{"locations":[{"code":"VAT","name":"Holy See","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/VAT/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 1.00 in 1950 → 1.00 in 2023 (0%).","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":1,"last":1}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.01k in 1950 → 0k in 2023 (−71%). Peak: 0.01k in 1961; the latest value is 78% lower. The trend broke around 1962 and 1997: 0k → 0k → 0k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.007,"last":0.002,"peak":{"year":1961,"value":0.009},"breaks":[{"year":1962,"slope_before":0.000178,"slope_after":-0.000155},{"year":1997,"slope_before":-0.000155,"slope_after":-0.0000479}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.00 → 1.00; births 0k → 0k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1,"end":1,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.003,"end":0.002}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap 0%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1,"actual":1,"gap_pct":0}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":0,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.99 (−1% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.97 (−3% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.47.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1},"values":{"2050":0.987,"2100":0.972},"low_2100":0.472}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap 0%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.002,"actual":0.002,"gap_pct":0}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":0,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.01k (×2.5 vs 2023), 2100 — 0.01k (×3.5 vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.002},"values":{"2050":0.005,"2100":0.007},"low_2100":0.003}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=VAT&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}