{"locations":[{"code":"SXM","name":"Sint Maarten (Dutch)","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/SXM/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.26 in 1950 → 1.45 in 2023 (−72%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1999, below 1.5 since 2019. The trend broke around 1959 and 1982: −0.05 → −0.11 → −0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.256,"last":1.447,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1999,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2019,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1959,"slope_before":-0.0463,"slope_after":-0.114},{"year":1982,"slope_before":-0.114,"slope_after":-0.0174}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.06k in 1950 → 0.39k in 2023 (×7). Peak: 0.69k in 1995; the latest value is 43% lower. The trend broke around 1972 and 1992: +0.01k → +0.02k → −0.01k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.056,"last":0.39,"peak":{"year":1995,"value":0.688},"breaks":[{"year":1972,"slope_before":0.0063,"slope_after":0.0229},{"year":1992,"slope_before":0.0229,"slope_after":-0.00881}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 100% in 1960 → 100% in 2025 (0 pp).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":100,"last":100}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 50,981 PPP dollars in 2009 → 48,273 PPP dollars in 2025 (−5%). Peak: 53,786 PPP dollars in 2011; the latest value is 10% lower.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2009,"to":2025,"first":50980.9401,"last":48273.4255,"peak":{"year":2011,"value":53786.2462}}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1963–1973: 4.47 → 3.11. Over the same years: births 0.1k → 0.21k; urban share 100% → 100%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":4.467,"end":3.111,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":0.1,"end":0.211},{"id":"urban_population","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":100,"end":100},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.89 → 1.45; births 0.49k → 0.39k; urban share 100% → 100%; GDP per person (PPP) 52,801 PPP dollars → 46,571 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.894,"end":1.447,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.486,"end":0.39},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":100,"end":100},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":52801.4031,"end":46571.0881}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.87); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.39).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.874,"r_changes":0.393,"effective_pairs_changes":26,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (2009–2023, 15 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.88); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.35). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2009,"to":2023,"years":15,"r_levels":0.876,"r_changes":0.352,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −7.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.565,"actual":1.447,"gap_pct":-7.54}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-7.54,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.46 (+1% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.53 (+6% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.03.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.447},"values":{"2050":1.455,"2100":1.528},"low_2100":1.028}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −0.8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.393,"actual":0.39,"gap_pct":-0.76}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-0.76,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected this level (0.39k) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":0.39,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.42k (+7% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.32k (−18% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.12k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.39},"values":{"2050":0.417,"2100":0.321},"low_2100":0.116}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=SXM&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}