{"locations":[{"code":"THA","name":"Thailand","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/THA/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.36 in 1950 → 1.21 in 2023 (−81%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1990, below 1.5 since 2014. The trend broke around 1966 and 1986: −0.01 → −0.21 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.359,"last":1.212,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1990,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2014,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":-0.0104,"slope_after":-0.205},{"year":1986,"slope_before":-0.205,"slope_after":-0.0255}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 902k in 1950 → 462k in 2024 (−49%). Peak: 1.35M in 1968; the latest value is 66% lower. The trend broke around 1967 and 2013: +26.2k → −12.2k → −24.4k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2024,"first":902.3,"last":462.24,"peak":{"year":1968,"value":1351},"breaks":[{"year":1967,"slope_before":26.2,"slope_after":-12.2},{"year":2013,"slope_before":-12.2,"slope_after":-24.4}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 90.9% in 2024 (+91 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2004, above 50% since 2017, above 90% since 2024. Fastest growth in 2015–2020: 39.3% → 77.8%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":90.8672,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2004,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2017,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2024,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2015,"to":2020,"start":39.3161,"end":77.8437}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 11.8% in 1960 → 62.8% in 2025 (+51 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2018. The trend broke around 1990: change sped up (+0.26 → +1.2 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":11.8259,"last":62.7993,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2018,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1990,"slope_before":0.255,"slope_after":1.2}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 8,703 PPP dollars in 1990 → 22,432 PPP dollars in 2025 (×2.6). The trend broke around 2001 and 2018: +256 → +470 → +204 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":8702.8996,"last":22431.7518,"breaks":[{"year":2001,"slope_before":256,"slope_after":470},{"year":2018,"slope_before":470,"slope_after":204}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1968–1978: 5.93 → 3.62. Over the same years: births 1.35M → 1.2M; urban share 12.9% → 16.5%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":5.928,"end":3.617,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":1351,"end":1202},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":12.9066,"end":16.4947},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.53 → 1.21; births 794k → 591k; internet 28.9% → 89.5%; urban share 45.8% → 60.9%; GDP per person (PPP) 18,244 PPP dollars → 21,245 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.526,"end":1.212,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":794,"end":591.2},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":28.94,"end":89.5353},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":45.8321,"end":60.9342},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":18244.4072,"end":21245.2707}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.67); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.85). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.67,"r_changes":0.849,"effective_pairs_changes":11,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = −0.42).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.924,"r_changes":-0.424,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.75); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.09). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.755,"r_changes":0.095,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.97); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.07). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.966,"r_changes":0.068,"effective_pairs_changes":27,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −27%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":1.3452,"gap_pct":-29.2},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.86,"actual":1.3452,"gap_pct":-27.68},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.3452,"gap_pct":-27.29},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.3452,"gap_pct":-27.29},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.3452,"gap_pct":-27.29},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.3452,"gap_pct":-27.29},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.455,"actual":1.3452,"gap_pct":-7.55},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.364,"actual":1.3452,"gap_pct":-1.38},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.458,"actual":1.3452,"gap_pct":-7.74},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.458,"actual":1.3452,"gap_pct":-7.74},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.316,"actual":1.212,"gap_pct":-7.9}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-27.29,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.29 (+6% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.44 (+19% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.94.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.212},"values":{"2050":1.287,"2100":1.437},"low_2100":0.937}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 2; median gap −25%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":935.205,"actual":683.72,"gap_pct":-26.89},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1024.736,"actual":683.72,"gap_pct":-33.28},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":979.893,"actual":683.72,"gap_pct":-30.23},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":950.061,"actual":683.72,"gap_pct":-28.03},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":854.886,"actual":683.72,"gap_pct":-20.02},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":943.008,"actual":683.72,"gap_pct":-27.5},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":743.81,"actual":683.72,"gap_pct":-8.08},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":635.306,"actual":683.72,"gap_pct":7.62},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":675.122,"actual":683.72,"gap_pct":1.27},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":688.645,"actual":683.72,"gap_pct":-0.72},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2024,"period":1,"expected":614.663,"actual":462.24,"gap_pct":-24.8}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":2,"median_gap_pct":-24.8,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected today's level (462k, 2024) only around 2055: reality is 31 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":462.24,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2055,"years":31,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (462k, 2024) only around 2056: reality is 32 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":462.24,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2056,"years":32,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2024: 462k, 21% below the UN 2024 medium variant (582k) and below its 95% interval.","data":{"year":2024,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":581.6,"actual_births_k":462.24,"gap_pct":-20.5,"un_lower95_births_k":462.3,"below_lower95":true,"source":"UN Statistics Division, Demographic Yearbook (2024 edition) Table 9 'Live births and crude birth rates', data from Thai national sources","source_url":"https://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic-social/products/dyb/documents/DYB2024/table09.xls"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 461k (0% vs 2024), 2100 — 328k (−29% vs 2024); low variant for 2100: 113k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2024,"value":462.24},"values":{"2050":461.4,"2100":327.9},"low_2100":113.2}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=THA&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}