{"locations":[{"code":"TWN","name":"Taiwan","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/TWN/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.48 in 1950 → 0.70 in 2025 (−89%). Peak: 6.69 in 1952; the latest value is 90% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1984, below 1.5 since 2000, below 1.0 since 2020. The trend broke around 1956 and 1981: −0.02 → −0.18 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":6.481,"last":0.695,"peak":{"year":1952,"value":6.687},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1984,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2000,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1,"year":2020,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1956,"slope_before":-0.0189,"slope_after":-0.178},{"year":1981,"slope_before":-0.178,"slope_after":-0.0302}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 342k in 1950 → 108k in 2025 (−68%). Peak: 432k in 1962; the latest value is 75% lower. The trend broke around 1956 and 1980: +12.4k → −0.99k → −6.14k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":341.6,"last":107.812,"peak":{"year":1962,"value":432},"breaks":[{"year":1956,"slope_before":12.4,"slope_after":-0.986},{"year":1980,"slope_before":-0.986,"slope_after":-6.14}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1963–1973: 5.39 → 3.25. Over the same years: births 431k → 372k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":5.387,"end":3.249,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":431.3,"end":371.8}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.19 → 0.70; births 212k → 108k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.185,"end":0.695,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":212.3,"end":107.812}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.74); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.79). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.743,"r_changes":0.788,"effective_pairs_changes":46,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 6 revisions (2010–2022) and above in none; median gap −29%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.191,"actual":0.8895,"gap_pct":-25.31},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.278,"actual":0.8895,"gap_pct":-30.4},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.06,"actual":0.8895,"gap_pct":-16.08},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.313,"actual":0.8895,"gap_pct":-32.25},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.236,"actual":0.8895,"gap_pct":-28.03},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.183,"actual":0.695,"gap_pct":-41.25}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-29.21,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.08 (+55% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.33 (+91% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 0.83.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":0.695},"values":{"2050":1.075,"2100":1.327},"low_2100":0.827}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 6 revisions (2010–2022) and above in none; median gap −30%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":177.222,"actual":138.595,"gap_pct":-21.8},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":197.888,"actual":138.595,"gap_pct":-29.96},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":168.132,"actual":138.595,"gap_pct":-17.57},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":212.873,"actual":138.595,"gap_pct":-34.89},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":200.348,"actual":138.595,"gap_pct":-30.82},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":186.911,"actual":107.812,"gap_pct":-42.32}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-30.39,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection did not expect today's level (108k, 2025) before its horizon ended (2097).","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":107.812,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection did not expect today's level (108k, 2025) before its horizon ended (2100).","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":107.812,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 108k, 14% below the UN 2024 medium variant (125k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":125.3,"actual_births_k":107.812,"gap_pct":-14,"un_lower95_births_k":86.5,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Ministry of the Interior, as reported by People News (2026-01-09, births) and Liberty Times (2026-04-05, TFR)","source_url":"https://www.peoplenews.tw/?p=11380"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 105k (−3% vs 2025), 2100 — 58.1k (−46% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 17.9k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":107.812},"values":{"2050":104.5,"2100":58.05},"low_2100":17.85}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=TWN&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}