{"locations":[{"code":"TCD","name":"Chad","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/TCD/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.06 in 1950 → 6.12 in 2023 (+1%). Peak: 7.34 in 1993; the latest value is 17% lower. The trend broke around 1994 and 2010: +0.03 → −0.02 → −0.07 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.062,"last":6.12,"peak":{"year":1993,"value":7.337},"breaks":[{"year":1994,"slope_before":0.0312,"slope_after":-0.0198},{"year":2010,"slope_before":-0.0198,"slope_after":-0.0691}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 119k in 1950 → 819k in 2023 (×6.9). The trend broke around 1982: change sped up (+3.56k → +11.7k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":118.7,"last":819.1,"breaks":[{"year":1982,"slope_before":3.56,"slope_after":11.7}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 12.6% in 2024 (+13 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2022. Fastest growth in 2018–2023: 7% → 12%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":12.6269,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2022,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2018,"to":2023,"start":6.9563,"end":12.0359}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 6.6% in 1960 → 27.6% in 2025 (+21 pp). The trend broke around 1983 and 2015: +0.66 → +0.05 → +0.5 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":6.5933,"last":27.5659,"breaks":[{"year":1983,"slope_before":0.661,"slope_after":0.0545},{"year":2015,"slope_before":0.0545,"slope_after":0.497}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 1,711 PPP dollars in 1990 → 2,481 PPP dollars in 2025 (+45%). Peak: 2,886 PPP dollars in 2012; the latest value is 14% lower. The trend broke around 2000 and 2006: −32 → +214 → −14 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":1711.3699,"last":2480.5096,"peak":{"year":2012,"value":2886.2747},"breaks":[{"year":2000,"slope_before":-32.1,"slope_after":214},{"year":2006,"slope_before":214,"slope_after":-14}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest rise of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1963–1973: 6.30 → 6.87. Over the same years: births 148k → 197k; urban share 7.6% → 13.3%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":6.301,"end":6.869,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":148,"end":196.6},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":7.6006,"end":13.3399},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 6.84 → 6.12; births 649k → 819k; internet 2.5% → 12%; urban share 22.3% → 26.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 2,864 PPP dollars → 2,434 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":6.839,"end":6.12,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":649.3,"end":819.1},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.5,"end":12.0359},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":22.2976,"end":26.3305},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2864.113,"end":2433.5333}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.23); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.21).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.226,"r_changes":0.213,"effective_pairs_changes":69,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 28 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.98); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.17). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year. Changes line up best with a 6 years shift: \"Internet\" moves first, then \"Fertility (TFR)\" (r = 0.67).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":28,"r_levels":-0.984,"r_changes":-0.17,"effective_pairs_changes":26,"changes_significant":false,"lag":{"years":-6,"r":0.675,"leader":"internet_users"}}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.47); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.20).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":0.47,"r_changes":-0.204,"effective_pairs_changes":38,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.62); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.03).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.624,"r_changes":0.032,"effective_pairs_changes":29,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +20%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.955,"actual":6.5125,"gap_pct":64.66},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.39,"actual":6.5125,"gap_pct":20.83},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.417,"actual":6.5125,"gap_pct":20.22},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.087,"actual":6.5125,"gap_pct":6.99},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.32,"actual":6.5125,"gap_pct":22.42},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.32,"actual":6.5125,"gap_pct":22.42},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.248,"actual":6.5125,"gap_pct":24.09},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.772,"actual":6.5125,"gap_pct":12.83},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.794,"actual":6.5125,"gap_pct":12.4},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.797,"actual":6.5125,"gap_pct":12.34},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":6.12,"actual":6.12,"gap_pct":0}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":20.22,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected this level (6.12) already around 2010: reality is 13 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":6.12,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2010,"years":13,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected this level (6.12) already around 2014: reality is 9 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":6.12,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2014,"years":9,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.85 (−37% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.27 (−63% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.77.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":6.12},"values":{"2050":3.849,"2100":2.269},"low_2100":1.769}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +22%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":405.653,"actual":712.83,"gap_pct":75.72},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":548.553,"actual":712.83,"gap_pct":29.95},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":538.728,"actual":712.83,"gap_pct":32.32},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":631.688,"actual":712.83,"gap_pct":12.85},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":585.722,"actual":712.83,"gap_pct":21.7},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":576.44,"actual":712.83,"gap_pct":23.66},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":554.116,"actual":712.83,"gap_pct":28.64},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":637.944,"actual":712.83,"gap_pct":11.74},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":664.875,"actual":712.83,"gap_pct":7.21},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":644.511,"actual":712.83,"gap_pct":10.6},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":779.346,"actual":819.1,"gap_pct":5.1}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":21.7,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection did not expect today's level (819k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":819.1,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (819k, 2023) only around 2026: reality is 3 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":819.1,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2026,"years":3,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.15M (+41% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.14M (+39% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 633k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":819.1},"values":{"2050":1154,"2100":1135},"low_2100":633.1}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=TCD&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}