{"locations":[{"code":"TTO","name":"Trinidad and Tobago","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/TTO/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.18 in 1950 → 1.53 in 2023 (−70%). Peak: 5.41 in 1960; the latest value is 72% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 1994. The trend broke around 1962 and 1973: +0.02 → −0.2 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.181,"last":1.532,"peak":{"year":1960,"value":5.405},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1994,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1962,"slope_before":0.0157,"slope_after":-0.199},{"year":1973,"slope_before":-0.199,"slope_after":-0.0414}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 25.9k in 1950 → 16.1k in 2023 (−38%). Peak: 33.6k in 1983; the latest value is 52% lower. The trend broke around 1986 and 1995: +0.11k → −1.24k → −0.13k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":25.91,"last":16.09,"peak":{"year":1983,"value":33.55},"breaks":[{"year":1986,"slope_before":0.11,"slope_after":-1.24},{"year":1995,"slope_before":-1.24,"slope_after":-0.131}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 82.2% in 2024 (+82 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2001, above 50% since 2011. Fastest growth in 2007–2012: 32.3% → 57.5%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":82.1599,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2001,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2011,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2007,"to":2012,"start":32.3,"end":57.5}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 17.5% in 1960 → 54% in 2025 (+36 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1978. The trend broke around 1976 and 1992: +2.1 → +0.35 → −0.08 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":17.5176,"last":53.9696,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1978,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":2.13,"slope_after":0.349},{"year":1992,"slope_before":0.349,"slope_after":-0.0767}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 11,870 PPP dollars in 1990 → 31,722 PPP dollars in 2025 (×2.7). Peak: 39,249 PPP dollars in 2014; the latest value is 19% lower. The trend broke around 2001 and 2008: +780 → +2,548 → −369 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":11869.5287,"last":31721.5757,"peak":{"year":2014,"value":39248.6571},"breaks":[{"year":2001,"slope_before":780,"slope_after":2550},{"year":2008,"slope_before":2550,"slope_after":-369}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1962–1972: 5.36 → 3.55. Over the same years: births 32.9k → 28k; urban share 19.5% → 42.2%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1962,"to":1972,"start":5.358,"end":3.551,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1962,"to":1972,"start":32.88,"end":27.96},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1962,"to":1972,"start":19.5017,"end":42.2409},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.60 → 1.53; births 19.1k → 16.1k; internet 59.9% → 82%; urban share 53.9% → 54%; GDP per person (PPP) 37,994 PPP dollars → 31,197 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.603,"end":1.532,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":19.09,"end":16.09},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":59.9,"end":81.9681},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":53.9256,"end":53.9537},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":37994.0686,"end":31196.6036}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.76); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.81). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.764,"r_changes":0.811,"effective_pairs_changes":9,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.71); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.29). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.707,"r_changes":0.293,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.91); year-to-year changes are related too (r = −0.58). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.914,"r_changes":-0.583,"effective_pairs_changes":11,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.84); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.41). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.836,"r_changes":0.409,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −8.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.738,"actual":1.5896,"gap_pct":-8.54},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.72,"actual":1.5896,"gap_pct":-7.58},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.67,"actual":1.5896,"gap_pct":-4.81},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.72,"actual":1.5896,"gap_pct":-7.58},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.735,"actual":1.5896,"gap_pct":-8.38},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.735,"actual":1.5896,"gap_pct":-8.38},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.623,"actual":1.5896,"gap_pct":-2.06},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.79,"actual":1.5896,"gap_pct":-11.2},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.73,"actual":1.5896,"gap_pct":-8.12},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.73,"actual":1.5896,"gap_pct":-8.12},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.602,"actual":1.532,"gap_pct":-4.37}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-8.12,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.52 (−1% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.57 (+2% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.07.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.532},"values":{"2050":1.518,"2100":1.565},"low_2100":1.065}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 6; median gap +0.6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":18.617,"actual":18.013,"gap_pct":-3.24},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":18.514,"actual":18.013,"gap_pct":-2.71},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":17.43,"actual":18.013,"gap_pct":3.34},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":17.857,"actual":18.013,"gap_pct":0.87},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":19.122,"actual":18.013,"gap_pct":-5.8},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":19.015,"actual":18.013,"gap_pct":-5.27},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":17.58,"actual":18.013,"gap_pct":2.46},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":17.391,"actual":18.013,"gap_pct":3.58},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":17.914,"actual":18.013,"gap_pct":0.55},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":17.86,"actual":18.013,"gap_pct":0.86},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":17.014,"actual":16.09,"gap_pct":-5.43}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":0.55,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected today's level (16.1k, 2023) only around 2028: reality is 5 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":16.09,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2028,"years":5,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (16.1k, 2023) only around 2028: reality is 5 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":16.09,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2028,"years":5,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 11.8k (−27% vs 2023), 2100 — 6.85k (−57% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 2.01k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":16.09},"values":{"2050":11.77,"2100":6.853},"low_2100":2.005}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=TTO&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}