{"locations":[{"code":"TKM","name":"Turkmenistan","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/TKM/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.26 in 1950 → 2.69 in 2023 (−49%). Peak: 6.79 in 1963; the latest value is 60% lower. The trend broke around 1964 and 2002: +0.14 → −0.11 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.256,"last":2.69,"peak":{"year":1963,"value":6.788},"breaks":[{"year":1964,"slope_before":0.136,"slope_after":-0.114},{"year":2002,"slope_before":-0.114,"slope_after":0.00357}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 49.5k in 1950 → 160k in 2023 (×3.2). The trend broke around 1991 and 1999: +1.92k → −3.15k → +3.17k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":49.52,"last":160.1,"breaks":[{"year":1991,"slope_before":1.92,"slope_after":-3.15},{"year":1999,"slope_before":-3.15,"slope_after":3.17}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 18% in 2016 (+18 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2014. Fastest growth in 2011–2016: 5% → 18%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2016,"first":0,"last":17.9903,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2014,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2011,"to":2016,"start":5,"end":17.9903}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 46.6% in 1960 → 47.1% in 2025 (+0.6 pp). The trend broke around 1973 and 1990: +0.1 → −0.19 → +0.08 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":46.5537,"last":47.1054,"breaks":[{"year":1973,"slope_before":0.104,"slope_after":-0.186},{"year":1990,"slope_before":-0.186,"slope_after":0.0753}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 7,851 PPP dollars in 1990 → 19,314 PPP dollars in 2025 (+146%). Low: 4,067 PPP dollars in 1997; ×4.7 since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2005: −598 → +190 → +671 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":7850.7133,"last":19313.943,"trough":{"year":1997,"value":4066.6309},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":-598,"slope_after":190},{"year":2005,"slope_before":190,"slope_after":671}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1987–1997: 4.84 → 3.18. Over the same years: births 133k → 112k; urban share 45.4% → 45.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 4,067 PPP dollars (1997); no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":4.842,"end":3.18,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":133.4,"end":111.5},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":45.4136,"end":45.0828},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1997,"value":4066.6309}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.01 → 2.69; births 162k → 160k; internet 9.6% (2013); urban share 47% → 47.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 11,516 PPP dollars → 17,686 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.007,"end":2.69,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":162.4,"end":160.1},{"id":"internet_users","year":2013,"value":9.6},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":46.9788,"end":47.0679},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":11516.3741,"end":17685.8586}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.77); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.57). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.77,"r_changes":0.57,"effective_pairs_changes":9,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2016, 19 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.09); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.48).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2016,"years":19,"r_levels":0.092,"r_changes":-0.477,"effective_pairs_changes":7,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.39); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.25).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":0.389,"r_changes":0.247,"effective_pairs_changes":7,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.30); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.53). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.296,"r_changes":0.534,"effective_pairs_changes":16,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +34%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.9092,"gap_pct":38.53},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.9092,"gap_pct":38.53},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.182,"actual":2.9092,"gap_pct":33.33},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.104,"actual":2.9092,"gap_pct":38.27},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.104,"actual":2.9092,"gap_pct":38.27},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.104,"actual":2.9092,"gap_pct":38.27},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.17,"actual":2.9092,"gap_pct":34.06},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.212,"actual":2.9092,"gap_pct":31.52},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.216,"actual":2.9092,"gap_pct":31.28},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.785,"actual":2.9092,"gap_pct":4.46},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.58,"actual":2.69,"gap_pct":4.26}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":34.06,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection expected this level (2.69) already around 2020: reality is 3 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.69,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2020,"years":3,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.13 (−21% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.81 (−33% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.31.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.69},"values":{"2050":2.126,"2100":1.811},"low_2100":1.311}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +54%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":105.277,"actual":170.03,"gap_pct":61.51},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":114.44,"actual":170.03,"gap_pct":48.58},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":116.26,"actual":170.03,"gap_pct":46.25},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":107.949,"actual":170.03,"gap_pct":57.51},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":107.949,"actual":170.03,"gap_pct":57.51},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":107.064,"actual":170.03,"gap_pct":58.81},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":108.487,"actual":170.03,"gap_pct":56.73},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":110.615,"actual":170.03,"gap_pct":53.71},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":110.698,"actual":170.03,"gap_pct":53.6},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":139.062,"actual":170.03,"gap_pct":22.27},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":130.653,"actual":160.1,"gap_pct":22.54}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":53.71,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 147k (−8% vs 2023), 2100 — 99.8k (−38% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 37.8k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":160.1},"values":{"2050":146.8,"2100":99.8},"low_2100":37.8}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=TKM&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}