{"locations":[{"code":"TJK","name":"Tajikistan","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/TJK/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.61 in 1950 → 3.07 in 2023 (−45%). Peak: 6.91 in 1968; the latest value is 56% lower. The trend broke around 1973 and 2003: +0.07 → −0.12 → −0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.609,"last":3.072,"peak":{"year":1968,"value":6.912},"breaks":[{"year":1973,"slope_before":0.0715,"slope_after":-0.121},{"year":2003,"slope_before":-0.121,"slope_after":-0.0165}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 64.4k in 1950 → 271k in 2023 (×4.2). The trend broke around 1993 and 2000: +3.92k → −5.23k → +4.68k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":64.35,"last":271.4,"breaks":[{"year":1993,"slope_before":3.92,"slope_after":-5.23},{"year":2000,"slope_before":-5.23,"slope_after":4.68}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 55.8% in 2024 (+56 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2009, above 50% since 2023. Fastest growth in 2019–2024: 22.7% → 55.8%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":55.7934,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2009,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2023,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2019,"to":2024,"start":22.6863,"end":55.7934}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 33.4% in 1960 → 26.2% in 2025 (−7.2 pp). Peak: 37.1% in 1970; the latest value is 30% lower. The trend broke around 1970 and 2002: +0.42 → −0.35 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":33.3952,"last":26.1648,"peak":{"year":1970,"value":37.1147},"breaks":[{"year":1970,"slope_before":0.418,"slope_after":-0.354},{"year":2002,"slope_before":-0.354,"slope_after":-0.0146}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 4,173 PPP dollars in 1990 → 5,062 PPP dollars in 2025 (+21%). Low: 1,176 PPP dollars in 1996; ×4.3 since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2019: −507 → +112 → +247 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":4173.0461,"last":5061.847,"trough":{"year":1996,"value":1175.7941},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":-507,"slope_after":112},{"year":2019,"slope_before":112,"slope_after":247}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1990–2000: 5.46 → 3.49. Over the same years: births 233k → 183k; internet 0% → 0%; urban share 31.9% → 26.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 4,173 PPP dollars → 1,365 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1990,"to":2000,"start":5.456,"end":3.49,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1990,"to":2000,"start":232.6,"end":182.9},{"id":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2000,"start":0,"end":0.0486},{"id":"urban_population","from":1990,"to":2000,"start":31.8835,"end":26.5355},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2000,"start":4173.0461,"end":1365.2333}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.43 → 3.07; births 264k → 271k; internet 16% → 54.4%; urban share 26.5% → 26.2%; GDP per person (PPP) 2,828 PPP dollars → 4,472 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.433,"end":3.072,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":264.1,"end":271.4},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":16,"end":54.4155},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":26.4883,"end":26.189},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2828.3854,"end":4472.3241}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.77); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.74). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.765,"r_changes":0.743,"effective_pairs_changes":40,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 26 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.45); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.04).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":26,"r_levels":-0.455,"r_changes":-0.043,"effective_pairs_changes":24,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.99); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.59). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":0.993,"r_changes":0.592,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.12); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.24). Changes line up best with a 4 years shift: \"GDP per person (PPP)\" moves first, then \"Fertility (TFR)\" (r = 0.70).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.12,"r_changes":0.242,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":{"years":-4,"r":0.7,"leader":"gdp_per_capita_ppp"}}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +18%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.33,"actual":3.3168,"gap_pct":42.35},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.236,"actual":3.3168,"gap_pct":48.34},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.174,"actual":3.3168,"gap_pct":52.57},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.684,"actual":3.3168,"gap_pct":23.58},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.684,"actual":3.3168,"gap_pct":23.58},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.804,"actual":3.3168,"gap_pct":18.29},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.92,"actual":3.3168,"gap_pct":13.59},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.599,"actual":3.3168,"gap_pct":-7.84},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.318,"actual":3.3168,"gap_pct":-0.04},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.28,"actual":3.3168,"gap_pct":1.12},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.096,"actual":3.072,"gap_pct":-0.78}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":8,"median_gap_pct":18.29,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection expected this level (3.07) already around 2011: reality is 12 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.072,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2011,"years":12,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (3.07, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.072,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.35 (−23% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.86 (−39% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.36.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.072},"values":{"2050":2.352,"2100":1.86},"low_2100":1.36}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +35%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":160.331,"actual":274.48,"gap_pct":71.2},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":148.851,"actual":274.48,"gap_pct":84.4},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":147.937,"actual":274.48,"gap_pct":85.54},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":195.774,"actual":274.48,"gap_pct":40.2},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":196.31,"actual":274.48,"gap_pct":39.82},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":205.957,"actual":274.48,"gap_pct":33.27},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":202.956,"actual":274.48,"gap_pct":35.24},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":276.158,"actual":274.48,"gap_pct":-0.61},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":256.607,"actual":274.48,"gap_pct":6.97},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":251.507,"actual":274.48,"gap_pct":9.13},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":256.589,"actual":271.4,"gap_pct":5.77}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":35.24,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection did not expect today's level (271k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":271.4,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 282k (+4% vs 2023), 2100 — 226k (−17% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 90.2k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":271.4},"values":{"2050":282.4,"2100":225.6},"low_2100":90.24}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=TJK&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}