{"locations":[{"code":"TCA","name":"Turks and Caicos Islands","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/TCA/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.94 in 1950 → 1.46 in 2023 (−75%). Peak: 6.17 in 1955; the latest value is 76% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 2006, below 1.5 since 2022. The trend broke around 1959 and 2001: +0.02 → −0.09 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.939,"last":1.463,"peak":{"year":1955,"value":6.171},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2006,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2022,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1959,"slope_before":0.0199,"slope_after":-0.0932},{"year":2001,"slope_before":-0.0932,"slope_after":-0.0375}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.25k in 1950 → 0.5k in 2023 (+96%). Low: 0.17k in 1971; ×3 since then. The trend broke around 1973 and 1999: 0k → +0.01k → 0k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.253,"last":0.496,"trough":{"year":1971,"value":0.165},"breaks":[{"year":1973,"slope_before":-0.00487,"slope_after":0.00942},{"year":1999,"slope_before":0.00942,"slope_after":0.00432}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990; no earlier data in this period.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":1990,"first":0,"last":0}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 47.6% in 1960 → 94.4% in 2025 (+47 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1968, above 75% since 1991. The trend broke around 1980 and 1995: +0.37 → +1.9 → +0.44 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":47.6224,"last":94.3959,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1968,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":1991,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1980,"slope_before":0.373,"slope_after":1.86},{"year":1995,"slope_before":1.86,"slope_after":0.441}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 21,879 PPP dollars in 2007 → 33,391 PPP dollars in 2024 (+53%). Low: 15,462 PPP dollars in 2013; +116% since then.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2007,"to":2024,"first":21878.8206,"last":33390.5267,"trough":{"year":2013,"value":15461.8735}}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1982–1992: 4.19 → 2.94. Over the same years: births 0.25k → 0.33k; urban share 57.6% → 76.9%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1982,"to":1992,"start":4.192,"end":2.939,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1982,"to":1992,"start":0.245,"end":0.33},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1982,"to":1992,"start":57.5995,"end":76.857},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.75 → 1.46; births 0.44k → 0.5k; urban share 91.3% → 93.9%; GDP per person (PPP) 15,462 PPP dollars → 31,839 PPP dollars; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.752,"end":1.463,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.438,"end":0.496},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":91.3169,"end":93.9325},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":15461.8735,"end":31839.3705}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.90); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.02). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.901,"r_changes":-0.023,"effective_pairs_changes":13,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.99); year-to-year changes are related too (r = −0.60). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.99,"r_changes":-0.595,"effective_pairs_changes":9,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (2007–2023, 17 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.52); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.54). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2007,"to":2023,"years":17,"r_levels":-0.518,"r_changes":0.54,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −11%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.646,"actual":1.463,"gap_pct":-11.12}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-11.12,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.46 (0% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.53 (+4% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.03.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.463},"values":{"2050":1.464,"2100":1.527},"low_2100":1.027}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −10%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.553,"actual":0.496,"gap_pct":-10.31}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-10.31,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.43k (−14% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.29k (−42% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.1k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.496},"values":{"2050":0.428,"2100":0.287},"low_2100":0.1}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=TCA&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}