{"locations":[{"code":"UZB","name":"Uzbekistan","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/UZB/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.17 in 1950 → 3.50 in 2023 (−32%). Peak: 6.88 in 1962; the latest value is 49% lower. The trend broke around 1964 and 2006: +0.14 → −0.11 → +0.06 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.173,"last":3.5,"peak":{"year":1962,"value":6.878},"breaks":[{"year":1964,"slope_before":0.14,"slope_after":-0.114},{"year":2006,"slope_before":-0.114,"slope_after":0.0559}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 238k in 1950 → 944k in 2023 (×4). The trend broke around 1992 and 2003: +10.8k → −18.5k → +20.5k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":237.6,"last":943.5,"breaks":[{"year":1992,"slope_before":10.8,"slope_after":-18.5},{"year":2003,"slope_before":-18.5,"slope_after":20.5}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 89.5% in 2024 (+90 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2009, above 50% since 2018. Fastest growth in 2017–2022: 48.7% → 83.9%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":89.5055,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2009,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2018,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2017,"to":2022,"start":48.7,"end":83.9}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 34.3% in 1960 → 51% in 2025 (+17 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2004. The trend broke around 1994 and 2005: +0.24 → +0.79 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":34.3304,"last":51.0173,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2004,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1994,"slope_before":0.236,"slope_after":0.789},{"year":2005,"slope_before":0.789,"slope_after":-0.0405}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 4,240 PPP dollars in 1990 → 11,623 PPP dollars in 2025 (×2.7). Low: 3,065 PPP dollars in 1996; ×3.8 since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2005: −201 → +124 → +362 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":4239.5865,"last":11622.8556,"trough":{"year":1996,"value":3064.6371},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":-201,"slope_after":124},{"year":2005,"slope_before":124,"slope_after":362}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1991–2001: 4.19 → 2.61. Over the same years: births 713k → 529k; internet 0% → 0.6%; urban share 41.1% → 48.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 4,119 PPP dollars → 3,531 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1991,"to":2001,"start":4.19,"end":2.61,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1991,"to":2001,"start":712.7,"end":529.3},{"id":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2001,"start":0,"end":0.5976},{"id":"urban_population","from":1991,"to":2001,"start":41.0845,"end":48.4902},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1991,"to":2001,"start":4118.5159,"end":3530.5497}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.45 → 3.50; births 683k → 944k; internet 26.8% → 89%; urban share 51.1% → 51%; GDP per person (PPP) 6,933 PPP dollars → 10,514 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.446,"end":3.5,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":683.3,"end":943.5},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":26.8,"end":89.0136},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":51.1277,"end":50.9965},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":6932.9337,"end":10514.0956}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.66); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.74). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.66,"r_changes":0.741,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.20); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.03).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":0.198,"r_changes":0.031,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.41). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.953,"r_changes":-0.411,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.16); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.09).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.157,"r_changes":-0.087,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +29%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.7077,"gap_pct":28.94},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.7077,"gap_pct":28.94},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":2.7077,"gap_pct":46.36},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.094,"actual":2.7077,"gap_pct":29.31},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.094,"actual":2.7077,"gap_pct":29.31},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.095,"actual":2.7077,"gap_pct":29.25},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.112,"actual":2.7077,"gap_pct":28.21},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.183,"actual":2.7077,"gap_pct":24.04},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.329,"actual":2.7077,"gap_pct":16.26},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.244,"actual":2.7077,"gap_pct":20.66},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.755,"actual":3.5,"gap_pct":27.04}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":28.94,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.55 (−27% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.94 (−44% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.44.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.5},"values":{"2050":2.553,"2100":1.943},"low_2100":1.443}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +29%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":561.157,"actual":773.01,"gap_pct":37.75},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":590.422,"actual":773.01,"gap_pct":30.92},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":523.27,"actual":773.01,"gap_pct":47.73},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":597.208,"actual":773.01,"gap_pct":29.44},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":597.105,"actual":773.01,"gap_pct":29.46},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":581.672,"actual":773.01,"gap_pct":32.89},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":576.632,"actual":773.01,"gap_pct":34.06},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":606.003,"actual":773.01,"gap_pct":27.56},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":643.205,"actual":773.01,"gap_pct":20.18},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":649.814,"actual":773.01,"gap_pct":18.96},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":755.105,"actual":943.5,"gap_pct":24.95}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":29.46,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 997k (+6% vs 2023), 2100 — 887k (−6% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 413k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":943.5},"values":{"2050":996.6,"2100":887.3},"low_2100":412.8}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=UZB&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}