{"locations":[{"code":"SVK","name":"Slovakia","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/SVK/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 3.61 in 1950 → 1.56 in 2023 (−57%). Low: 1.19 in 2002; +32% since then. Threshold: below 2.1 since 1989. The trend broke around 1991 and 2001: −0.04 → −0.07 → +0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":3.607,"last":1.56,"trough":{"year":2002,"value":1.185},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1989,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1991,"slope_before":-0.0371,"slope_after":-0.0744},{"year":2001,"slope_before":-0.0744,"slope_after":0.0204}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 100k in 1950 → 52.3k in 2023 (−48%). The trend broke around 1985 and 1999: −0.07k → −2.58k → +0.12k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":100.3,"last":52.27,"breaks":[{"year":1985,"slope_before":-0.0747,"slope_after":-2.58},{"year":1999,"slope_before":-2.58,"slope_after":0.123}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 89.8% in 2024 (+90 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2001, above 50% since 2004. Fastest growth in 1999–2004: 5.4% → 52.9%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":89.8251,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2001,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2004,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1999,"to":2004,"start":5.44,"end":52.89}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 33.4% in 1960 → 53.2% in 2025 (+20 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1978. The trend broke around 1983 and 1990: +0.96 → +0.44 → −0.13 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":33.3775,"last":53.194,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1978,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1983,"slope_before":0.956,"slope_after":0.439},{"year":1990,"slope_before":0.439,"slope_after":-0.126}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 17,521 PPP dollars in 1990 → 40,690 PPP dollars in 2025 (+132%). Low: 13,946 PPP dollars in 1992; ×2.9 since then. The trend broke around 2002 and 2008: +385 → +1,520 → +741 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":17521.0251,"last":40689.818,"trough":{"year":1992,"value":13946.1631},"breaks":[{"year":2002,"slope_before":385,"slope_after":1520},{"year":2008,"slope_before":1520,"slope_after":741}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1957–1967: 3.35 → 2.49. Over the same years: births 97.4k → 76.8k; urban share 38.3% (1967); no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1957,"to":1967,"start":3.346,"end":2.487,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1957,"to":1967,"start":97.39,"end":76.81},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","year":1967,"value":38.2902},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.40 → 1.56; births 57.3k → 52.3k; internet 77.9% → 87.2%; urban share 54.1% → 53.2%; GDP per person (PPP) 31,078 PPP dollars → 39,502 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.397,"end":1.56,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":57.25,"end":52.27},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":77.8826,"end":87.2131},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":54.1384,"end":53.1908},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":31078.1848,"end":39501.9474}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.90); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.93). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.901,"r_changes":0.932,"effective_pairs_changes":45,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 32 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.09); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.29).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":32,"r_levels":-0.093,"r_changes":0.295,"effective_pairs_changes":29,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.79); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.31). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.794,"r_changes":0.311,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.14); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.03).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.138,"r_changes":-0.03,"effective_pairs_changes":30,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 2 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 9; median gap +4.4%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.56,"actual":1.5214,"gap_pct":-2.47},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.37,"actual":1.5214,"gap_pct":11.05},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.5,"actual":1.5214,"gap_pct":1.43},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.292,"actual":1.5214,"gap_pct":17.76},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.328,"actual":1.5214,"gap_pct":14.56},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.395,"actual":1.5214,"gap_pct":9.06},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.466,"actual":1.5214,"gap_pct":3.78},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.457,"actual":1.5214,"gap_pct":4.42},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.438,"actual":1.5214,"gap_pct":5.8},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.462,"actual":1.5214,"gap_pct":4.06},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.574,"actual":1.56,"gap_pct":-0.89}],"actual_lower":2,"actual_higher":9,"median_gap_pct":4.42,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected today's level (1.56, 2023) only around 2034: reality is 11 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.56,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2034,"years":11,"projection_end":2047}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection expected today's level (1.56, 2023) only around 2027: reality is 4 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.56,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2027,"years":4,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.60 (+3% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.63 (+4% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.13.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.56},"values":{"2050":1.603,"2100":1.628},"low_2100":1.128}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 2 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 9; median gap +5.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":54.132,"actual":57.223,"gap_pct":5.71},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":49.807,"actual":57.223,"gap_pct":14.89},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":54.456,"actual":57.223,"gap_pct":5.08},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":47.826,"actual":57.223,"gap_pct":19.65},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":49.484,"actual":57.223,"gap_pct":15.64},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":53.564,"actual":57.223,"gap_pct":6.83},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":59.478,"actual":57.223,"gap_pct":-3.79},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":57.192,"actual":57.223,"gap_pct":0.05},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":56.465,"actual":57.223,"gap_pct":1.34},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":56.315,"actual":57.223,"gap_pct":1.61},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":62.451,"actual":52.27,"gap_pct":-16.3}],"actual_lower":2,"actual_higher":9,"median_gap_pct":5.08,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected this level (52.3k) already around 2013: reality is 10 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":52.27,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2013,"years":10,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (52.3k, 2023) only around 2027: reality is 4 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":52.27,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2027,"years":4,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 42.4k (−19% vs 2023), 2100 — 26k (−50% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 8.7k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":52.27},"values":{"2050":42.42,"2100":26.03},"low_2100":8.701}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=SVK&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}