{"locations":[{"code":"TUV","name":"Tuvalu","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/TUV/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.42 in 1950 → 3.21 in 2023 (−41%). The trend broke around 1977 and 1985: −0.08 → +0.06 → −0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.417,"last":3.208,"breaks":[{"year":1977,"slope_before":-0.0814,"slope_after":0.0576},{"year":1985,"slope_before":0.0576,"slope_after":-0.0217}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.23k in 1950 → 0.23k in 2023 (−1%). Peak: 0.31k in 1987; the latest value is 27% lower. The trend broke around 1974 and 1983: 0k → +0.02k → 0k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.228,"last":0.226,"peak":{"year":1987,"value":0.309},"breaks":[{"year":1974,"slope_before":-0.00417,"slope_after":0.0155},{"year":1983,"slope_before":0.0155,"slope_after":-0.00165}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 35.2% in 2017 (+35 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2007. Fastest growth in 2012–2017: 18.7% → 35.2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2017,"first":0,"last":35.2,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2007,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2012,"to":2017,"start":18.7,"end":35.2}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 12.4% in 1960 → 65.4% in 2025 (+53 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2006. The trend broke around 1974 and 1980: +0.23 → +2.6 → +0.78 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":12.3672,"last":65.4481,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2006,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1974,"slope_before":0.226,"slope_after":2.6},{"year":1980,"slope_before":2.6,"slope_after":0.779}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 3,120 PPP dollars in 1990 → 5,776 PPP dollars in 2025 (+85%). The trend broke around 2001 and 2012: +81 → −18 → +162 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":3120.2811,"last":5776.0785,"breaks":[{"year":2001,"slope_before":80.7,"slope_after":-17.6},{"year":2012,"slope_before":-17.6,"slope_after":162}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1963–1973: 4.91 → 3.71. Over the same years: births 0.2k → 0.17k; urban share 12.6% → 14.7%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":4.914,"end":3.712,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":0.197,"end":0.167},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":12.62,"end":14.71},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.39 → 3.21; births 0.25k → 0.23k; internet 21.2% (2013); urban share 57.6% → 64%; GDP per person (PPP) 3,833 PPP dollars → 5,315 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.389,"end":3.208,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.251,"end":0.226},{"id":"internet_users","year":2013,"value":21.2},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":57.6314,"end":64.0117},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3833.4896,"end":5315.163}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.15); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.61). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.153,"r_changes":0.61,"effective_pairs_changes":10,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2017, 19 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.85); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.25). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2017,"years":19,"r_levels":-0.85,"r_changes":-0.253,"effective_pairs_changes":8,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.77); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.39). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.769,"r_changes":0.394,"effective_pairs_changes":9,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.71); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.00). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.71,"r_changes":-0.004,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +3.3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.105,"actual":3.208,"gap_pct":3.32}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":3.32,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.48 (−23% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.95 (−39% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.45.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.208},"values":{"2050":2.479,"2100":1.952},"low_2100":1.452}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −13%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.261,"actual":0.226,"gap_pct":-13.41}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-13.41,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.19k (−17% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.15k (−32% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.07k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.226},"values":{"2050":0.188,"2100":0.153},"low_2100":0.069}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=TUV&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}