{"locations":[{"code":"SPM","name":"Saint Pierre and Miquelon","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/SPM/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 3.86 in 1950 → 1.27 in 2023 (−67%). Peak: 5.99 in 1957; the latest value is 79% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1995, below 1.5 since 2017. The trend broke around 1956 and 1975: +0.3 → −0.15 → −0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":3.857,"last":1.267,"peak":{"year":1957,"value":5.988},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1995,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2017,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1956,"slope_before":0.3,"slope_after":-0.147},{"year":1975,"slope_before":-0.147,"slope_after":-0.022}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 0.12k in 1950 → 0.03k in 2023 (−76%). Peak: 0.2k in 1957; the latest value is 85% lower. The trend broke around 1957 and 1963: +0.01k → −0.01k → 0k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":0.124,"last":0.03,"peak":{"year":1957,"value":0.2},"breaks":[{"year":1957,"slope_before":0.0103,"slope_after":-0.00638},{"year":1963,"slope_before":-0.00638,"slope_after":-0.00174}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1958–1968: 5.78 → 3.22. Over the same years: births 0.19k → 0.12k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1958,"to":1968,"start":5.779,"end":3.22,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1958,"to":1968,"start":0.194,"end":0.124}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.62 → 1.27; births 0.05k → 0.03k.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.622,"end":1.267,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.05,"end":0.03}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.90); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.99). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.905,"r_changes":0.991,"effective_pairs_changes":42,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −19%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.565,"actual":1.267,"gap_pct":-19.04}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-19.04,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.38 (+9% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.48 (+17% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.98.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.267},"values":{"2050":1.377,"2100":1.483},"low_2100":0.983}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 1 revisions (2022–2022) and above in none; median gap −30%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":0.043,"actual":0.03,"gap_pct":-30.23}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-30.23,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.03k (−13% vs 2023), 2100 — 0.01k (−57% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.03},"values":{"2050":0.026,"2100":0.013},"low_2100":0.003}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=SPM&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}