{"locations":[{"code":"STP","name":"Sao Tome and Principe","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/STP/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.23 in 1950 → 3.64 in 2023 (−41%). Peak: 6.53 in 1974; the latest value is 44% lower. The trend broke around 1977 and 2013: +0.01 → −0.06 → −0.1 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.227,"last":3.644,"peak":{"year":1974,"value":6.534},"breaks":[{"year":1977,"slope_before":0.0149,"slope_after":-0.0557},{"year":2013,"slope_before":-0.0557,"slope_after":-0.0972}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 2.78k in 1950 → 6.51k in 2023 (+134%). Low: 2.64k in 1953; +146% since then. The trend broke around 1968 and 2011: +0.01k → +0.09k → −0.05k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.776,"last":6.507,"trough":{"year":1953,"value":2.644},"breaks":[{"year":1968,"slope_before":0.01,"slope_after":0.0915},{"year":2011,"slope_before":0.0915,"slope_after":-0.0532}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 59.1% in 2024 (+59 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2003, above 50% since 2020. Fastest growth in 2016–2021: 28% → 54.9%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":59.1176,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2003,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2016,"to":2021,"start":28,"end":54.9495}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 15.4% in 1960 → 69.2% in 2025 (+54 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1997. The trend broke around 2010: change slowed down (+1.4 → +0.17 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":15.4298,"last":69.1722,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1997,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":2010,"slope_before":1.37,"slope_after":0.172}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 3,883 PPP dollars in 1990 → 5,459 PPP dollars in 2025 (+41%). The trend broke around 1999 and 2019: −3.8 → +97 → −41 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":3883.2043,"last":5459.2131,"breaks":[{"year":1999,"slope_before":-3.76,"slope_after":96.6},{"year":2019,"slope_before":96.6,"slope_after":-40.7}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2012–2022: 4.66 → 3.70. Over the same years: births 6.89k → 6.4k; internet 21.6% → 58.6%; urban share 67% → 68.4%; GDP per person (PPP) 4,920 PPP dollars → 5,632 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":4.664,"end":3.695,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":6.889,"end":6.399},{"id":"internet_users","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":21.5724,"end":58.5678},{"id":"urban_population","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":67.0336,"end":68.3721},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":4919.5529,"end":5632.1389}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.88); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.39). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.879,"r_changes":0.394,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 27 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.97); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.22). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":27,"r_levels":-0.967,"r_changes":-0.224,"effective_pairs_changes":13,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.93); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.27). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.932,"r_changes":0.266,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.03). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.949,"r_changes":0.035,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 9 revisions (2002–2022) and above in 6; median gap +27%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.831,"actual":4.0479,"gap_pct":42.98},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.908,"actual":4.0479,"gap_pct":39.2},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.1,"actual":4.0479,"gap_pct":30.58},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.1,"actual":4.0479,"gap_pct":30.58},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.177,"actual":4.0479,"gap_pct":27.41},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.794,"actual":4.0479,"gap_pct":6.69},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.356,"actual":4.0479,"gap_pct":-7.07},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.361,"actual":4.0479,"gap_pct":-7.18},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.682,"actual":3.644,"gap_pct":-1.03}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":27.41,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected this level (3.64) already around 2006: reality is 17 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.644,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2006,"years":17,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (3.64, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.644,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.59 (−29% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.97 (−46% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.47.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.644},"values":{"2050":2.59,"2100":1.972},"low_2100":1.472}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 9 revisions (2002–2022) and above in 6; median gap +18%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.366,"actual":6.3407,"gap_pct":18.16},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.053,"actual":6.3407,"gap_pct":25.48},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.086,"actual":6.3407,"gap_pct":24.67},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.086,"actual":6.3407,"gap_pct":24.67},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.269,"actual":6.3407,"gap_pct":20.34},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.565,"actual":6.3407,"gap_pct":-3.42},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.453,"actual":6.3407,"gap_pct":-1.74},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.843,"actual":6.3407,"gap_pct":-7.34},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":6.447,"actual":6.507,"gap_pct":0.93}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":18.16,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (6.51k, 2023) only around 2024: reality is 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":6.507,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 7.53k (+16% vs 2023), 2100 — 6.8k (+5% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 3.03k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":6.507},"values":{"2050":7.525,"2100":6.804},"low_2100":3.031}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=STP&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}