{"locations":[{"code":"SUR","name":"Suriname","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/SUR/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.21 in 1950 → 2.25 in 2023 (−64%). Peak: 6.59 in 1960; the latest value is 66% lower. The trend broke around 1963 and 1981: +0.03 → −0.17 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.21,"last":2.249,"peak":{"year":1960,"value":6.59},"breaks":[{"year":1963,"slope_before":0.0343,"slope_after":-0.167},{"year":1981,"slope_before":-0.167,"slope_after":-0.0342}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 8.44k in 1950 → 10.9k in 2023 (+29%). Peak: 13.1k in 1965; the latest value is 17% lower. The trend broke around 1964: direction reversed (+0.32k → −0.03k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":8.441,"last":10.88,"peak":{"year":1965,"value":13.08},"breaks":[{"year":1964,"slope_before":0.317,"slope_after":-0.0349}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 87.4% in 2023 (+87 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2007, above 50% since 2018. Fastest growth in 2018–2023: 55.1% → 87.4%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"first":0,"last":87.4,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2007,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2018,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2018,"to":2023,"start":55.1021,"end":87.4}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 61% in 1960 → 65.8% in 2025 (+4.8 pp). The trend broke around 1966 and 2005: +0.57 → +0.02 → −0.05 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":60.9719,"last":65.7887,"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":0.567,"slope_after":0.0187},{"year":2005,"slope_before":0.0187,"slope_after":-0.0478}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 17,138 PPP dollars in 1990 → 19,357 PPP dollars in 2025 (+13%). Peak: 24,624 PPP dollars in 2013; the latest value is 21% lower. The trend broke around 2001 and 2012: −95 → +773 → −492 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":17137.651,"last":19357.3908,"peak":{"year":2013,"value":24624.022},"breaks":[{"year":2001,"slope_before":-95.3,"slope_after":773},{"year":2012,"slope_before":773,"slope_after":-492}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1968–1978: 5.86 → 4.08. Over the same years: births 12.9k → 11.6k; urban share 65.9% → 66%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":5.863,"end":4.08,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":12.89,"end":11.58},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1968,"to":1978,"start":65.8931,"end":66.0279},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.65 → 2.25; births 11.5k → 10.9k; internet 37.4% → 87.4%; urban share 66.3% → 65.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 24,624 PPP dollars → 19,021 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.651,"end":2.249,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":11.45,"end":10.88},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":37.4,"end":87.4},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":66.2684,"end":65.7562},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":24624.022,"end":19020.8664}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.01); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.82). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.01,"r_changes":0.82,"effective_pairs_changes":13,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 27 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.91); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.19). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":27,"r_levels":-0.915,"r_changes":0.185,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.60); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.45).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.595,"r_changes":0.452,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.58); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.03).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.584,"r_changes":0.034,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +11%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":2.4202,"gap_pct":27.38},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.72,"actual":2.4202,"gap_pct":40.71},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.102,"actual":2.4202,"gap_pct":15.14},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.207,"actual":2.4202,"gap_pct":9.66},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.185,"actual":2.4202,"gap_pct":10.76},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.185,"actual":2.4202,"gap_pct":10.76},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.137,"actual":2.4202,"gap_pct":13.25},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.163,"actual":2.4202,"gap_pct":11.89},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.277,"actual":2.4202,"gap_pct":6.29},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.336,"actual":2.4202,"gap_pct":3.6},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.294,"actual":2.249,"gap_pct":-1.96}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":10.76,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected this level (2.25) already around 2010: reality is 13 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.249,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2010,"years":13,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.25, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.249,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.89 (−16% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.74 (−23% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.24.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.249},"values":{"2050":1.891,"2100":1.742},"low_2100":1.242}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +19%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.864,"actual":10.966,"gap_pct":39.45},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.21,"actual":10.966,"gap_pct":76.59},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.837,"actual":10.966,"gap_pct":39.93},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.949,"actual":10.966,"gap_pct":37.95},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":7.877,"actual":10.966,"gap_pct":39.22},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":9.444,"actual":10.966,"gap_pct":16.12},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":9.247,"actual":10.966,"gap_pct":18.59},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":9.357,"actual":10.966,"gap_pct":17.2},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":9.611,"actual":10.966,"gap_pct":14.1},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":10.107,"actual":10.966,"gap_pct":8.5},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":11.086,"actual":10.88,"gap_pct":-1.86}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":18.59,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 9.42k (−13% vs 2023), 2100 — 6.79k (−38% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 2.57k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":10.88},"values":{"2050":9.416,"2100":6.786},"low_2100":2.566}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=SUR&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}