{"locations":[{"code":"TKL","name":"Tokelau","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/TKL/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.12 in 1950 → 2.61 in 2023 (−49%). Peak: 5.73 in 1960; the latest value is 54% lower. The trend broke around 1984 and 1990: −0.05 → +0.08 → −0.07 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.118,"last":2.612,"peak":{"year":1960,"value":5.728},"breaks":[{"year":1984,"slope_before":-0.0516,"slope_after":0.0778},{"year":1990,"slope_before":0.0778,"slope_after":-0.0658}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.06k in 1950 → 0.05k in 2023 (−18%). Peak: 0.08k in 1962; the latest value is 40% lower. The trend broke around 1963 and 1971: 0k → 0k → 0k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.057,"last":0.047,"peak":{"year":1962,"value":0.078},"breaks":[{"year":1963,"slope_before":0.00191,"slope_after":-0.00305},{"year":1971,"slope_before":-0.00305,"slope_after":-0.00042}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1967–1977: 5.37 → 4.22. Over the same years: births 0.07k → 0.05k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":5.369,"end":4.223,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":0.067,"end":0.048}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.04 → 2.61; births 0.03k → 0.05k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.042,"end":2.612,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.032,"end":0.047}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.91); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.58). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.911,"r_changes":0.577,"effective_pairs_changes":13,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −0.9%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.635,"actual":2.612,"gap_pct":-0.87}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-0.87,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.61, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.612,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.14 (−18% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.82 (−30% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.32.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.612},"values":{"2050":2.136,"2100":1.816},"low_2100":1.316}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in 1; median gap +34%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.035,"actual":0.047,"gap_pct":34.29}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":34.29,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.05k (+15% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.04k (−6% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.02k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.047},"values":{"2050":0.054,"2100":0.044},"low_2100":0.018}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=TKL&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}