{"locations":[{"code":"VCT","name":"Saint Vincent and the Grenadines","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/VCT/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.29 in 1950 → 1.78 in 2023 (−76%). Threshold: below 2.1 since 2016. The trend broke around 1966 and 1987: −0.04 → −0.2 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.285,"last":1.775,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2016,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":-0.0378,"slope_after":-0.196},{"year":1987,"slope_before":-0.196,"slope_after":-0.0278}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 3.22k in 1950 → 1.23k in 2023 (−62%). Peak: 4.17k in 1961; the latest value is 70% lower. The trend broke around 1964: direction reversed (+0.08k → −0.07k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":3.222,"last":1.232,"peak":{"year":1961,"value":4.166},"breaks":[{"year":1964,"slope_before":0.079,"slope_after":-0.0683}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 76.2% in 2024 (+76 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2006, above 50% since 2016. Fastest growth in 2006–2011: 12% → 36.7%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":76.1901,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2006,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2016,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2006,"to":2011,"start":12,"end":36.7}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 40.1% in 1960 → 48% in 2025 (+7.9 pp). The trend broke around 1969 and 1993: +0.32 → +0.04 → +0.12 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":40.1105,"last":47.981,"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":0.322,"slope_after":0.0397},{"year":1993,"slope_before":0.0397,"slope_after":0.123}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 7,467 PPP dollars in 1990 → 19,483 PPP dollars in 2025 (×2.6). The trend broke around 2008 and 2014: +355 → +88 → +447 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":7467.3787,"last":19483.0128,"breaks":[{"year":2008,"slope_before":355,"slope_after":88.3},{"year":2014,"slope_before":88.3,"slope_after":447}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1970–1980: 6.12 → 3.92. Over the same years: births 4.04k → 3.17k; urban share 43% → 43.5%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1970,"to":1980,"start":6.115,"end":3.923,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1970,"to":1980,"start":4.037,"end":3.172},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1970,"to":1980,"start":43.0118,"end":43.5254},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.11 → 1.78; births 1.73k → 1.23k; internet 43.5% → 75.5%; urban share 46.4% → 47.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 13,804 PPP dollars → 17,858 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.106,"end":1.775,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.732,"end":1.232},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":43.5,"end":75.5368},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":46.4319,"end":47.717},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":13804.1838,"end":17858.2446}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.91); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.90). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.909,"r_changes":0.9,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.82); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.53). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.819,"r_changes":0.527,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.88); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.46). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.876,"r_changes":0.46,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.17). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.946,"r_changes":-0.166,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 9 revisions (2002–2022) and above in 6; median gap +2.4%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.895,"actual":1.9479,"gap_pct":2.79},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.997,"actual":1.9479,"gap_pct":-2.46},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.02,"actual":1.9479,"gap_pct":-3.57},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.972,"actual":1.9479,"gap_pct":-1.22},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.876,"actual":1.9479,"gap_pct":3.83},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.901,"actual":1.9479,"gap_pct":2.47},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.902,"actual":1.9479,"gap_pct":2.41},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.902,"actual":1.9479,"gap_pct":2.41},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.763,"actual":1.775,"gap_pct":0.68}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":2.41,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection expected this level (1.78) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.775,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (1.78, 2023) only around 2026: reality is 3 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.775,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2026,"years":3,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.66 (−7% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.65 (−7% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.15.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.775},"values":{"2050":1.657,"2100":1.648},"low_2100":1.148}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 9 revisions (2002–2022) and above in none; median gap −11%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.976,"actual":1.4866,"gap_pct":-24.77},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.032,"actual":1.4866,"gap_pct":-26.84},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.054,"actual":1.4866,"gap_pct":-27.62},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.736,"actual":1.4866,"gap_pct":-14.37},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.646,"actual":1.4866,"gap_pct":-9.68},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.649,"actual":1.4866,"gap_pct":-9.85},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.666,"actual":1.4866,"gap_pct":-10.77},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.665,"actual":1.4866,"gap_pct":-10.71},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.307,"actual":1.232,"gap_pct":-5.74}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-10.77,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (1.23k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.232,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (1.23k, 2023) only around 2034: reality is 11 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.232,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2034,"years":11,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.94k (−24% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.57k (−54% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.18k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.232},"values":{"2050":0.941,"2100":0.567},"low_2100":0.177}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=VCT&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}