{"locations":[{"code":"TGO","name":"Togo","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/TGO/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.60 in 1950 → 4.19 in 2023 (−36%). Peak: 7.09 in 1974; the latest value is 41% lower. The trend broke around 1977 and 1998: +0.02 → −0.09 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.598,"last":4.192,"peak":{"year":1974,"value":7.09},"breaks":[{"year":1977,"slope_before":0.0201,"slope_after":-0.0856},{"year":1998,"slope_before":-0.0856,"slope_after":-0.0407}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 67.2k in 1950 → 290k in 2023 (×4.3). The trend broke around 1999 and 2010: +2.63k → +6k → +2.89k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":67.17,"last":289.8,"breaks":[{"year":1999,"slope_before":2.63,"slope_after":6},{"year":2010,"slope_before":6,"slope_after":2.89}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 39.5% in 2024 (+39 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2016. Fastest growth in 2017–2022: 12.4% → 35.6%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":39.4832,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2016,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2017,"to":2022,"start":12.3602,"end":35.6075}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 10.6% in 1960 → 44.4% in 2025 (+34 pp). The trend broke around 1969: change slowed down (+1.2 → +0.33 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":10.6478,"last":44.395,"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":1.18,"slope_after":0.333}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 2,409 PPP dollars in 1990 → 3,486 PPP dollars in 2025 (+45%). Low: 1,863 PPP dollars in 1993; +87% since then. The trend broke around 2002 and 2008: +16 → −59 → +78 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":2409.1482,"last":3485.9818,"trough":{"year":1993,"value":1863.0373},"breaks":[{"year":2002,"slope_before":15.9,"slope_after":-58.9},{"year":2008,"slope_before":-58.9,"slope_after":78.3}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1987–1997: 6.30 → 5.36. Over the same years: births 157k → 181k; internet 0.2% (1997); urban share 27.4% → 31.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 2,519 PPP dollars (1997).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":6.304,"end":5.363,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":157.2,"end":180.8},{"id":"internet_users","year":1997,"value":0.211},{"id":"urban_population","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":27.4131,"end":31.7503},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1997,"value":2519.0004}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 4.75 → 4.19; births 258k → 290k; internet 4.5% → 37.6%; urban share 38.9% → 43.2%; GDP per person (PPP) 2,416 PPP dollars → 3,216 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.754,"end":4.192,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":258,"end":289.8},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.5,"end":37.5702},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":38.8517,"end":43.2497},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2416.3781,"end":3215.823}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.93); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.46).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.933,"r_changes":0.455,"effective_pairs_changes":38,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.78); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.21). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.783,"r_changes":-0.215,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.93); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.39). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.93,"r_changes":0.389,"effective_pairs_changes":6,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.75); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.34). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.749,"r_changes":-0.34,"effective_pairs_changes":31,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +15%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.945,"actual":4.5394,"gap_pct":15.07},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.06,"actual":4.5394,"gap_pct":11.81},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.689,"actual":4.5394,"gap_pct":23.05},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.688,"actual":4.5394,"gap_pct":23.09},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.688,"actual":4.5394,"gap_pct":23.09},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.445,"actual":4.5394,"gap_pct":31.77},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.483,"actual":4.5394,"gap_pct":30.33},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.326,"actual":4.5394,"gap_pct":4.93},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.346,"actual":4.5394,"gap_pct":4.45},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.351,"actual":4.5394,"gap_pct":4.33},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4.136,"actual":4.192,"gap_pct":1.35}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":15.07,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (4.19) already around 2015: reality is 8 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.192,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2015,"years":8,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected this level (4.19) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.192,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.04 (−27% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.18 (−48% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.68.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4.192},"values":{"2050":3.042,"2100":2.177},"low_2100":1.677}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +8.4%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":234.167,"actual":274.37,"gap_pct":17.17},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":226.412,"actual":274.37,"gap_pct":21.18},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":202.608,"actual":274.37,"gap_pct":35.42},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":253.226,"actual":274.37,"gap_pct":8.35},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":258.033,"actual":274.37,"gap_pct":6.33},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":226.831,"actual":274.37,"gap_pct":20.96},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":200.969,"actual":274.37,"gap_pct":36.52},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":257.799,"actual":274.37,"gap_pct":6.43},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":264.111,"actual":274.37,"gap_pct":3.88},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":263.11,"actual":274.37,"gap_pct":4.28},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":281.959,"actual":289.8,"gap_pct":2.78}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":8.35,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected today's level (290k, 2023) only around 2031: reality is 8 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":289.8,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2031,"years":8,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (290k, 2023) only around 2026: reality is 3 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":289.8,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2026,"years":3,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 376k (+30% vs 2023), 2100 — 411k (+42% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 207k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":289.8},"values":{"2050":375.6,"2100":410.5},"low_2100":206.5}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=TGO&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}