{"locations":[{"code":"SWZ","name":"Eswatini","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/SWZ/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.73 in 1950 → 2.75 in 2023 (−59%). The trend broke around 1982 and 1997: 0 → −0.17 → −0.06 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.732,"last":2.752,"breaks":[{"year":1982,"slope_before":-0.00285,"slope_after":-0.166},{"year":1997,"slope_before":-0.166,"slope_after":-0.0569}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 13.7k in 1950 → 29.6k in 2023 (+117%). Peak: 36.8k in 1993; the latest value is 20% lower. The trend broke around 1964 and 1990: +0.31k → +0.71k → −0.16k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":13.67,"last":29.62,"peak":{"year":1993,"value":36.82},"breaks":[{"year":1964,"slope_before":0.306,"slope_after":0.71},{"year":1990,"slope_before":0.71,"slope_after":-0.16}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 63.4% in 2024 (+63 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2010, above 50% since 2021. Fastest growth in 2016–2021: 28.6% → 54%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":63.4031,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2010,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2021,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2016,"to":2021,"start":28.57,"end":53.9953}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 4.1% in 1960 → 26.7% in 2025 (+23 pp). The trend broke around 1986 and 2012: +0.78 → −0.03 → +0.32 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":4.0561,"last":26.7214,"breaks":[{"year":1986,"slope_before":0.78,"slope_after":-0.0337},{"year":2012,"slope_before":-0.0337,"slope_after":0.321}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 5,448 PPP dollars in 1990 → 10,707 PPP dollars in 2025 (+97%). The trend broke around 2002 and 2008: +88 → +295 → +152 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":5447.739,"last":10706.7778,"breaks":[{"year":2002,"slope_before":88.4,"slope_after":295},{"year":2008,"slope_before":295,"slope_after":152}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1985–1995: 6.28 → 4.52. Over the same years: births 33.1k → 33k; internet 0% (1995); urban share 22.5% → 23.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 5,694 PPP dollars (1995).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":6.282,"end":4.523,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":33.1,"end":32.97},{"id":"internet_users","year":1995,"value":0.001},{"id":"urban_population","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":22.5188,"end":23.054},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1995,"value":5693.822}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.24 → 2.75; births 33.5k → 29.6k; internet 24.7% → 61.3%; urban share 22.8% → 25.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 8,951 PPP dollars → 10,182 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.237,"end":2.752,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":33.5,"end":29.62},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":24.7,"end":61.3333},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":22.8122,"end":25.8082},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":8951.0575,"end":10181.5041}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.70); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.07).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.699,"r_changes":0.069,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.83); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.04). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.832,"r_changes":0.044,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.76); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.54). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.759,"r_changes":0.544,"effective_pairs_changes":5,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.11). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.946,"r_changes":0.113,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −0.6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.1,"actual":2.9974,"gap_pct":-3.31},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.36,"actual":2.9974,"gap_pct":-10.79},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.019,"actual":2.9974,"gap_pct":-0.72},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.86,"actual":2.9974,"gap_pct":4.8},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.841,"actual":2.9974,"gap_pct":5.51},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.912,"actual":2.9974,"gap_pct":2.93},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.861,"actual":2.9974,"gap_pct":4.77},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.06,"actual":2.9974,"gap_pct":-2.05},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.062,"actual":2.9974,"gap_pct":-2.11},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.014,"actual":2.9974,"gap_pct":-0.55},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.75,"actual":2.752,"gap_pct":0.07}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-0.55,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (2.75) already around 2021: reality is 2 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.752,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2021,"years":2,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected this level (2.75) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.752,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.08 (−24% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.78 (−35% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.28.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.752},"values":{"2050":2.081,"2100":1.781},"low_2100":1.281}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −11%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":40.654,"actual":31.135,"gap_pct":-23.41},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":30.836,"actual":31.135,"gap_pct":0.97},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":30.422,"actual":31.135,"gap_pct":2.34},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":27.08,"actual":31.135,"gap_pct":14.97},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":31.496,"actual":31.135,"gap_pct":-1.15},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":36.344,"actual":31.135,"gap_pct":-14.33},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":34.998,"actual":31.135,"gap_pct":-11.04},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":37.344,"actual":31.135,"gap_pct":-16.63},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":37.574,"actual":31.135,"gap_pct":-17.14},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":38.919,"actual":31.135,"gap_pct":-20},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":28.356,"actual":29.62,"gap_pct":4.46}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-11.04,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection did not expect today's level (29.6k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2047).","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":29.62,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"years":null,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection expected today's level (29.6k, 2023) only around 2042: reality is 19 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":29.62,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2042,"years":19,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 24.9k (−16% vs 2023), 2100 — 14.9k (−50% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 4.97k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":29.62},"values":{"2050":24.85,"2100":14.89},"low_2100":4.972}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=SWZ&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}