{"locations":[{"code":"TLS","name":"Timor-Leste","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/TLS/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.61 in 1950 → 2.71 in 2023 (−59%). The trend broke around 1976 and 2002: −0.06 → +0.03 → −0.17 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.605,"last":2.707,"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":-0.0588,"slope_after":0.0322},{"year":2002,"slope_before":0.0322,"slope_after":-0.171}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 17.8k in 1950 → 30.6k in 2023 (+71%). Peak: 39.1k in 1999; the latest value is 22% lower. The trend broke around 1975 and 1996: +0.26k → +0.55k → −0.21k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":17.83,"last":30.56,"peak":{"year":1999,"value":39.1},"breaks":[{"year":1975,"slope_before":0.259,"slope_after":0.553},{"year":1996,"slope_before":0.553,"slope_after":-0.212}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 35% in 2021 (+35 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2013. Fastest growth in 2011–2016: 4% → 21.2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2021,"first":0,"last":35.042,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2013,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2011,"to":2016,"start":4,"end":21.2}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 10.1% in 1960 → 28.8% in 2025 (+19 pp). The trend broke around 1966 and 2012: +0.12 → +0.41 → −0.09 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":10.0841,"last":28.7864,"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":0.119,"slope_after":0.413},{"year":2012,"slope_before":0.413,"slope_after":-0.0899}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 2,144 PPP dollars in 1990 → 4,110 PPP dollars in 2025 (+92%). Peak: 6,825 PPP dollars in 2021; the latest value is 40% lower.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":2143.7919,"last":4109.9045,"peak":{"year":2021,"value":6825.0458}}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2007–2017: 5.33 → 3.40. Over the same years: births 34.2k → 31.6k; internet 1% → 24.2%; urban share 28% → 29.4%; GDP per person (PPP) 3,257 PPP dollars → 4,290 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2007,"to":2017,"start":5.333,"end":3.399,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2007,"to":2017,"start":34.21,"end":31.61},{"id":"internet_users","from":2007,"to":2017,"start":1,"end":24.2},{"id":"urban_population","from":2007,"to":2017,"start":28.0012,"end":29.3601},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2007,"to":2017,"start":3256.5698,"end":4290.0271}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 4.21 → 2.71; births 33.6k → 30.6k; internet 11% (2013); urban share 29.6% → 28.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 4,340 PPP dollars → 4,331 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.208,"end":2.707,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":33.56,"end":30.56},{"id":"internet_users","year":2013,"value":11},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":29.5837,"end":28.5955},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4340.2784,"end":4331.0779}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.39); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.25).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.389,"r_changes":0.251,"effective_pairs_changes":73,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2021, 19 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.96); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.21). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2021,"years":19,"r_levels":-0.964,"r_changes":-0.211,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.62); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.26).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.622,"r_changes":0.257,"effective_pairs_changes":9,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.85); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.19). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.846,"r_changes":-0.192,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 8 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 3; median gap −37%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.35,"actual":3.3472,"gap_pct":42.43},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.35,"actual":3.3472,"gap_pct":42.43},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.76,"actual":3.3472,"gap_pct":21.28},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.361,"actual":3.3472,"gap_pct":-37.56},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.486,"actual":3.3472,"gap_pct":-38.99},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.486,"actual":3.3472,"gap_pct":-38.99},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.31,"actual":3.3472,"gap_pct":-36.96},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.301,"actual":3.3472,"gap_pct":-36.86},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.327,"actual":3.3472,"gap_pct":-37.17},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.337,"actual":3.3472,"gap_pct":-37.28},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.959,"actual":2.707,"gap_pct":-8.52}],"actual_lower":8,"actual_higher":3,"median_gap_pct":-36.96,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected this level (2.71) already around 2018: reality is 5 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.707,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2018,"years":5,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.71, 2023) only around 2027: reality is 4 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.707,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2027,"years":4,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.92 (−29% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.72 (−37% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.22.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.707},"values":{"2050":1.918,"2100":1.718},"low_2100":1.218}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 8 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 3; median gap −28%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":23.306,"actual":31.558,"gap_pct":35.41},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":24.482,"actual":31.558,"gap_pct":28.9},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":28.128,"actual":31.558,"gap_pct":12.19},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":58.337,"actual":31.558,"gap_pct":-45.9},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":61.047,"actual":31.558,"gap_pct":-48.31},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":57.776,"actual":31.558,"gap_pct":-45.38},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":52.285,"actual":31.558,"gap_pct":-39.64},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":44.008,"actual":31.558,"gap_pct":-28.29},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":44.016,"actual":31.558,"gap_pct":-28.3},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":45.11,"actual":31.558,"gap_pct":-30.04},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":33.096,"actual":30.56,"gap_pct":-7.66}],"actual_lower":8,"actual_higher":3,"median_gap_pct":-28.3,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 27.8k (−9% vs 2023), 2100 — 19.3k (−37% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 7.21k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":30.56},"values":{"2050":27.75,"2100":19.33},"low_2100":7.209}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=TLS&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}