{"locations":[{"code":"UGA","name":"Uganda","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/UGA/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.66 in 1950 → 4.28 in 2023 (−36%). Peak: 7.20 in 1975; the latest value is 41% lower. The trend broke around 1974 and 2004: +0.03 → −0.02 → −0.13 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.657,"last":4.283,"peak":{"year":1975,"value":7.202},"breaks":[{"year":1974,"slope_before":0.0256,"slope_after":-0.0179},{"year":2004,"slope_before":-0.0179,"slope_after":-0.13}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 301k in 1950 → 1.71M in 2023 (×5.7).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":301.3,"last":1713}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 8.9% in 2024 (+8.9 pp). Peak: 11.7% in 2019; the latest value is 24% lower. Fastest growth in 2014–2019: 5.4% → 11.7%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":8.9498,"peak":{"year":2019,"value":11.7258},"fastest_growth":{"from":2014,"to":2019,"start":5.4,"end":11.7258}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 4.4% in 1960 → 31.9% in 2025 (+28 pp). The trend broke around 2004: change sped up (+0.19 → +1.2 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":4.3629,"last":31.94,"breaks":[{"year":2004,"slope_before":0.186,"slope_after":1.16}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 1,080 PPP dollars in 1990 → 2,980 PPP dollars in 2025 (×2.8). The trend broke around 2004 and 2011: +47 → +95 → +38 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":1080.0383,"last":2980.3794,"breaks":[{"year":2004,"slope_before":46.6,"slope_after":94.5},{"year":2011,"slope_before":94.5,"slope_after":37.9}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2010–2020: 6.02 → 4.62. Over the same years: births 1.39M → 1.64M; internet 4.3% → 7.4%; urban share 18.8% → 28.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 2,245 PPP dollars → 2,678 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2010,"to":2020,"start":6.019,"end":4.621,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2010,"to":2020,"start":1389,"end":1636},{"id":"internet_users","from":2010,"to":2020,"start":4.3,"end":7.4},{"id":"urban_population","from":2010,"to":2020,"start":18.7991,"end":28.54},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2010,"to":2020,"start":2244.606,"end":2678.0091}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.78); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.61). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.782,"r_changes":0.613,"effective_pairs_changes":29,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.97); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.07). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.967,"r_changes":-0.071,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.98); year-to-year changes are related too (r = −0.60). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.978,"r_changes":-0.604,"effective_pairs_changes":17,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.13). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.944,"r_changes":-0.129,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −9.7%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.606,"actual":4.9292,"gap_pct":7.02},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.85,"actual":4.9292,"gap_pct":-15.74},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.927,"actual":4.9292,"gap_pct":-16.83},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.498,"actual":4.9292,"gap_pct":-24.14},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.481,"actual":4.9292,"gap_pct":-10.07},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.382,"actual":4.9292,"gap_pct":-8.41},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.423,"actual":4.9292,"gap_pct":-9.11},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.436,"actual":4.9292,"gap_pct":-9.32},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.457,"actual":4.9292,"gap_pct":-9.67},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.456,"actual":4.9292,"gap_pct":-9.66},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4.357,"actual":4.283,"gap_pct":-1.7}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-9.66,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (4.28) already around 2019: reality is 4 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.283,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2019,"years":4,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (4.28, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.283,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.61 (−39% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.90 (−56% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.40.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4.283},"values":{"2050":2.606,"2100":1.898},"low_2100":1.398}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −13%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1388.31,"actual":1545,"gap_pct":11.29},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1850.96,"actual":1545,"gap_pct":-16.53},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1898.237,"actual":1545,"gap_pct":-18.61},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2174.001,"actual":1545,"gap_pct":-28.93},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1809.078,"actual":1545,"gap_pct":-14.6},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1770.059,"actual":1545,"gap_pct":-12.71},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1743.972,"actual":1545,"gap_pct":-11.41},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1783.625,"actual":1545,"gap_pct":-13.38},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1757.038,"actual":1545,"gap_pct":-12.07},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1808.885,"actual":1545,"gap_pct":-14.59},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1729.033,"actual":1713,"gap_pct":-0.93}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-13.38,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected this level (1.71M) already around 2013: reality is 10 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1713,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2013,"years":10,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected this level (1.71M) already around 2015: reality is 8 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1713,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2015,"years":8,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.85M (+8% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.37M (−20% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 566k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1713},"values":{"2050":1850,"2100":1371},"low_2100":566}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=UGA&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}