{"locations":[{"code":"SOM","name":"Somalia","page":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/country/SOM/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.25 in 1950 → 6.13 in 2023 (−15%). Peak: 7.66 in 1997; the latest value is 20% lower. The trend broke around 1976 and 2004: −0.01 → +0.02 → −0.08 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.248,"last":6.132,"peak":{"year":1997,"value":7.662},"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":-0.00743,"slope_after":0.0224},{"year":2004,"slope_before":0.0224,"slope_after":-0.0778}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 112k in 1950 → 789k in 2023 (×7.1). The trend broke around 1969: change sped up (+2.73k → +8.84k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":111.8,"last":788.8,"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":2.73,"slope_after":8.84}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 27.9% in 2024 (+28 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2020. Fastest growth in 2019–2024: 2.7% → 27.9%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":27.9402,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2019,"to":2024,"start":2.7314,"end":27.9402}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 17.7% in 1960 → 55.1% in 2025 (+37 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2018. The trend broke around 2007: change sped up (+0.32 → +1.2 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":17.6662,"last":55.1399,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2018,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":2007,"slope_before":0.322,"slope_after":1.2}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 837 PPP dollars in 1991 → 1,404 PPP dollars in 2025 (+68%). Low: 635 PPP dollars in 1994; +121% since then. The trend broke around 2001 and 2018: −14 → +48 → −11 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1991,"to":2025,"first":837.267,"last":1403.8139,"trough":{"year":1994,"value":634.7277},"breaks":[{"year":2001,"slope_before":-14.1,"slope_after":48.4},{"year":2018,"slope_before":48.4,"slope_after":-10.8}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2013–2023: 7.14 → 6.13. Over the same years: births 614k → 789k; internet 1.5% → 26.1%; urban share 41.3% → 54.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 1,198 PPP dollars → 1,402 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":7.14,"end":6.132,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":614.4,"end":788.8},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.5,"end":26.1201},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":41.2593,"end":54.0714},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1197.7217,"end":1401.6474}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.36); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.02).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.361,"r_changes":0.022,"effective_pairs_changes":32,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 27 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.86); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.18). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":27,"r_levels":-0.857,"r_changes":0.179,"effective_pairs_changes":17,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.54); year-to-year changes are related too (r = −0.55). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.541,"r_changes":-0.546,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1991–2023, 33 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.08). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1991,"to":2023,"years":33,"r_levels":-0.922,"r_changes":-0.084,"effective_pairs_changes":26,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +10%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5,"actual":6.716,"gap_pct":34.32},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.08,"actual":6.716,"gap_pct":10.46},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.129,"actual":6.716,"gap_pct":9.58},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.135,"actual":6.716,"gap_pct":30.79},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.135,"actual":6.716,"gap_pct":30.79},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.746,"actual":6.716,"gap_pct":16.88},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.23,"actual":6.716,"gap_pct":7.8},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.099,"actual":6.716,"gap_pct":10.12},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.121,"actual":6.716,"gap_pct":9.72},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":6.123,"actual":6.716,"gap_pct":9.68},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":6.098,"actual":6.132,"gap_pct":0.56}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":10.12,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (6.13) already around 2008: reality is 15 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":6.132,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2008,"years":15,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected this level (6.13) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":6.132,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.60 (−41% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.19 (−64% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.69.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":6.132},"values":{"2050":3.596,"2100":2.191},"low_2100":1.691}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 2 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 9; median gap +38%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":682.649,"actual":696.48,"gap_pct":2.03},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":750.272,"actual":696.48,"gap_pct":-7.17},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":739.119,"actual":696.48,"gap_pct":-5.77},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":428.991,"actual":696.48,"gap_pct":62.35},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":427.879,"actual":696.48,"gap_pct":62.77},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":458.172,"actual":696.48,"gap_pct":52.01},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":488.325,"actual":696.48,"gap_pct":42.63},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":503.733,"actual":696.48,"gap_pct":38.26},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":497.986,"actual":696.48,"gap_pct":39.86},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":644.138,"actual":696.48,"gap_pct":8.13},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":774.627,"actual":788.8,"gap_pct":1.83}],"actual_lower":2,"actual_higher":9,"median_gap_pct":38.26,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected this level (789k) already around 2019: reality is 4 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":788.8,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2019,"years":4,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (789k, 2023) only around 2025: reality is 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":788.8,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.07M (+36% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.06M (+34% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 566k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":788.8},"values":{"2050":1070,"2100":1058},"low_2100":566.4}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.reasonful.com/en/?c=SOM&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}