{"locations":[{"code":"UKR","name":"Ukraine","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/UKR/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.45 in 1950 → 0.98 in 2023 (−60%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1987, below 1.5 since 2014, below 1.0 since 2022. The trend broke around 1989 and 1997: −0.01 → −0.08 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.447,"last":0.977,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1987,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2014,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1,"year":2022,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1989,"slope_before":-0.0104,"slope_after":-0.082},{"year":1997,"slope_before":-0.082,"slope_after":0.000349}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 854k in 1950 → 212k in 2023 (−75%). Peak: 892k in 1960; the latest value is 76% lower. The trend broke around 1989 and 1995: −2.65k → −39.9k → −4.43k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":853.7,"last":212.2,"peak":{"year":1960,"value":892},"breaks":[{"year":1989,"slope_before":-2.65,"slope_after":-39.9},{"year":1995,"slope_before":-39.9,"slope_after":-4.43}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 82.5% in 2024 (+82 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2008, above 50% since 2016. Fastest growth in 2008–2013: 11% → 41%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":82.4749,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2008,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2016,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2008,"to":2013,"start":11,"end":40.9541}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 47.4% in 1960 → 69.6% in 2025 (+22 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1964. The trend broke around 1989: change slowed down (+0.55 → +0.07 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":47.3638,"last":69.5955,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1964,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1989,"slope_before":0.55,"slope_after":0.0686}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 22,816 PPP dollars in 1990 → 16,155 PPP dollars in 2025 (−29%). Low: 9,646 PPP dollars in 1998; +67% since then. The trend broke around 1997 and 2007: −2,080 → +986 → −100 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":22815.7988,"last":16155.0732,"trough":{"year":1998,"value":9646.0547},"breaks":[{"year":1997,"slope_before":-2080,"slope_after":986},{"year":2007,"slope_before":986,"slope_after":-99.5}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1988–1998: 2.04 → 1.21. Over the same years: births 758k → 423k; internet 0.3% (1998); urban share 66.6% → 67.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 9,646 PPP dollars (1998).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1988,"to":1998,"start":2.042,"end":1.206,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1988,"to":1998,"start":757.5,"end":423.2},{"id":"internet_users","year":1998,"value":0.301},{"id":"urban_population","from":1988,"to":1998,"start":66.6282,"end":67.5547},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1998,"value":9646.0547}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.52 → 0.98; births 515k → 212k; internet 41% → 81.6%; urban share 68.9% → 69.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 17,889 PPP dollars → 15,917 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.515,"end":0.977,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":515.3,"end":212.2},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":40.9541,"end":81.5806},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":68.9326,"end":69.4754},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":17889.0918,"end":15916.958}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.98); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.91). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.981,"r_changes":0.908,"effective_pairs_changes":30,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 32 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.29); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.25).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":32,"r_levels":-0.286,"r_changes":0.247,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.75); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.27). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.755,"r_changes":0.274,"effective_pairs_changes":24,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.58); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.70). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":0.582,"r_changes":0.704,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 8 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 3; median gap −15%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.52,"actual":1.2879,"gap_pct":-15.27},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.25,"actual":1.2879,"gap_pct":3.03},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.28,"actual":1.2879,"gap_pct":0.62},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.25,"actual":1.2879,"gap_pct":3.03},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.292,"actual":1.2879,"gap_pct":-0.32},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.574,"actual":1.2879,"gap_pct":-18.18},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.565,"actual":1.2879,"gap_pct":-17.71},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.519,"actual":1.2879,"gap_pct":-15.21},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.555,"actual":1.2879,"gap_pct":-17.18},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.557,"actual":1.2879,"gap_pct":-17.28},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.281,"actual":0.977,"gap_pct":-23.73}],"actual_lower":8,"actual_higher":3,"median_gap_pct":-15.27,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.14 (+17% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.30 (+33% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.80.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.977},"values":{"2050":1.141,"2100":1.304},"low_2100":0.804}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −12%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":443.417,"actual":389.94,"gap_pct":-12.06},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":352.543,"actual":389.94,"gap_pct":10.61},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":364.058,"actual":389.94,"gap_pct":7.11},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":346.224,"actual":389.94,"gap_pct":12.63},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":367.089,"actual":389.94,"gap_pct":6.22},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":462.756,"actual":389.94,"gap_pct":-15.74},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":463.665,"actual":389.94,"gap_pct":-15.9},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":457.499,"actual":389.94,"gap_pct":-14.77},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":472.142,"actual":389.94,"gap_pct":-17.41},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":461.622,"actual":389.94,"gap_pct":-15.53},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":184.455,"actual":212.2,"gap_pct":15.04}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-12.06,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection did not expect today's level (212k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":212.2,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection did not expect today's level (212k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":212.2,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 188k (−11% vs 2023), 2100 — 79.1k (−63% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 15.7k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":212.2},"values":{"2050":188.3,"2100":79.12},"low_2100":15.66}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=UKR&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}