{"locations":[{"code":"TZA","name":"Tanzania","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/TZA/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.18 in 1950 → 4.61 in 2023 (−26%). Peak: 7.12 in 1974; the latest value is 35% lower. The trend broke around 1977 and 1993: +0.04 → −0.08 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.183,"last":4.606,"peak":{"year":1974,"value":7.123},"breaks":[{"year":1977,"slope_before":0.039,"slope_after":-0.0757},{"year":1993,"slope_before":-0.0757,"slope_after":-0.0438}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 350k in 1950 → 2.35M in 2023 (×6.7).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":349.9,"last":2346}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 31.2% in 2024 (+31 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2015. Fastest growth in 2019–2024: 16.6% → 31.2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":31.1621,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2015,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2019,"to":2024,"start":16.5909,"end":31.1621}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 4.9% in 1960 → 36.9% in 2025 (+32 pp). The trend broke around 1969 and 1976: +0.05 → +0.97 → +0.48 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":4.888,"last":36.8833,"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":0.0503,"slope_after":0.966},{"year":1976,"slope_before":0.966,"slope_after":0.481}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 1,794 PPP dollars in 1990 → 3,821 PPP dollars in 2025 (+113%). Low: 1,680 PPP dollars in 1994; +127% since then. The trend broke around 1999: direction reversed (−2 → +86 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":1794.2046,"last":3820.6118,"trough":{"year":1994,"value":1679.6624},"breaks":[{"year":1999,"slope_before":-1.97,"slope_after":85.9}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1984–1994: 6.72 → 5.89. Over the same years: births 1.01M → 1.22M; urban share 16.6% → 20.2%; GDP per person (PPP) 1,680 PPP dollars (1994); no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1984,"to":1994,"start":6.715,"end":5.894,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1984,"to":1994,"start":1010,"end":1222},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1984,"to":1994,"start":16.5906,"end":20.2073},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1994,"value":1679.6624}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 5.16 → 4.61; births 1.88M → 2.35M; internet 4.4% → 28.4%; urban share 30.1% → 35.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 2,925 PPP dollars → 3,621 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":5.156,"end":4.606,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1875,"end":2346},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.4,"end":28.4319},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":30.0725,"end":35.4748},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2924.8633,"end":3620.7935}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.87); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.60). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.865,"r_changes":0.602,"effective_pairs_changes":38,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 29 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.87); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.03). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":29,"r_levels":-0.869,"r_changes":-0.026,"effective_pairs_changes":17,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.01). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.923,"r_changes":0.011,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.97); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.34). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.965,"r_changes":0.335,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.675,"actual":4.941,"gap_pct":34.45},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.68,"actual":4.941,"gap_pct":34.27},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.454,"actual":4.941,"gap_pct":43.05},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.419,"actual":4.941,"gap_pct":44.52},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.997,"actual":4.941,"gap_pct":23.62},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.796,"actual":4.941,"gap_pct":3.02},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.357,"actual":4.941,"gap_pct":-7.77},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.91,"actual":4.941,"gap_pct":0.63},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.92,"actual":4.941,"gap_pct":0.43},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.924,"actual":4.941,"gap_pct":0.35},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4.588,"actual":4.606,"gap_pct":0.39}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":3.02,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (4.61) already around 2007: reality is 16 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.606,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2007,"years":16,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected this level (4.61) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.606,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.23 (−30% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.26 (−51% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.76.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4.606},"values":{"2050":3.229,"2100":2.262},"low_2100":1.762}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +3.8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1572.022,"actual":2106.9,"gap_pct":34.02},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1574.049,"actual":2106.9,"gap_pct":33.85},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1463.906,"actual":2106.9,"gap_pct":43.92},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1404.281,"actual":2106.9,"gap_pct":50.03},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1651.011,"actual":2106.9,"gap_pct":27.61},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2030.075,"actual":2106.9,"gap_pct":3.78},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2252.093,"actual":2106.9,"gap_pct":-6.45},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2087.97,"actual":2106.9,"gap_pct":0.91},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2165.845,"actual":2106.9,"gap_pct":-2.72},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2189.397,"actual":2106.9,"gap_pct":-3.77},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2384.603,"actual":2346,"gap_pct":-1.62}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":3.78,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2008 projection expected today's level (2.35M, 2023) only around 2041: reality is 18 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2008","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2346,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2041,"years":18,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (2.35M, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2346,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.34M (+42% vs 2023), 2100 — 4.16M (+77% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 2.23M.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2346},"values":{"2050":3339,"2100":4156},"low_2100":2227}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=TZA&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}