,"gap_pct":-12.01},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":589.062,"actual":520.73,"gap_pct":-11.6},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":594.691,"actual":520.73,"gap_pct":-12.44},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":595.516,"actual":520.73,"gap_pct":-12.56},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":597.954,"actual":520.73,"gap_pct":-12.91},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":454.898,"actual":427,"gap_pct":-6.13}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-11.82,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (427k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":427,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 377k (−12% vs 2023), 2100 — 260k (−39% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 88.1k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":427},"values":{"2050":377.2,"2100":259.9},"low_2100":88.14}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=VEN&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}