{"locations":[{"code":"URY","name":"Uruguay","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/URY/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.69 in 1950 → 1.41 in 2023 (−48%). Peak: 3.02 in 1975; the latest value is 53% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 2004, below 1.5 since 2020. The trend broke around 1974 and 2016: 0 → −0.02 → −0.08 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.692,"last":1.409,"peak":{"year":1975,"value":3.017},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2004,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2020,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1974,"slope_before":0.00331,"slope_after":-0.0228},{"year":2016,"slope_before":-0.0228,"slope_after":-0.0785}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 46.9k in 1950 → 29.9k in 2024 (−36%). Peak: 61.8k in 1976; the latest value is 52% lower. The trend broke around 1974 and 2015: +0.42k → −0.3k → −1.96k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2024,"first":46.86,"last":29.899,"peak":{"year":1976,"value":61.83},"breaks":[{"year":1974,"slope_before":0.423,"slope_after":-0.303},{"year":2015,"slope_before":-0.303,"slope_after":-1.96}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 92% in 2024 (+92 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2000, above 50% since 2011, above 90% since 2023. Fastest growth in 2005–2010: 20.1% → 46.4%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":91.9911,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2000,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2011,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2023,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2005,"to":2010,"start":20.0882,"end":46.4}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 80.2% in 1960 → 95.7% in 2025 (+15 pp). The trend broke around 1975 and 1992: +0.18 → +0.41 → +0.2 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":80.167,"last":95.6537,"breaks":[{"year":1975,"slope_before":0.184,"slope_after":0.413},{"year":1992,"slope_before":0.413,"slope_after":0.198}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 14,061 PPP dollars in 1990 → 32,742 PPP dollars in 2025 (+133%). The trend broke around 2005 and 2013: +215 → +1,174 → +296 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":14060.8402,"last":32741.6247,"breaks":[{"year":2005,"slope_before":215,"slope_after":1170},{"year":2013,"slope_before":1170,"slope_after":296}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2013–2023: 2.03 → 1.41. Over the same years: births 48k → 33.4k; internet 57.7% → 90.9%; urban share 94.9% → 95.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 28,119 PPP dollars → 31,101 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.034,"end":1.409,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":47.96,"end":33.44},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":57.69,"end":90.9259},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":94.8845,"end":95.544},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":28119.4727,"end":31100.9697}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.87); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.98). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.867,"r_changes":0.983,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 31 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.93); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.23). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":31,"r_levels":-0.928,"r_changes":-0.229,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.93); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.03). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.932,"r_changes":-0.034,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.85); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.27). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.854,"r_changes":0.272,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −11%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.101,"actual":1.7614,"gap_pct":-16.16},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.7614,"gap_pct":-16.12},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.7614,"gap_pct":-16.12},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.033,"actual":1.7614,"gap_pct":-13.36},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.958,"actual":1.7614,"gap_pct":-10.04},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.958,"actual":1.7614,"gap_pct":-10.04},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.979,"actual":1.7614,"gap_pct":-11},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.004,"actual":1.7614,"gap_pct":-12.11},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.98,"actual":1.7614,"gap_pct":-11.04},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.979,"actual":1.7614,"gap_pct":-11},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.481,"actual":1.409,"gap_pct":-4.86}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-11.04,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection did not expect today's level (1.41, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.409,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.44 (+2% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.52 (+8% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.02.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.409},"values":{"2050":1.437,"2100":1.517},"low_2100":1.017}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −14%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":55.412,"actual":41.579,"gap_pct":-24.96},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":55.039,"actual":41.579,"gap_pct":-24.46},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":55.039,"actual":41.579,"gap_pct":-24.46},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":53.3,"actual":41.579,"gap_pct":-21.99},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":47.614,"actual":41.579,"gap_pct":-12.67},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":47.573,"actual":41.579,"gap_pct":-12.6},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":48.072,"actual":41.579,"gap_pct":-13.51},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":48.556,"actual":41.579,"gap_pct":-14.37},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":48.101,"actual":41.579,"gap_pct":-13.56},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":48.06,"actual":41.579,"gap_pct":-13.49},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2024,"period":1,"expected":35.563,"actual":29.899,"gap_pct":-15.93}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-14.37,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (29.9k, 2024) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":29.899,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (29.9k, 2024) only around 2094: reality is 70 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":29.899,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2094,"years":70,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2024: 29.9k, 10% below the UN 2024 medium variant (33.2k).","data":{"year":2024,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":33.2,"actual_births_k":29.899,"gap_pct":-9.9,"un_lower95_births_k":27.06,"below_lower95":false,"source":"UN VSR table 3 (16 Sep 2026)","source_url":"https://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic-social/products/vitstats/seratab3.pdf"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 26.9k (−10% vs 2024), 2100 — 15.5k (−48% vs 2024); low variant for 2100: 4.57k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2024,"value":29.899},"values":{"2050":26.94,"2100":15.5},"low_2100":4.565}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=URY&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}