{"locations":[{"code":"TUN","name":"Tunisia","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/TUN/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.68 in 1950 → 1.83 in 2023 (−73%). Peak: 7.17 in 1963; the latest value is 74% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2020. The trend broke around 1966 and 2000: +0.03 → −0.15 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.68,"last":1.832,"peak":{"year":1963,"value":7.17},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2020,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":0.026,"slope_after":-0.154},{"year":2000,"slope_before":-0.154,"slope_after":0.00413}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 168k in 1950 → 126k in 2024 (−25%). Peak: 237k in 1986; the latest value is 47% lower. The trend broke around 1986 and 1998: +1.63k → −5.59k → +0.8k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2024,"first":168.2,"last":126.401,"peak":{"year":1986,"value":237.3},"breaks":[{"year":1986,"slope_before":1.63,"slope_after":-5.59},{"year":1998,"slope_before":-5.59,"slope_after":0.797}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 76.5% in 2024 (+77 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2006, above 50% since 2017. Fastest growth in 2005–2010: 9.7% → 36.8%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":76.5,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2006,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2017,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2005,"to":2010,"start":9.6551,"end":36.8}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 37.5% in 1960 → 70.7% in 2025 (+33 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1976. The trend broke around 1999: change slowed down (+0.61 → +0.27 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":37.4663,"last":70.7029,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1976,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1999,"slope_before":0.614,"slope_after":0.274}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 6,743 PPP dollars in 1990 → 13,018 PPP dollars in 2025 (+93%). The trend broke around 1996 and 2010: +147 → +344 → +26 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":6742.5843,"last":13017.634,"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":147,"slope_after":344},{"year":2010,"slope_before":344,"slope_after":26.2}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1986–1996: 4.36 → 2.49. Over the same years: births 237k → 184k; internet 0% (1996); urban share 54.3% → 62.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 7,822 PPP dollars (1996).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1986,"to":1996,"start":4.361,"end":2.488,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1986,"to":1996,"start":237.3,"end":183.7},{"id":"internet_users","year":1996,"value":0.0276},{"id":"urban_population","from":1986,"to":1996,"start":54.3249,"end":62.0785},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1996,"value":7821.7922}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.31 → 1.83; births 220k → 168k; internet 43.8% → 76.5%; urban share 67.5% → 70%; GDP per person (PPP) 12,588 PPP dollars → 12,651 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.31,"end":1.832,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":220.1,"end":167.7},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2024,"start":43.8,"end":76.5},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":67.5,"end":70.0267},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":12587.9951,"end":12650.9615}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.36); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.72). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.365,"r_changes":0.718,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2021, 29 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.27); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.30).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2021,"years":29,"r_levels":-0.271,"r_changes":0.297,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.98); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.37). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.982,"r_changes":-0.366,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.67); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.16).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.673,"r_changes":0.161,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +14%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.1732,"gap_pct":3.49},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.1732,"gap_pct":3.49},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":2.1732,"gap_pct":17.47},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.696,"actual":2.1732,"gap_pct":28.14},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.798,"actual":2.1732,"gap_pct":20.87},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.798,"actual":2.1732,"gap_pct":20.87},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.798,"actual":2.1732,"gap_pct":20.87},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.914,"actual":2.1732,"gap_pct":13.54},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.07,"actual":2.1732,"gap_pct":4.99},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.147,"actual":2.1732,"gap_pct":1.22},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.042,"actual":1.832,"gap_pct":-10.28}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":13.54,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2015 projection expected today's level (1.83, 2023) only around 2047: reality is 24 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2015","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.832,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2047,"years":24,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (1.83, 2023) only around 2047: reality is 24 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.832,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2047,"years":24,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.70 (−7% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.67 (−9% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.17.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.832},"values":{"2050":1.704,"2100":1.666},"low_2100":1.166}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +13%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":200.063,"actual":207.84,"gap_pct":3.89},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":194.106,"actual":207.84,"gap_pct":7.08},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":174.747,"actual":207.84,"gap_pct":18.94},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":162.725,"actual":207.84,"gap_pct":27.72},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":172.838,"actual":207.84,"gap_pct":20.25},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":168.868,"actual":207.84,"gap_pct":23.08},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":171.553,"actual":207.84,"gap_pct":21.15},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":183.13,"actual":207.84,"gap_pct":13.49},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":196.068,"actual":207.84,"gap_pct":6},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":202.907,"actual":207.84,"gap_pct":2.43},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2024,"period":1,"expected":183.782,"actual":126.401,"gap_pct":-31.22}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":13.49,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (126k, 2024) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":126.401,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (126k, 2024) only around 2093: reality is 69 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":126.401,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2093,"years":69,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2024: 126k, 23% below the UN 2024 medium variant (164k) and below its 95% interval.","data":{"year":2024,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":164.1,"actual_births_k":126.401,"gap_pct":-23,"un_lower95_births_k":132.9,"below_lower95":true,"source":"INS Tunisia, Statistiques - Naissances","source_url":"https://www.ins.tn/statistiques/112"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 146k (+16% vs 2024), 2100 — 84.7k (−33% vs 2024); low variant for 2100: 28k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2024,"value":126.401},"values":{"2050":146.3,"2100":84.72},"low_2100":28.01}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=TUN&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}