{"locations":[{"code":"SSD","name":"South Sudan","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/SSD/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.12 in 1950 → 3.86 in 2023 (−46%). Peak: 7.39 in 1987; the latest value is 48% lower. The trend broke around 1996: direction reversed (+0.01 → −0.15 a year).","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.124,"last":3.864,"peak":{"year":1987,"value":7.386},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":0.00588,"slope_after":-0.151}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 123k in 1950 → 328k in 2023 (×2.7). Peak: 429k in 2014; the latest value is 23% lower. The trend broke around 2000 and 2012: +3.45k → +10.3k → −11k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":123,"last":328.3,"peak":{"year":2014,"value":429.1},"breaks":[{"year":2000,"slope_before":3.45,"slope_after":10.3},{"year":2012,"slope_before":10.3,"slope_after":-11}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 1.5% in 2012 → 6.7% in 2019 (+5.2 pp). Fastest growth in 2014–2019: 2.6% → 6.7%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":2012,"to":2019,"first":1.5,"last":6.671,"fastest_growth":{"from":2014,"to":2019,"start":2.6,"end":6.671}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 8.7% in 1960 → 21.7% in 2025 (+13 pp). The trend broke around 1984 and 1992: −0.01 → +0.69 → +0.22 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":8.6601,"last":21.6844,"breaks":[{"year":1984,"slope_before":-0.00578,"slope_after":0.691},{"year":1992,"slope_before":0.691,"slope_after":0.219}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1998–2008: 7.08 → 5.57. Over the same years: births 288k → 367k; urban share 15.6% → 17%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1998,"to":2008,"start":7.078,"end":5.569,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1998,"to":2008,"start":287.8,"end":367},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1998,"to":2008,"start":15.5622,"end":17.0301}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 4.94 → 3.86; births 428k → 328k; internet 2.2% (2013); urban share 18.3% → 21.1%.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.939,"end":3.864,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":427.6,"end":328.3},{"id":"internet_users","year":2013,"value":2.2},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":18.2869,"end":21.0738}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.72); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.15). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.724,"r_changes":-0.151,"effective_pairs_changes":26,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet: too few common years with data (8) to speak of a relationship.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","years":8}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.86); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.48). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.86,"r_changes":0.484,"effective_pairs_changes":6,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 4 revisions (2012–2022) and above in none; median gap −6.6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.537,"actual":4.4239,"gap_pct":-2.49},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.733,"actual":4.4239,"gap_pct":-6.53},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.736,"actual":4.4239,"gap_pct":-6.59},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4.251,"actual":3.864,"gap_pct":-9.1}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-6.56,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected today's level (3.86, 2023) only around 2027: reality is 4 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.864,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2027,"years":4,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (3.86, 2023) only around 2028: reality is 5 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.864,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2028,"years":5,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.55 (−34% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.89 (−51% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.39.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.864},"values":{"2050":2.553,"2100":1.894},"low_2100":1.394}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 4 revisions (2012–2022) and above in 1; median gap −26%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":447.09,"actual":334.25,"gap_pct":-25.24},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":470.064,"actual":334.25,"gap_pct":-28.89},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":450.936,"actual":334.25,"gap_pct":-25.88},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":321.4,"actual":328.3,"gap_pct":2.15}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-25.56,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (328k, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":328.3,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 392k (+19% vs 2023), 2100 — 323k (−2% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 150k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":328.3},"values":{"2050":391.9,"2100":322.5},"low_2100":150.3}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=SSD&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}