{"locations":[{"code":"SRB","name":"Serbia","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/SRB/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.93 in 1950 → 1.50 in 2023 (−49%). Low: 1.32 in 2007; +14% since then. Threshold: below 2.1 since 1963. The trend broke around 1957 and 2005: −0.1 → −0.02 → +0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.928,"last":1.5,"trough":{"year":2007,"value":1.316},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1963,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1957,"slope_before":-0.0972,"slope_after":-0.0192},{"year":2005,"slope_before":-0.0192,"slope_after":0.0119}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 153k in 1950 → 59.8k in 2023 (−61%). The trend broke around 1985 and 1997: −1.08k → −2.45k → −0.41k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":153.2,"last":59.84,"breaks":[{"year":1985,"slope_before":-1.08,"slope_after":-2.45},{"year":1997,"slope_before":-2.45,"slope_after":-0.413}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 23.5% in 2004 → 87.7% in 2024 (+64 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2013. Fastest growth in 2011–2016: 42.2% → 67.1%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":2004,"to":2024,"first":23.5,"last":87.6907,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2013,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2011,"to":2016,"start":42.2,"end":67.0568}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 29.1% in 1960 → 62.6% in 2025 (+34 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1990. The trend broke around 1972: change slowed down (+1.1 → +0.47 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":29.0637,"last":62.638,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1990,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1972,"slope_before":1.09,"slope_after":0.474}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 9,445 PPP dollars in 1995 → 27,603 PPP dollars in 2025 (×2.9). The trend broke around 2009 and 2016: +620 → +111 → +1,024 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1995,"to":2025,"first":9444.7516,"last":27603.3916,"breaks":[{"year":2009,"slope_before":620,"slope_after":111},{"year":2016,"slope_before":111,"slope_after":1020}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1950–1960: 2.93 → 2.16. Over the same years: births 153k → 124k; urban share 29.1% (1960); no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1950,"to":1960,"start":2.928,"end":2.155,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1950,"to":1960,"start":153.2,"end":124.1},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","year":1960,"value":29.0637},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.43 → 1.50; births 68.9k → 59.8k; internet 53.5% → 85.4%; urban share 59.6% → 62.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 18,163 PPP dollars → 25,735 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.431,"end":1.5,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":68.93,"end":59.84},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":53.4504,"end":85.3575},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":59.6111,"end":62.1435},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":18163.2047,"end":25735.1335}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.96); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.69). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.957,"r_changes":0.685,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (2004–2023, 20 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.96); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.41). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":2004,"to":2023,"years":20,"r_levels":0.957,"r_changes":0.406,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.93); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.08). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.932,"r_changes":-0.077,"effective_pairs_changes":17,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1995–2023, 29 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.63); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.12).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1995,"to":2023,"years":29,"r_levels":0.629,"r_changes":-0.12,"effective_pairs_changes":27,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 7 revisions (2006–2022) and above in 1; median gap −7%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.4835,"gap_pct":-19.81},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.675,"actual":1.4835,"gap_pct":-11.43},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.535,"actual":1.4835,"gap_pct":-3.36},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.376,"actual":1.4835,"gap_pct":7.81},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.595,"actual":1.4835,"gap_pct":-6.99},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.62,"actual":1.4835,"gap_pct":-8.43},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.528,"actual":1.5,"gap_pct":-1.83}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-6.99,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected today's level (1.50, 2023) only around 2031: reality is 8 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.5,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2031,"years":8,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.56 (+4% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.60 (+6% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.10.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.5},"values":{"2050":1.56,"2100":1.597},"low_2100":1.097}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 7 revisions (2006–2022) and above in none; median gap −29%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":121.109,"actual":65.798,"gap_pct":-45.67},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":109.617,"actual":65.798,"gap_pct":-39.97},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":100.454,"actual":65.798,"gap_pct":-34.5},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":86.987,"actual":65.798,"gap_pct":-24.36},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":89.499,"actual":65.798,"gap_pct":-26.48},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":92.493,"actual":65.798,"gap_pct":-28.86},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":65.195,"actual":59.84,"gap_pct":-8.21}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-28.86,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected today's level (59.8k, 2023) only around 2046: reality is 23 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":59.84,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2046,"years":23,"projection_end":2097}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (59.8k, 2023) only around 2028: reality is 5 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":59.84,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2028,"years":5,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 46.1k (−23% vs 2023), 2100 — 27.7k (−54% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 8.43k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":59.84},"values":{"2050":46.1,"2100":27.7},"low_2100":8.432}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=SRB&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}