{"locations":[{"code":"TON","name":"Tonga","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/TON/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.70 in 1950 → 3.13 in 2023 (−53%). The trend broke around 1961: change sped up (−0.01 → −0.06 a year).","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.699,"last":3.13,"breaks":[{"year":1961,"slope_before":-0.0057,"slope_after":-0.0594}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 2.15k in 1950 → 2.42k in 2023 (+13%). Peak: 3.53k in 1980; the latest value is 31% lower. The trend broke around 1962 and 1981: +0.08k → +0.02k → −0.02k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.148,"last":2.418,"peak":{"year":1980,"value":3.526},"breaks":[{"year":1962,"slope_before":0.0767,"slope_after":0.0236},{"year":1981,"slope_before":0.0236,"slope_after":-0.0232}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 67.4% in 2024 (+67 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2009, above 50% since 2019. Fastest growth in 2009–2014: 10% → 36%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":67.4417,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2009,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2019,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2009,"to":2014,"start":10,"end":35.9544}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 18.3% in 1960 → 21.2% in 2025 (+2.9 pp). The trend broke around 1998 and 2014: +0.11 → +0.04 → −0.25 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":18.2605,"last":21.1561,"breaks":[{"year":1998,"slope_before":0.106,"slope_after":0.0362},{"year":2014,"slope_before":0.0362,"slope_after":-0.25}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 4,488 PPP dollars in 1990 → 7,413 PPP dollars in 2025 (+65%). The trend broke around 2002 and 2009: +119 → −72 → +118 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":4488.3942,"last":7412.8664,"breaks":[{"year":2002,"slope_before":119,"slope_after":-72.1},{"year":2009,"slope_before":-72.1,"slope_after":118}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1986–1996: 5.27 → 4.46. Over the same years: births 3.37k → 3.07k; internet 0.2% (1996); urban share 21.5% → 22.9%; GDP per person (PPP) 5,511 PPP dollars (1996).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1986,"to":1996,"start":5.273,"end":4.455,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1986,"to":1996,"start":3.367,"end":3.066},{"id":"internet_users","year":1996,"value":0.164},{"id":"urban_population","from":1986,"to":1996,"start":21.5331,"end":22.8857},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1996,"value":5511.4145}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.70 → 3.13; births 2.88k → 2.42k; internet 32.8% → 64.1%; urban share 23.4% → 21.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 5,952 PPP dollars → 7,031 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.696,"end":3.13,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.877,"end":2.418},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":32.754,"end":64.1314},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":23.4171,"end":21.1479},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":5952.4569,"end":7031.3202}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.13); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.80). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.132,"r_changes":0.796,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.19). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year. Changes line up best with a 8 years shift: \"Fertility (TFR)\" moves first, then \"Internet\" (r = 0.75).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.95,"r_changes":-0.194,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":false,"lag":{"years":8,"r":0.748,"leader":"tfr"}}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.84); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.05). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.838,"r_changes":-0.052,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.29). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.94,"r_changes":-0.29,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 9 revisions (2002–2022) and above in 4; median gap −0.7%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.7,"actual":3.3676,"gap_pct":24.73},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.678,"actual":3.3676,"gap_pct":25.75},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.055,"actual":3.3676,"gap_pct":10.23},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.234,"actual":3.3676,"gap_pct":4.13},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.559,"actual":3.3676,"gap_pct":-5.38},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.569,"actual":3.3676,"gap_pct":-5.64},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.577,"actual":3.3676,"gap_pct":-5.85},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.576,"actual":3.3676,"gap_pct":-5.83},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.153,"actual":3.13,"gap_pct":-0.73}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-0.73,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected this level (3.13) already around 2009: reality is 14 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.13,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2009,"years":14,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (3.13, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.13,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.45 (−22% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.93 (−38% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.43.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.13},"values":{"2050":2.452,"2100":1.931},"low_2100":1.431}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 9 revisions (2002–2022) and above in 8; median gap +2.4%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.427,"actual":2.5867,"gap_pct":6.58},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.946,"actual":2.5867,"gap_pct":32.92},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.407,"actual":2.5867,"gap_pct":7.47},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.331,"actual":2.5867,"gap_pct":10.97},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.531,"actual":2.5867,"gap_pct":2.2},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.541,"actual":2.5867,"gap_pct":1.8},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.526,"actual":2.5867,"gap_pct":2.4},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.546,"actual":2.5867,"gap_pct":1.6},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.449,"actual":2.418,"gap_pct":-1.27}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":8,"median_gap_pct":2.4,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected this level (2.42k) already around 2017: reality is 6 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.418,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2017,"years":6,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2006 projection expected this level (2.42k) already around 2016: reality is 7 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2006","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.418,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2016,"years":7,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.96k (−19% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.37k (−44% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.53k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.418},"values":{"2050":1.961,"2100":1.365},"low_2100":0.525}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=TON&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}