{"locations":[{"code":"SYC","name":"Seychelles","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/SYC/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 4.81 in 1950 → 2.13 in 2023 (−56%). Peak: 6.13 in 1966; the latest value is 65% lower. The trend broke around 1966 and 1990: +0.07 → −0.15 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":4.81,"last":2.133,"peak":{"year":1966,"value":6.126},"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":0.0737,"slope_after":-0.148},{"year":1990,"slope_before":-0.148,"slope_after":-0.00555}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 1.22k in 1950 → 1.74k in 2023 (+43%). The trend broke around 1965 and 2002: +0.04k → −0.01k → +0.01k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":1.219,"last":1.744,"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.0387,"slope_after":-0.0068},{"year":2002,"slope_before":-0.0068,"slope_after":0.0138}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 87.8% in 2024 (+88 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2001, above 50% since 2013. Fastest growth in 2003–2008: 14.6% → 40.4%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":87.818,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2001,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2013,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2003,"to":2008,"start":14.5925,"end":40.44}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 27.5% in 1960 → 45.5% in 2025 (+18 pp). The trend broke around 1979 and 2007: +1.4 → −0.33 → +0.17 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":27.51,"last":45.4828,"breaks":[{"year":1979,"slope_before":1.36,"slope_after":-0.33},{"year":2007,"slope_before":-0.33,"slope_after":0.173}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 15,479 PPP dollars in 1990 → 30,639 PPP dollars in 2025 (+98%). Peak: 34,346 PPP dollars in 2019; the latest value is 11% lower. The trend broke around 2012 and 2018: +337 → +1,509 → −575 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":15478.8475,"last":30638.7217,"peak":{"year":2019,"value":34346.0709},"breaks":[{"year":2012,"slope_before":337,"slope_after":1510},{"year":2018,"slope_before":1510,"slope_after":-575}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1967–1977: 5.90 → 3.75. Over the same years: births 1.8k → 1.53k; urban share 34.2% → 49.4%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":5.895,"end":3.754,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":1.801,"end":1.534},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":34.1779,"end":49.41},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.18 → 2.13; births 1.63k → 1.74k; internet 50.4% → 86%; urban share 42.8% → 45.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 24,771 PPP dollars → 28,714 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.182,"end":2.133,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.626,"end":1.744},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":50.4,"end":86.0013},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":42.8151,"end":45.0971},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":24770.6515,"end":28713.6672}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.07); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.90). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.067,"r_changes":0.896,"effective_pairs_changes":55,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 28 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.21); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.12).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":28,"r_levels":0.213,"r_changes":-0.125,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.60); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.07).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.597,"r_changes":-0.072,"effective_pairs_changes":58,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.22); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.18).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.222,"r_changes":0.183,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 4 revisions (2012–2022) and above in 3; median gap +1.9%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.085,"actual":2.2766,"gap_pct":9.19},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.214,"actual":2.2766,"gap_pct":2.83},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.257,"actual":2.2766,"gap_pct":0.87},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.289,"actual":2.133,"gap_pct":-6.82}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":3,"median_gap_pct":1.85,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected this level (2.13) already around 2015: reality is 8 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.133,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2015,"years":8,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.13, 2023) only around 2030: reality is 7 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.133,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2030,"years":7,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.83 (−14% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.72 (−19% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.22.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.133},"values":{"2050":1.832,"2100":1.724},"low_2100":1.224}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 4 revisions (2012–2022) and above in 4; median gap +19%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.408,"actual":1.7854,"gap_pct":26.8},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.536,"actual":1.7854,"gap_pct":16.24},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.464,"actual":1.7854,"gap_pct":21.95},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.586,"actual":1.744,"gap_pct":9.96}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":19.09,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.53k (−12% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.09k (−38% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.4k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.744},"values":{"2050":1.528,"2100":1.086},"low_2100":0.396}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=SYC&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}