{"locations":[{"code":"USA","name":"United States","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/USA/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 3.09 in 1950 → 1.57 in 2025 (−49%). Peak: 3.75 in 1958; the latest value is 58% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 1972. The trend broke around 1959 and 1973: +0.08 → −0.14 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":3.086,"last":1.574,"peak":{"year":1958,"value":3.754},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1972,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1959,"slope_before":0.0823,"slope_after":-0.135},{"year":1973,"slope_before":-0.135,"slope_after":-0.00305}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 3.7M in 1950 → 3.61M in 2025 (−2%). Peak: 4.38M in 1961; the latest value is 18% lower. The trend broke around 1960 and 1967: +73.9k → −114k → +5.08k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":3698,"last":3606.4,"peak":{"year":1961,"value":4379},"breaks":[{"year":1960,"slope_before":73.9,"slope_after":-114},{"year":1967,"slope_before":-114,"slope_after":5.08}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0.8% in 1990 → 94.7% in 2024 (+94 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1996, above 50% since 2002, above 90% since 2020. Fastest growth in 1997–2002: 21.6% → 58.8%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0.785,"last":94.6938,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1996,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1997,"to":2002,"start":21.6,"end":58.7854}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 70% in 1960 → 80.2% in 2025 (+10 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 1989. The trend broke around 1989 and 2006: +0.13 → +0.34 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":69.9799,"last":80.1922,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1989,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1989,"slope_before":0.127,"slope_after":0.335},{"year":2006,"slope_before":0.335,"slope_after":-0.0418}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 44,384 PPP dollars in 1990 → 76,931 PPP dollars in 2025 (+73%). The trend broke around 2006 and 2012: +1,114 → −35 → +1,243 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":44384.2102,"last":76931.3107,"breaks":[{"year":2006,"slope_before":1110,"slope_after":-35.2},{"year":2012,"slope_before":-35.2,"slope_after":1240}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1962–1972: 3.53 → 2.06. Over the same years: births 4.27M → 3.42M; urban share 70.9% → 73.6%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1962,"to":1972,"start":3.533,"end":2.057,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1962,"to":1972,"start":4269,"end":3418},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1962,"to":1972,"start":70.9235,"end":73.5628},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.83 → 1.57; births 3.98M → 3.61M; internet 74.6% → 94.7%; urban share 80.6% → 80.2%; GDP per person (PPP) 64,368 PPP dollars → 76,931 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.832,"end":1.574,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":3982,"end":3606.4},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":74.5542,"end":94.6938},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":80.5708,"end":80.1922},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":64367.7189,"end":76931.3107}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.56); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.89). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.558,"r_changes":0.891,"effective_pairs_changes":31,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.66); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.35).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.66,"r_changes":0.351,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.62); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.04).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.622,"r_changes":0.042,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.82); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.58). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.82,"r_changes":0.585,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −14%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":1.6234,"gap_pct":-14.56},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.95,"actual":1.6234,"gap_pct":-16.75},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.025,"actual":1.6234,"gap_pct":-19.83},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.856,"actual":1.6234,"gap_pct":-12.53},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.878,"actual":1.6234,"gap_pct":-13.56},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.883,"actual":1.6234,"gap_pct":-13.79},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.083,"actual":1.6234,"gap_pct":-22.06},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.979,"actual":1.6234,"gap_pct":-17.97},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.903,"actual":1.6234,"gap_pct":-14.69},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.893,"actual":1.6234,"gap_pct":-14.24},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.784,"actual":1.6234,"gap_pct":-9},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.663,"actual":1.574,"gap_pct":-5.35}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-14.4,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.64 (+4% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.65 (+5% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.15.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.574},"values":{"2050":1.643,"2100":1.647},"low_2100":1.147}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −15%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":3904.786,"actual":3668.2268,"gap_pct":-6.06},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":4321.476,"actual":3668.2268,"gap_pct":-15.12},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":4723.127,"actual":3668.2268,"gap_pct":-22.33},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":4257.68,"actual":3668.2268,"gap_pct":-13.84},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":4347.07,"actual":3668.2268,"gap_pct":-15.62},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":4371.051,"actual":3668.2268,"gap_pct":-16.08},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":4549.569,"actual":3668.2268,"gap_pct":-19.37},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":4460.514,"actual":3668.2268,"gap_pct":-17.76},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":4240.396,"actual":3668.2268,"gap_pct":-13.49},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":4283.102,"actual":3668.2268,"gap_pct":-14.36},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":4036.034,"actual":3668.2268,"gap_pct":-9.11},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":3775.418,"actual":3606.4,"gap_pct":-4.48}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-14.74,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 3.61M, 2% below the UN 2024 medium variant (3.66M).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"provisional","un_medium_births_k":3664,"actual_births_k":3606.4,"gap_pct":-1.6,"un_lower95_births_k":3251,"below_lower95":false,"source":"NCHS VSRR Report No. 43, Births: Provisional Data for 2025 (Apr 2026)","source_url":"https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr043.pdf"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.79M (+5% vs 2025), 2100 — 3.91M (+9% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.75M.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":3606.4},"values":{"2050":3787,"2100":3914},"low_2100":1750}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=USA&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}